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AI Could Replace Up to Three Million UK Jobs, But Boost Economy in the Long Run
Artificial intelligence (AI) could ultimately displace between one and three million jobs across the UK, according to a new report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. The study suggests that AI-driven changes to the labor market could gradually increase unemployment, with annual job losses expected to peak between 60,000 and 275,000 as AI technology becomes more widely integrated across various industries.
The report, titled Impact of AI on the Labour Market, projects that despite these displacements, AI will ultimately create new demands and opportunities for workers. “Our best guess is that AI’s peak impact on unemployment is likely to be in the low hundreds of thousands,” the report states, noting that while some jobs may be eliminated, these effects will “be capped and ultimately offset” over time as the economy adjusts and new job categories emerge.
The report indicates that AI is particularly likely to affect fields that rely on cognitive tasks, such as administration, sales, customer service, and data-intensive roles in sectors like finance and banking. The gradual adoption of AI is expected to streamline operations, potentially reducing the need for human labor in these areas.
However, AI’s economic impact could be substantial, with the study estimating it could ultimately grow the UK economy by up to 14% by 2050. In the short term, AI adoption is expected to have a “relatively modest” effect, potentially boosting GDP by around 1% within the next five years, with a predicted rise in unemployment by as much as 180,000 by 2030. In the long term, labor productivity and time savings are expected to contribute to broader economic growth, especially as companies find ways to use AI to reduce costs and improve efficiency.
According to the study, large-scale AI adoption could allow firms to save roughly a quarter of private-sector workforce time, representing the equivalent productivity of six million workers. London, already a major hub for generative AI, holds 30% of Europe’s AI startups, underscoring the UK’s leadership in this growing sector, as highlighted by a June study from venture capital firms Accel and Dealroom.
The report also suggests that the benefits of AI are likely to reach smaller businesses if larger AI companies can develop scalable, cost-effective solutions that smaller enterprises can affordably implement. In addition, AI has the potential to improve the labor supply by enhancing workforce productivity and reducing time lost to health issues or job mismatches.
For AI’s transition to succeed, the study emphasizes the need for government involvement. The researchers recommend that governments proactively provide workers with training and information about workplace changes driven by AI, along with financial safety nets and retraining programs to maximize employment opportunities. The report also calls for contingency plans to address any disruptions if job losses and AI integration prove more challenging than expected.
While AI may lead to significant job transformations, the report sees it as a powerful tool for growth, with the potential to revolutionize productivity and economic output if carefully managed and widely adopted.
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Spain and Portugal Hit by New Storms, Death Toll Rises
Spain and Portugal endured fresh storms and torrential rain on Saturday, claiming another life just days after Storm Leonardo caused deadly flooding and widespread damage.
One person was killed in Portugal as heavy rainfall from Storm Marta swept across the Iberian Peninsula. Authorities reported that a 46-year-old member of the emergency services drowned in a river at Campo Maior, in the central Portalegre district, while attempting to cross a flooded area.
The extreme weather forced three municipalities in Portugal to postpone a presidential vote scheduled for Sunday by a week. Storms in recent weeks have already taken a heavy toll: Storm Kristin killed at least five people in Portugal last week, while Storm Leonardo claimed another victim on Wednesday.
Officials warned that the risk of flooding from the Tagus River in the central Santarém region remained at its highest level. Further south, in Alcácer do Sal, floodwaters from the Sado River had receded to the banks, though the city had previously been submerged, forcing residents to evacuate. Alcácer do Sal lies about 90 kilometres south of Lisbon.
In Spain, Storm Marta prompted the closure of dozens of roads as it moved northeast. In Ávila, a snow plough driver died on Saturday after the vehicle plunged down a 20-metre slope at the El Pico pass. According to the Directorate General of Traffic (DGT), more than 100 roads were closed in the early morning, mostly due to flooding, snow, or ice.
The province of Cadiz was the hardest hit, with several roads rendered impassable, followed by Cordoba and Seville. Snowstorms in mountainous regions led to road closures in Granada, Asturias, Salamanca, and Navarre.
Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) said rainfall would ease on Sunday in many areas but persist in some regions, including the Strait of Gibraltar, the Alboran Sea, Andalusian mountain ranges, the Balearic Islands, northeastern Catalonia, and the Cantabrian Sea. Locally heavy showers are expected, with thunderstorms and hail reported in some areas.
Authorities in both countries continue to urge residents to exercise caution, avoid flooded zones, and stay updated on weather alerts. Emergency services have been deployed to assist those affected by rising waters and to prevent further casualties.
The repeated storms across the Iberian Peninsula highlight the ongoing vulnerability of the region to severe weather events in recent weeks, with communities struggling to recover from back-to-back floods and heavy rains.
Spain and Portugal’s governments have stressed the importance of preparedness, especially in flood-prone regions, as meteorologists warn that unsettled weather may continue to affect the peninsula over the coming days.
News
German Troops in Lithuania Face Hybrid Threats Amid Rising Tensions With Russia
The German army brigade stationed in Lithuania is not under direct fire, but troops report facing hybrid attacks, including surveillance, psychological operations, and drone activity, as tensions with Russia persist in the Baltic region.
Soldiers have described unusual incidents, including mysterious phone calls where conversations from hours earlier were played back by unknown callers. “A comrade phones home, speaks for half an hour, and then gets a call from an unknown number. He answers – and hears his own conversation from earlier, recorded and played back,” Joshua Krebs wrote in his book, Inside Bundeswehr, calling the tactic “uncanny.”
Drones have also reportedly been used to monitor sensitive defence systems and exercises involving Germany’s Battletank Brigade 45 in Lithuania. Last year, a Russian reconnaissance aircraft entered Belarusian airspace during the Bundeswehr’s exercise Iron Wolf, raising concerns about Russian surveillance in the region.
Germany’s Inspector General, Carsten Breuer, described such incidents as “proof of the very real threat to Lithuania.” Federal Defence Minister Boris Pistorius echoed the warning during a meeting with his Lithuanian counterpart in Berlin, stressing that hybrid warfare poses a particular concern for Lithuania and the wider Baltic region.
The risks are compounded by Russian incursions into European airspace. In October 2025, two Russian fighter jets briefly entered Lithuanian airspace for approximately 18 seconds before turning back under NATO escort. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the incident as a “provocation,” with the aircraft thought to have flown from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.
Given the Baltic states’ proximity to Russian territory, the region is under constant NATO monitoring. Germany, Spain, and the UK currently lead the mission to police Baltic airspace, while Germany also supports ground operations, including deploying a mobile air force command post for air surveillance from January to March this year.
Experts note that hybrid attacks often exist in a legal grey area. Unlike conventional military operations, many hybrid actions, such as surveillance or unmarked troop movements, cannot be directly attributed to a single actor, and international law does not automatically classify them as armed attacks under Article 51 of the UN Charter. The aim is often psychological: to provoke, unsettle, and signal presence without triggering a military response.
Incidents reminiscent of the “little green men” in Crimea have occurred in the Baltics. In December, Russian border guards briefly crossed into Estonia without authorization, prompting diplomatic protests rather than military retaliation. Armed men in unmarked uniforms were also spotted near the Estonian border earlier in the year, reinforcing concerns about Russia’s hybrid strategies.
According to Pistorius, these tactics are part of a broader pattern of Russian pressure. “The threat posed by Russia is felt more acutely in Lithuania and across the Baltic region than elsewhere in Europe,” he said, citing provocative airspace incursions and intelligence-gathering operations as ongoing challenges for NATO forces in the region.
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Greenland Mayor Condemns Comedian’s Flag Stunt Amid Tensions with US
The mayor of Greenland’s capital has urged media professionals and content creators to act responsibly after a German comedian attempted to hoist the US flag in Nuuk, drawing outrage from local residents.
Bavarian comedian Maxi Schafroth, 41, tried to raise the Stars and Stripes near the city’s cultural centre on Thursday. Passers-by confronted him after he claimed to be a US official. Witnesses reported that locals reacted angrily, and Schafroth left the scene amid disapproving looks. Local authorities subsequently fined him, according to reports.
Avaaraq Olsen, mayor of Kommuneqarfik Sermersooq, the district that includes Nuuk, described the stunt as “immensely harmful.” She said the incident was particularly upsetting for children and families, who have already been anxious over US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to seize Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory.
“Raising a flag at our capital cultural centre, the flag of a military superpower that for weeks has been implying military force against our country, is not a joke,” Olsen said in a statement. “When you amplify those fears for content, clicks, or laughs, you are not being bold or creative. You are adding to the distress of an already vulnerable population. So, pause before you film. Think before you stage something ‘funny.’ Consider whether your next question or stunt will inform the world or simply make a child cry or a family feel less safe in their own country.”
Schafroth is known in Germany for his work on the satirical programme “Extra Drei,” broadcast by the regional NDR channel, which attracts over one million viewers. NDR expressed regret over the incident in statements to Germany’s Der Spiegel and the Ritzau news agency.
The stunt comes amid heightened international attention on Greenland following Trump’s long-standing territorial interest in the Arctic territory. Trump described owning Greenland as essential to US national security, claiming without evidence that Russia or China would otherwise seize control. His statements sparked a serious diplomatic crisis, considered the most severe in NATO’s history since the alliance was established in 1949.
Although the US president later backtracked on threats to use force, discussions between Washington, Copenhagen, and Nuuk are ongoing. Greenland’s government has been working to manage the stress and anxiety caused by the situation and to reassure its population that their safety remains a priority.
Local authorities stressed that Greenlanders, particularly children, remain worried over the uncertainty surrounding the territory’s international status. Olsen said the flag stunt, though intended as a humorous act, highlighted the need for content creators to consider the real-world impact of their actions on communities already facing heightened tension.
The incident underscores the lingering sensitivity in Greenland following months of international attention, and the city’s leadership has called for respect and caution in public displays that could inflame fear or insecurity among residents.
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