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EBRD Cuts Growth Forecast as Middle East Conflict Drives Inflation and Energy Shock

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Economic growth across regions covered by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is set to slow more sharply than previously expected, as rising energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East push inflation higher and weaken momentum across emerging markets.

In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the EBRD said aggregate growth across its regions is now projected at 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025 and 0.5 percentage points below its earlier February forecast. Growth is expected to recover modestly to 3.6% in 2027, although that too has been revised slightly lower.

The bank, which finances projects across central and eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, said the outlook has been disrupted by surging oil and gas prices, instability in shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and widening energy cost gaps between Europe and the United States.

The EBRD estimated that growth across its economies slowed to 2.9% in the first quarter of 2026, with weaker-than-expected performance recorded in several large markets including Egypt, Kazakhstan, Romania, Turkey and Ukraine.

Chief economist Beata Javorcik said the latest shock has hit already fragile economies. “The conflict in the Middle East has delivered a new shock to regions already navigating weakness in manufacturing industries and fragile fiscal positions,” she said.

Inflation has also reaccelerated after easing late last year. The EBRD reported that average inflation across its regions rose to 6.4% between February and April 2026, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. Higher energy and food costs were identified as the primary drivers, while currency depreciation against the US dollar added further pressure in several economies.

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The bank warned that inflation could remain elevated for longer than previously expected, particularly in emerging markets where households spend a larger share of income on food and energy compared with advanced economies.

To cushion the impact, nearly two-thirds of EBRD economies have introduced measures such as fuel price caps, tax relief and targeted subsidies. However, the bank cautioned that these steps are placing additional strain on public finances at a time when borrowing costs are already rising.

Higher energy bills, tighter global financial conditions and elevated debt levels are compounding fiscal pressures across many member countries.

Looking ahead, the EBRD warned that a prolonged conflict could further disrupt supply chains, push energy prices higher and weaken investment flows. Such developments, it said, would weigh on already subdued growth prospects across its regions.

For now, policymakers face a difficult balance between supporting households and maintaining fiscal stability, as external shocks continue to reshape the economic outlook.

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Europe’s Cooling Energy Demand Doubles as Record Heatwaves Drive Air Conditioning Use

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Household energy consumption for cooling across the European Union has nearly doubled in six years as rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves increase reliance on air conditioning, according to new data highlighting the growing impact of climate change on energy demand.

The figures come as June 2026 became the hottest June ever recorded in western Europe and the second warmest globally, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Globally, 2024, 2023 and 2025 now rank as the three hottest years on record.

EU household energy consumption for space cooling climbed from 40.5 thousand terajoules (TJ) in 2018 to 80.4 thousand TJ in 2024, an increase of 99%. Compared with 2010, when consumption stood at just 15.5 thousand TJ, cooling-related energy use has surged by 420% over the past 14 years.

The increase has not been uniform across Europe. Austria recorded the largest percentage rise, with household cooling energy consumption jumping from 22 TJ in 2018 to 253 TJ in 2024, representing an increase of more than 1,000%. Analysts noted that such dramatic growth partly reflects the country’s previously low use of air conditioning.

Among EU member states, Czechia recorded a 244% increase, followed by Italy with a 193% rise. Energy consumption for cooling also more than doubled in Hungary, Finland, Spain, Slovenia and Greece during the same period.

In contrast, France registered a 52% increase, while Germany saw relatively modest growth of 8%.

Although cooling demand is rising rapidly, it still accounts for less than 1% of total household energy consumption across the EU, averaging 0.84% in 2024. The share is considerably higher in warmer regions.

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Cyprus recorded the highest proportion, with 16% of household energy used for cooling, followed by Malta at 15% and EU candidate country Albania at 13.4%. Greece devoted 7.4% of household energy to cooling, while Spain, Italy and Croatia also reported shares above 2%.

Italy remains the EU’s largest consumer of cooling energy, using 26.3 thousand TJ in 2024, equivalent to nearly one-third of the bloc’s total cooling energy demand. Spain ranked second with 14.3 thousand TJ, while Turkey, included among candidate countries, recorded the third-highest level.

The surge in cooling demand has already affected electricity markets. During the June 2026 heatwaves, power consumption rose sharply across Europe’s four largest economies. France experienced the largest increase, with grid operator RTE estimating that every one-degree Celsius rise in temperature adds between 0.7 and 1 gigawatt of electricity demand. Cooling needs alone contributed an estimated additional 10 to 14 gigawatts during the hottest days.

Higher electricity demand, combined with reduced wind generation in Germany and temporary cuts to French nuclear output caused by unusually warm river water, pushed wholesale electricity prices above €200 per megawatt-hour in Germany, nearly €160 in France and more than €110 in Spain.

Scientists continue to warn that Europe is warming at roughly twice the global average, making the continent increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat and placing growing pressure on energy systems as cooling becomes an essential part of daily life.

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China’s June Exports Surge 27% as AI Demand and Vehicle Shipments Boost Trade

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China’s exports posted stronger-than-expected growth in June, rising 27 percent from a year earlier as booming demand linked to artificial intelligence and robust overseas sales of vehicles and technology products lifted trade, according to data released by the country’s customs agency.

The June performance marked a sharp acceleration from the 19.4 percent annual increase recorded in May and exceeded economists’ expectations. Imports also gathered pace, climbing 36 percent year on year after a 27.4 percent rise in May. Analysts said higher import costs resulting from the conflict involving Iran contributed to the increase in import values.

China’s monthly trade surplus widened to $125.6 billion in June from $105.4 billion in May, reflecting continued strength in exports despite concerns about slowing domestic demand.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics at Capital Economics, said trade values experienced another significant increase during June.

“Trade values took another big leg up in June,” he said in a research note, adding that higher semiconductor prices driven by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence played a major role. He also noted that demand for Chinese goods remained resilient beyond the technology sector.

Exports of electric vehicles, conventional automobiles and other advanced technology products continued to support manufacturing activity as global investment in artificial intelligence increased demand for semiconductors, electronic components and related equipment.

The export sector has helped offset weaker domestic consumption and investment, which continue to face pressure from China’s prolonged property market downturn.

During the first six months of 2026, exports increased 17.6 percent compared with the same period last year, while imports rose 26.6 percent, according to customs figures.

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China’s expanding trade surplus has continued to draw attention from policymakers in the United States and Europe, where concerns have grown over widening trade imbalances. In response to higher tariffs and other trade barriers, many Chinese manufacturers have expanded production facilities overseas, particularly in Europe, while exports to Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa have continued to grow.

June exports to Southeast Asia climbed nearly 35 percent from a year earlier. Shipments to the European Union increased by more than 18 percent, while exports to Latin America rose over 28 percent. Exports to the United States advanced almost 14 percent, partly reflecting weaker shipments during the same period last year after higher tariffs were introduced following President Donald Trump’s return to office.

Wei Li, Head of Multi-Asset Investments at BNP Paribas Securities China, said export growth is expected to continue but warned that future performance remains vulnerable to changing global demand and regulatory measures affecting key industries such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence.

China is scheduled to release its April-to-June economic growth figures on Wednesday. The government has set a growth target of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent for 2026, slightly below the 5 percent expansion recorded last year. The International Monetary Fund recently raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 4.6 percent but expects growth to slow to 4.1 percent in 2027 as policymakers continue efforts to stimulate consumer spending.

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Property Taxes Across Europe Vary Widely, with Belgium Among the Costliest and Cyprus the Most Affordable

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Buying property in Europe can involve far more than the purchase price, as homeowners face a range of taxes from acquisition through ownership and eventual sale. A review by the Global Property Guide shows significant differences in how European countries tax real estate, with Belgium emerging as one of the most expensive markets for property owners, while Cyprus and Malta remain among the least heavily taxed.

Property owners across Europe may encounter four main taxes: transfer tax at the time of purchase, annual property tax, tax on rental income and capital gains tax when selling. The amount paid depends not only on tax rates but also on how each country calculates taxable values, making direct comparisons challenging.

Rental income taxes show some of the widest differences across the continent. For non-resident landlords earning €1,500 a month in rent, Denmark imposes the highest tax rate at 42.11 percent, followed by the Netherlands at 36 percent and Finland at 30 percent. Cyprus does not charge tax at that income level, while Luxembourg applies a rate of just 2.94 percent.

For higher rental income of €12,000 per month, Belgium records the highest tax burden at 47.27 percent. Denmark follows with 43.22 percent, while Germany and Greece each apply rates of 41 percent. Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands maintain relatively stable tax rates regardless of rental income, unlike countries with progressive tax systems such as Austria, where rental earnings are taxed alongside personal income.

Transfer taxes also differ sharply. Belgium charges up to 12.5 percent in some regions, meaning buyers of a €500,000 property could pay as much as €62,500 in tax before taking ownership. Regional incentives for owner-occupiers can reduce that amount, particularly in Wallonia and Brussels. At the opposite end of the scale, Estonia and the Czech Republic impose no transfer tax, while Lithuania’s acquisition costs are around 0.4 percent of the purchase price.

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Annual property taxes vary because countries use different methods to determine taxable values. Spain’s maximum property tax rate can reach 4.8 percent, although it is based on cadastral values rather than current market prices. In the United Kingdom, council tax on a home worth about €300,000 generally ranges between €2,000 and €3,200 annually. France, Belgium and Spain typically collect lower annual amounts because taxes are calculated using older assessed property values. Cyprus and Malta do not levy annual property taxes.

Capital gains taxes also differ considerably. Denmark taxes profits from property sales at rates of up to 52.07 percent when gains are included with personal income. Germany offers one of Europe’s most favourable systems, exempting gains entirely if the property has been owned for more than 10 years. Malta applies a different approach by charging a transaction tax on the sale price rather than taxing the capital gain itself.

The report concludes that Belgium remains one of Europe’s most heavily taxed property markets due to its combination of high purchase duties, rental income taxes and ongoing ownership costs. Cyprus and Malta continue to rank among the most attractive destinations for property investors because of their lighter tax regimes, highlighting the wide differences that remain across Europe’s real estate markets.

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