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Eurozone Faces Sharp Stagflation Risk as Iran Conflict Drives Costs Higher

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The Iran conflict has handed Europe its most punishing economic combination in years — stagflation. With input costs surging, output stalling and confidence collapsing, the European Central Bank’s window of stability appears to have closed.

The war in Iran, along with the surge in oil prices it has triggered, is already taking a toll on eurozone business activity, supply chains and corporate confidence. Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys from S&P Global released Tuesday showed eurozone growth slowed in March as energy costs hit their highest level in more than three years.

The headline eurozone composite PMI fell to 50.5, down from 51.9 in February and below the 51.0 consensus. While the number still indicates minimal growth, economists are concerned about the concurrent spike in input costs. Rising energy prices, fuel expenses and maritime freight disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East pushed inflation among manufacturers and service providers to its fastest pace since February 2023.

Supplier delivery times lengthened to the worst level since August 2022, as companies struggled to secure essential inputs. “The flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. He added that the drop in future output expectations was the largest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the services sector, where new orders declined for the first time in eight months. Manufacturing has shown modest resilience as firms frontloaded purchases to mitigate potential disruptions. Inventories fell as businesses tried to buffer against further supply shocks.

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Germany remains in expansion territory, with its composite PMI at 51.9, supported by manufacturing, which reached a 45-month high. Analysts say this surge is largely due to companies stockpiling materials to hedge against disruptions rather than genuine demand growth. German services activity weakened, reflecting rising costs and falling new business.

France presents a bleaker picture. The flash France Composite PMI dropped to 48.3, indicating contraction. Both manufacturing and services activity fell, with new orders declining at the fastest pace in 15 months. Input costs in France surged to the highest since November 2023, but limited pricing power prevented companies from passing costs to customers, squeezing margins.

The PMI data highlight a growing dilemma for the ECB. Growth across the eurozone is approaching stagnation while inflation accelerates due to supply-side shocks rather than demand. Policymakers face the risk of stagflation if energy prices remain high and supply-chain disruptions continue. The trajectory of the Iran conflict and its effect on global energy markets will largely determine the eurozone’s economic outlook in the months ahead.

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Kennedy Center to Close for Repairs After Judge Blocks Trump Naming Plan

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Most of Washington’s Kennedy Center will close for renovations after its board voted Tuesday to shut the landmark performing arts venue, hours after a federal judge blocked another attempt to add President Donald Trump’s name to the building.

The decision followed a ruling by US District Judge Christopher Cooper, who said the Kennedy Center board could not install a memorial to Trump or change the institution’s name without approval from Congress. The judge had previously ordered Trump’s name removed after it was added to the building’s facade.

“Simply put, Defendants cannot install memorials for President Trump or anyone or anything else at the Kennedy Center without Congress’s blessing,” Cooper wrote in his latest ruling.

Trump has said the renovation work, for which Congress has allocated $257 million, will not proceed unless the courts allow the board to move forward with plans to recognize him on the building. He said the Justice Department would appeal Cooper’s decision.

The board, which Trump chairs after replacing members with his appointees, voted to close the venue as it faces extensive repair needs and financial difficulties. Trump participated in the board’s virtual meeting, where the dispute over the institution’s future produced tense exchanges with Rep. Joyce Beatty, an Ohio Democrat and ex-officio board member who has opposed efforts to add Trump’s name.

The Kennedy Center has argued that the building requires major work. A partial ceiling collapse in a main hallway earlier this month added to concerns about the condition of the facility. Reuters reported that the closure could last as long as two years.

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The dispute over the building’s name began after Trump’s return to the White House. The board first added his name to the facade, but Cooper ruled in May that the change was unlawful because Congress had established the Kennedy Center as a memorial to President John F. Kennedy. Workers removed Trump’s name in June, leaving scaffolding and a tarp covering part of the facade.

In August, the board voted to add an inscription describing the center as restored and renovated by Trump and proposed renaming the plaza outside the venue. It also considered another inscription if the Trump Kennedy Center Fund raised $100 million. Cooper’s latest ruling blocked those plans.

The court dispute has coincided with financial problems at the institution. Court filings have described declining ticket sales and contributions, while several artists and organisations have canceled performances or moved activities elsewhere. The board has argued that Trump’s involvement and fundraising are important to the center’s financial future.

The Kennedy Center, which opened in 1971, hosts major performing arts organisations and events including the annual Kennedy Center Honors. Its future now depends on the renovation process, the court appeal and decisions over how the institution will be financed and managed.

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Brent Crude Climbs Above $108 as Hormuz Strike and Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Raise Supply Fears

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Brent crude prices climbed above $108 a barrel on Monday as growing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz raised fresh concerns about global oil supplies.

Brent crude for October and November deliveries rose by more than 3% during morning trading, extending gains from the previous week when prices moved back above the $100 mark. US West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery also advanced, rising about 2.3% to around $102 a barrel.

The latest increase followed Saudi Arabia’s announcement that its East-West oil pipeline had been temporarily shut after drone attacks. The pipeline transports crude across Saudi Arabia to ports on the Red Sea, providing an alternative route that allows exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

The closure comes as shipping through the strategic waterway faces growing risks. An unnamed merchant vessel was struck in the strait on Sunday, killing one crew member and injuring three others, according to Iranian authorities.

Shipping conditions have changed significantly since the conflict began. Vessels are required to obtain permission from Iran to pass through the waterway, while Tehran is also considering a system for charging transit service fees. Ships that do not comply have faced attacks, while US forces have carried out periodic strikes along Iran’s coastline.

Diplomatic efforts to address the situation have also suffered a setback. Oman postponed planned talks between Iran and Gulf states concerning the future of the waterway, which is one of the world’s most important routes for seaborne oil shipments.

The disruption is already affecting fuel markets beyond the Gulf. In the United States, the national average price of diesel surpassed $6 a gallon on Friday for the first time, rising from about $5.85 a week earlier and roughly 60% above the $3.71 recorded a year ago.

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US petrol prices have also reached record levels, averaging about $4.22 a gallon after rising over the Labor Day weekend.

President Donald Trump has blamed Ukraine for part of the diesel supply pressure, saying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure. Ukraine has attacked more than 20 Russian refinery targets this summer, while Russia responded by banning diesel exports.

According to Lipow Oil Associates, Russia’s export restrictions have removed about 800,000 barrels per day of diesel supply, while disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have affected around 1.2 million barrels per day.

The broader impact on crude supplies is even greater. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from about 20 million barrels per day before the war to roughly 7 million. The conflicts have also disrupted refineries representing about 5 million barrels per day of capacity, adding to pressure on global fuel markets.

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Google Plans €13 Billion Investment in Finland Data Centres

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Google is set to invest at least €13 billion in data centres and digital infrastructure in Finland over the next two years, marking the company’s largest single investment in Europe as it expands its capacity for artificial intelligence and other digital services.

The investment will support data centres and related infrastructure in the Finnish municipalities of Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos and Vaala. Google also plans to fund clean energy projects as well as initiatives focused on biodiversity, education, research and workforce development.

The company said the decision reflects Finland’s strong position in developing energy-efficient infrastructure for artificial intelligence. The new facilities will support a range of Google services, including its Gemini chatbot.

Construction is expected to take place during 2027 and 2028. Google estimates the investment could contribute around €3.6 billion annually to Finland’s gross domestic product and support more than 37,000 jobs. About 16,000 of those positions are expected to be linked directly to construction work.

Once construction is completed, Google expects its facilities and related economic activity to support around 7,000 jobs each year. These positions are expected to include technical and facility roles, equipment suppliers and workers in nearby shops, restaurants and other services.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo welcomed the announcement, saying the investment demonstrated the country’s strengths and could generate benefits beyond the immediate spending.

“The value of the data economy extends far beyond direct investment into spurring innovation, research and development,” Orpo said. He added that closer cooperation with Google could produce long-term benefits for both sides.

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Why Finland is attracting data centres

Finland’s climate and energy supply are major factors behind its appeal to technology companies. Data centres consume large amounts of electricity and produce substantial heat, making cooling a major operational cost.

The country’s cold climate can help reduce cooling requirements, while its energy system includes nuclear power, wind and hydropower. The combination of relatively stable electricity supplies and favourable conditions for cooling has encouraged a growing number of data centre projects across Finland.

Google has maintained a presence in the country since 2009, when it acquired a former paper mill in the coastal city of Hamina and converted the site into a data centre. The company has expanded the facility over the years.

The latest investment comes as Finland faces weak economic growth and record unemployment. For Orpo’s government, attracting major technology investments has become an important economic priority.

With the country’s data economy offering prospects for investment, employment and research, Google’s announcement is expected to strengthen Finland’s position as a major European hub for digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence.

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