Business
Eurozone Faces Sharp Stagflation Risk as Iran Conflict Drives Costs Higher
The Iran conflict has handed Europe its most punishing economic combination in years — stagflation. With input costs surging, output stalling and confidence collapsing, the European Central Bank’s window of stability appears to have closed.
The war in Iran, along with the surge in oil prices it has triggered, is already taking a toll on eurozone business activity, supply chains and corporate confidence. Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys from S&P Global released Tuesday showed eurozone growth slowed in March as energy costs hit their highest level in more than three years.
The headline eurozone composite PMI fell to 50.5, down from 51.9 in February and below the 51.0 consensus. While the number still indicates minimal growth, economists are concerned about the concurrent spike in input costs. Rising energy prices, fuel expenses and maritime freight disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East pushed inflation among manufacturers and service providers to its fastest pace since February 2023.
Supplier delivery times lengthened to the worst level since August 2022, as companies struggled to secure essential inputs. “The flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. He added that the drop in future output expectations was the largest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the services sector, where new orders declined for the first time in eight months. Manufacturing has shown modest resilience as firms frontloaded purchases to mitigate potential disruptions. Inventories fell as businesses tried to buffer against further supply shocks.
Germany remains in expansion territory, with its composite PMI at 51.9, supported by manufacturing, which reached a 45-month high. Analysts say this surge is largely due to companies stockpiling materials to hedge against disruptions rather than genuine demand growth. German services activity weakened, reflecting rising costs and falling new business.
France presents a bleaker picture. The flash France Composite PMI dropped to 48.3, indicating contraction. Both manufacturing and services activity fell, with new orders declining at the fastest pace in 15 months. Input costs in France surged to the highest since November 2023, but limited pricing power prevented companies from passing costs to customers, squeezing margins.
The PMI data highlight a growing dilemma for the ECB. Growth across the eurozone is approaching stagnation while inflation accelerates due to supply-side shocks rather than demand. Policymakers face the risk of stagflation if energy prices remain high and supply-chain disruptions continue. The trajectory of the Iran conflict and its effect on global energy markets will largely determine the eurozone’s economic outlook in the months ahead.
Business
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Business
China’s June Exports Surge 27% as AI Demand and Vehicle Shipments Boost Trade
China’s exports posted stronger-than-expected growth in June, rising 27 percent from a year earlier as booming demand linked to artificial intelligence and robust overseas sales of vehicles and technology products lifted trade, according to data released by the country’s customs agency.
The June performance marked a sharp acceleration from the 19.4 percent annual increase recorded in May and exceeded economists’ expectations. Imports also gathered pace, climbing 36 percent year on year after a 27.4 percent rise in May. Analysts said higher import costs resulting from the conflict involving Iran contributed to the increase in import values.
China’s monthly trade surplus widened to $125.6 billion in June from $105.4 billion in May, reflecting continued strength in exports despite concerns about slowing domestic demand.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics at Capital Economics, said trade values experienced another significant increase during June.
“Trade values took another big leg up in June,” he said in a research note, adding that higher semiconductor prices driven by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence played a major role. He also noted that demand for Chinese goods remained resilient beyond the technology sector.
Exports of electric vehicles, conventional automobiles and other advanced technology products continued to support manufacturing activity as global investment in artificial intelligence increased demand for semiconductors, electronic components and related equipment.
The export sector has helped offset weaker domestic consumption and investment, which continue to face pressure from China’s prolonged property market downturn.
During the first six months of 2026, exports increased 17.6 percent compared with the same period last year, while imports rose 26.6 percent, according to customs figures.
China’s expanding trade surplus has continued to draw attention from policymakers in the United States and Europe, where concerns have grown over widening trade imbalances. In response to higher tariffs and other trade barriers, many Chinese manufacturers have expanded production facilities overseas, particularly in Europe, while exports to Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa have continued to grow.
June exports to Southeast Asia climbed nearly 35 percent from a year earlier. Shipments to the European Union increased by more than 18 percent, while exports to Latin America rose over 28 percent. Exports to the United States advanced almost 14 percent, partly reflecting weaker shipments during the same period last year after higher tariffs were introduced following President Donald Trump’s return to office.
Wei Li, Head of Multi-Asset Investments at BNP Paribas Securities China, said export growth is expected to continue but warned that future performance remains vulnerable to changing global demand and regulatory measures affecting key industries such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence.
China is scheduled to release its April-to-June economic growth figures on Wednesday. The government has set a growth target of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent for 2026, slightly below the 5 percent expansion recorded last year. The International Monetary Fund recently raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 4.6 percent but expects growth to slow to 4.1 percent in 2027 as policymakers continue efforts to stimulate consumer spending.
Business
Property Taxes Across Europe Vary Widely, with Belgium Among the Costliest and Cyprus the Most Affordable
Buying property in Europe can involve far more than the purchase price, as homeowners face a range of taxes from acquisition through ownership and eventual sale. A review by the Global Property Guide shows significant differences in how European countries tax real estate, with Belgium emerging as one of the most expensive markets for property owners, while Cyprus and Malta remain among the least heavily taxed.
Property owners across Europe may encounter four main taxes: transfer tax at the time of purchase, annual property tax, tax on rental income and capital gains tax when selling. The amount paid depends not only on tax rates but also on how each country calculates taxable values, making direct comparisons challenging.
Rental income taxes show some of the widest differences across the continent. For non-resident landlords earning €1,500 a month in rent, Denmark imposes the highest tax rate at 42.11 percent, followed by the Netherlands at 36 percent and Finland at 30 percent. Cyprus does not charge tax at that income level, while Luxembourg applies a rate of just 2.94 percent.
For higher rental income of €12,000 per month, Belgium records the highest tax burden at 47.27 percent. Denmark follows with 43.22 percent, while Germany and Greece each apply rates of 41 percent. Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands maintain relatively stable tax rates regardless of rental income, unlike countries with progressive tax systems such as Austria, where rental earnings are taxed alongside personal income.
Transfer taxes also differ sharply. Belgium charges up to 12.5 percent in some regions, meaning buyers of a €500,000 property could pay as much as €62,500 in tax before taking ownership. Regional incentives for owner-occupiers can reduce that amount, particularly in Wallonia and Brussels. At the opposite end of the scale, Estonia and the Czech Republic impose no transfer tax, while Lithuania’s acquisition costs are around 0.4 percent of the purchase price.
Annual property taxes vary because countries use different methods to determine taxable values. Spain’s maximum property tax rate can reach 4.8 percent, although it is based on cadastral values rather than current market prices. In the United Kingdom, council tax on a home worth about €300,000 generally ranges between €2,000 and €3,200 annually. France, Belgium and Spain typically collect lower annual amounts because taxes are calculated using older assessed property values. Cyprus and Malta do not levy annual property taxes.
Capital gains taxes also differ considerably. Denmark taxes profits from property sales at rates of up to 52.07 percent when gains are included with personal income. Germany offers one of Europe’s most favourable systems, exempting gains entirely if the property has been owned for more than 10 years. Malta applies a different approach by charging a transaction tax on the sale price rather than taxing the capital gain itself.
The report concludes that Belgium remains one of Europe’s most heavily taxed property markets due to its combination of high purchase duties, rental income taxes and ongoing ownership costs. Cyprus and Malta continue to rank among the most attractive destinations for property investors because of their lighter tax regimes, highlighting the wide differences that remain across Europe’s real estate markets.
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