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Eurozone Faces Sharp Stagflation Risk as Iran Conflict Drives Costs Higher

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The Iran conflict has handed Europe its most punishing economic combination in years — stagflation. With input costs surging, output stalling and confidence collapsing, the European Central Bank’s window of stability appears to have closed.

The war in Iran, along with the surge in oil prices it has triggered, is already taking a toll on eurozone business activity, supply chains and corporate confidence. Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys from S&P Global released Tuesday showed eurozone growth slowed in March as energy costs hit their highest level in more than three years.

The headline eurozone composite PMI fell to 50.5, down from 51.9 in February and below the 51.0 consensus. While the number still indicates minimal growth, economists are concerned about the concurrent spike in input costs. Rising energy prices, fuel expenses and maritime freight disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East pushed inflation among manufacturers and service providers to its fastest pace since February 2023.

Supplier delivery times lengthened to the worst level since August 2022, as companies struggled to secure essential inputs. “The flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. He added that the drop in future output expectations was the largest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the services sector, where new orders declined for the first time in eight months. Manufacturing has shown modest resilience as firms frontloaded purchases to mitigate potential disruptions. Inventories fell as businesses tried to buffer against further supply shocks.

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Germany remains in expansion territory, with its composite PMI at 51.9, supported by manufacturing, which reached a 45-month high. Analysts say this surge is largely due to companies stockpiling materials to hedge against disruptions rather than genuine demand growth. German services activity weakened, reflecting rising costs and falling new business.

France presents a bleaker picture. The flash France Composite PMI dropped to 48.3, indicating contraction. Both manufacturing and services activity fell, with new orders declining at the fastest pace in 15 months. Input costs in France surged to the highest since November 2023, but limited pricing power prevented companies from passing costs to customers, squeezing margins.

The PMI data highlight a growing dilemma for the ECB. Growth across the eurozone is approaching stagnation while inflation accelerates due to supply-side shocks rather than demand. Policymakers face the risk of stagflation if energy prices remain high and supply-chain disruptions continue. The trajectory of the Iran conflict and its effect on global energy markets will largely determine the eurozone’s economic outlook in the months ahead.

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Anthropic’s $800 Billion Surge Puts AI Powerhouse at Center of Growth and Safety Debate

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Artificial intelligence firm Anthropic has rapidly emerged as one of the most valuable players in the global technology sector, with investor interest pushing its valuation to around $800 billion, placing it alongside rivals such as OpenAI.

The San Francisco-based company has seen its private valuation more than double within months, supported by a reported revenue run-rate of $30 billion. As speculation grows around a potential public listing later this year, Anthropic is drawing attention not only for its financial rise but also for the broader implications of its technology.

At the centre of its growth is a strategic shift from research-focused development to enterprise-driven applications. Businesses are increasingly adopting Anthropic’s AI systems, particularly its Claude models, to streamline complex workflows and automate operations. This focus on corporate clients has distinguished the company from competitors targeting mass consumer markets.

Analysts say this enterprise-first approach has helped justify its soaring valuation. Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, noted that Anthropic’s business model is built around long-term integration into company systems, making its tools difficult to replace once adopted. He compared the strategy to that of Microsoft during the early expansion of enterprise software.

The company’s latest AI model, known as Mythos, has further accelerated interest while also raising concerns. Praised for its advanced reasoning capabilities, the system is seen as a major step forward in automation and problem-solving. However, its ability to identify vulnerabilities in software has sparked warnings about potential misuse.

Jamie Dimon has cautioned that such capabilities could be exploited for cyberattacks targeting financial institutions. These concerns highlight what experts describe as a “security paradox,” where the same technology that strengthens cybersecurity could also pose risks if misused.

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The issue has drawn attention at the highest levels of government. Reports indicate that Scott Bessent and Jerome Powell recently held discussions with major banking executives in Washington to address potential systemic risks linked to advanced AI systems.

Anthropic has responded by imposing strict controls on access to its most powerful tools, aiming to balance innovation with safety. This cautious approach reflects the company’s broader philosophy, which includes resisting requests to deploy its technology for offensive military purposes. That stance has reportedly limited opportunities with the US defense sector.

Despite these challenges, investor confidence remains strong as the company prepares for a possible stock market debut. An initial public offering would provide funding to support the high costs of developing next-generation AI models.

As Anthropic moves closer to entering public markets, it faces the challenge of maintaining rapid growth while addressing concerns about the societal and security impact of its technology.

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Oil Prices Plunge as Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Open During Ceasefire

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Global oil prices fell sharply on Friday after Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz would remain fully open for the duration of the current ceasefire with the United States.

In a statement shared on social media, Araghchi said the vital waterway was “completely open,” signalling a temporary easing of tensions that had disrupted global energy flows in recent weeks. The announcement triggered an immediate reaction across financial markets, with oil benchmarks dropping by more than 10% in under two hours.

At one point during trading, US crude, known as West Texas Intermediate, fell over 12% to around $82 per barrel, while Brent crude declined roughly 10% to near $88. The steep fall reflects renewed confidence that oil shipments from the Gulf could resume, easing supply concerns that had pushed prices higher during the conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, handling a significant share of global oil and gas shipments. Any disruption to traffic through the narrow passage has a direct impact on international markets, making Friday’s announcement particularly significant.

Donald Trump welcomed the development, describing it as a positive step while maintaining that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place until negotiations are finalised. He said progress had already been made in talks with Tehran and suggested that a broader agreement could be reached soon, though no specific details have been disclosed.

The news also lifted investor sentiment, with major US stock indices rallying in early trading. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both climbed more than 1%, reaching record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by over 1.7%.

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Market analysts said the sharp drop in oil prices reflects expectations that supply constraints may ease if the ceasefire holds and shipping activity resumes at scale. However, uncertainty remains over how quickly normal traffic levels can be restored through the strait.

The broader outlook now hinges on the progress of ongoing diplomatic efforts. Investors are increasingly betting that a more lasting resolution to the conflict could be reached before the end of the month, though risks remain if negotiations stall or tensions flare again.

With markets heading into the weekend, traders have limited time to fully assess the implications of the announcement, leaving room for further volatility as new developments emerge.

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TSMC Posts Record Profits as AI Chip Demand Surges

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Taiwan-based semiconductor giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported a fourth consecutive quarter of record profits on Thursday, driven by strong global demand for artificial intelligence chips and steady orders from major technology clients.

The world’s largest contract chipmaker said first-quarter net profit jumped 58.3 percent year-on-year to NT$572.48 billion ($18.11 billion), surpassing analyst expectations. Revenue also rose sharply, climbing 35.1 percent to NT$1.13 trillion, reflecting continued growth in advanced chip manufacturing.

Company chairman and chief executive C. C. Wei said demand linked to artificial intelligence remained a key driver of performance. He noted that orders for high-end chips used in AI systems continue to grow at a rapid pace, supporting both revenue and profitability.

TSMC’s margins remained strong during the quarter, with gross margin reaching 66.2 percent and net profit margin standing at 50.5 percent. Advanced technologies, defined as chips built on 7-nanometre processes and below, accounted for nearly three-quarters of total wafer revenue.

The company’s customer base includes leading global firms such as Apple and Nvidia, both of which have increased their reliance on high-performance chips to power devices and AI applications.

Chief financial officer Wendell Huang said strong demand for cutting-edge manufacturing processes had supported first-quarter results and is expected to continue into the next quarter. TSMC forecast second-quarter revenue between $39 billion and $40.2 billion, up from $35.9 billion in the first quarter.

Analysts say the continued expansion of AI infrastructure is helping offset potential weakness in other areas, including consumer electronics. Ben Barringer of Quilter Cheviot noted that while high memory prices could dampen demand for some devices, the surge in AI-related spending is likely to sustain growth.

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Despite the positive outlook, TSMC flagged potential risks linked to geopolitical tensions. The company warned that rising costs for key materials, including chemicals and industrial gases, could affect profitability in the coming months. Wei said it was too early to determine the full financial impact.

TSMC added that it does not expect immediate disruption to its operations, citing a diversified supply chain and sufficient inventory of essential materials such as helium and hydrogen. The company has also been working to expand its supplier network to improve resilience against future shocks.

With demand for advanced chips continuing to rise, TSMC remains central to the global semiconductor industry, even as it navigates cost pressures and an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

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