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EBRD Cuts Growth Forecast as Middle East Conflict Drives Inflation and Energy Shock

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Economic growth across regions covered by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is set to slow more sharply than previously expected, as rising energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East push inflation higher and weaken momentum across emerging markets.

In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the EBRD said aggregate growth across its regions is now projected at 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025 and 0.5 percentage points below its earlier February forecast. Growth is expected to recover modestly to 3.6% in 2027, although that too has been revised slightly lower.

The bank, which finances projects across central and eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, said the outlook has been disrupted by surging oil and gas prices, instability in shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and widening energy cost gaps between Europe and the United States.

The EBRD estimated that growth across its economies slowed to 2.9% in the first quarter of 2026, with weaker-than-expected performance recorded in several large markets including Egypt, Kazakhstan, Romania, Turkey and Ukraine.

Chief economist Beata Javorcik said the latest shock has hit already fragile economies. “The conflict in the Middle East has delivered a new shock to regions already navigating weakness in manufacturing industries and fragile fiscal positions,” she said.

Inflation has also reaccelerated after easing late last year. The EBRD reported that average inflation across its regions rose to 6.4% between February and April 2026, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. Higher energy and food costs were identified as the primary drivers, while currency depreciation against the US dollar added further pressure in several economies.

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The bank warned that inflation could remain elevated for longer than previously expected, particularly in emerging markets where households spend a larger share of income on food and energy compared with advanced economies.

To cushion the impact, nearly two-thirds of EBRD economies have introduced measures such as fuel price caps, tax relief and targeted subsidies. However, the bank cautioned that these steps are placing additional strain on public finances at a time when borrowing costs are already rising.

Higher energy bills, tighter global financial conditions and elevated debt levels are compounding fiscal pressures across many member countries.

Looking ahead, the EBRD warned that a prolonged conflict could further disrupt supply chains, push energy prices higher and weaken investment flows. Such developments, it said, would weigh on already subdued growth prospects across its regions.

For now, policymakers face a difficult balance between supporting households and maintaining fiscal stability, as external shocks continue to reshape the economic outlook.

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Micron Posts Record Results as AI Memory Chip Demand Fuels Growth

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US semiconductor manufacturer Micron Technology reported quarterly revenue and profit that exceeded market expectations, driven by strong demand for advanced memory chips used in artificial intelligence systems.

The Idaho-based company announced third-quarter revenue of $41.4 billion, a sharp increase from $9.3 billion recorded during the same period a year earlier. The result surpassed analysts’ forecasts of approximately $35.7 billion, highlighting the continued expansion of AI-related infrastructure spending.

Net income also surged, reaching $28.24 billion, compared with less than $2 billion in the corresponding quarter last year. Adjusted earnings came in at $25.11 per share, well above Wall Street estimates of $20.49 per share.

Investors responded positively to the earnings report. Micron shares rose more than 15 percent in after-hours trading, pushing the company’s market value to around $1.16 trillion. The stock has gained roughly 700 percent over the past year as demand for AI hardware has transformed the semiconductor industry.

Micron is one of a limited number of companies capable of producing high-bandwidth memory chips at scale. These chips play a crucial role in AI systems, working alongside processors manufactured by companies such as NVIDIA. High-bandwidth memory is widely used in data centres being built by major technology firms including Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta.

The company said its entire planned production of advanced memory chips for 2026 has already been sold under fixed-price agreements, reflecting strong customer demand and limited industry supply.

Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra said the results demonstrate the growing importance of memory technology in the AI era. Micron also pointed to a number of long-term customer agreements that it believes will provide greater stability to earnings in a sector traditionally known for sharp cycles of boom and decline.

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One of the most notable aspects of the report was profitability. Micron reported a gross margin of about 85 percent, a level that rivals or exceeds margins reported by some of the world’s largest technology companies. Industry analysts have attributed the strong margins to tight supply conditions and growing demand for specialised memory products.

Looking ahead, Micron expects revenue of approximately $50 billion in the current quarter and adjusted earnings of around $31 per share. To support future growth, the company plans to increase capital spending to about $27 billion this fiscal year, with additional investment expected in 2027.

The results are being viewed as another sign that spending on AI infrastructure remains strong, although industry observers continue to watch closely for signs that future supply growth could eventually ease the current market tightness.

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One in Three EU Residents Live in Spare-Room Homes as Europe’s Housing Mismatch Widens

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Europe is facing a housing contradiction: widespread shortages of affordable homes on one hand, and a large share of underused living space on the other. New Eurostat data shows that one in three people in the European Union live in homes considered under-occupied, meaning they have more rooms than they need.

Under-occupation typically describes properties that exceed household requirements, often because older residents remain in larger family homes after children have moved out. Across the EU, 33.4% of people fall into this category, though national differences are striking.

Cyprus records the highest rate at 69.4%, followed by Ireland at 66% and Malta at 63.2%. The Netherlands (58.5%), Belgium (57%), Spain (54.3%), Luxembourg (52.2%) and Norway (51%) also show high levels. In contrast, Romania sits at just 8.1%, with Serbia, Turkey, Latvia, Greece and Croatia also reporting relatively low figures below 15%.

The pattern is not neatly divided along regional lines. Southern Europe shows sharp contrasts, with Spain among the highest while Italy and Greece sit much lower. Eastern and south-eastern Europe generally report lower levels of under-occupation, while parts of northern and western Europe trend higher.

Housing experts say the imbalance reflects deeper structural issues rather than simple shortages. The European Federation of National Organisations Working with the Homeless (FEANTSA) argues that policy responses focused on penalising under-occupation risk missing the real problem: the lack of affordable smaller homes.

A spokesperson for the organisation said measures like the UK’s “bedroom tax” did not work effectively because households often had no viable alternatives, leaving them financially penalised without improving housing supply. FEANTSA has instead called for greater investment in social housing and efforts to bring vacant properties back into use.

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Ownership patterns also play a key role. Eurostat data shows that 40.5% of homeowners live in under-occupied homes, compared with 14.2% of tenants. Researchers say this gap reflects long-term settlement patterns, with owners more likely to remain in larger homes over time.

Sebastian Kohl, a professor at Berlin’s Free University, notes that homeownership is one of the strongest predictors of under-occupation, alongside demographic ageing and household size. Smaller households, particularly single-person and two-person homes, account for most under-occupied dwellings.

Income is another factor, with higher earners more likely to live in larger homes with spare rooms. Urban areas account for 41% of under-occupied housing, while rural regions and towns make up the remainder in roughly equal shares.

Researchers also point to inconsistencies in how countries define a “room,” which can affect comparisons. In some cases, kitchens are counted, adding further variation to the data.

Despite official classifications, perceptions differ. Studies suggest only two in five people in under-occupied homes actually believe their housing is too large, highlighting a gap between statistical definitions and lived experience.

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EU Plans 2027 Banking Overhaul to Unify Markets and Cut Foreign Dependence

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The European Commission is preparing a major overhaul of the European Union’s banking framework, with reforms expected in early 2027 aimed at deepening financial integration across member states, improving access to credit, and reducing reliance on non-EU lenders.

According to a draft report seen by Euronews, the European Commission intends to introduce new legislation designed to dismantle long-standing barriers between national banking systems. The plan is part of a broader effort to create a more unified financial sector capable of supporting Europe’s economic and strategic priorities.

The report, which is set to be formally presented on 15 July, highlights concerns that the EU’s banking landscape remains fragmented and unnecessarily complex. It warns that these inefficiencies are contributing to higher borrowing costs for households and businesses across the bloc.

Despite decades of efforts to integrate financial markets, cross-border banking activity within the EU remains significantly less developed than in the United States. The Commission argues that this lack of integration limits competition and reduces the efficiency of capital allocation.

The proposed reforms come at a time when Europe faces substantial investment demands. A recent study by consultancy Oliver Wyman, commissioned by the European Banking Federation, estimates that the EU requires an additional €1.4 trillion in annual investment to meet its economic needs. This figure exceeds previous projections, including those outlined in Mario Draghi’s 2024 competitiveness review.

Officials argue that a more efficient banking sector would be better positioned to finance key areas such as defence, digital transformation, and the green transition. The draft report also stresses the importance of strengthening Europe’s financial autonomy by reducing dependence on banks based outside the EU.

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Three main objectives underpin the planned reforms: completing a single market for banking services, aligning EU regulations with international standards, and simplifying what the Commission describes as overly complex regulatory requirements that burden the sector.

Among the measures under consideration are steps to facilitate cross-border banking operations, including smoother movement of capital and liquidity between member states and improved frameworks for managing potential bank failures.

The Commission also emphasises that banking reforms must proceed alongside deeper integration of Europe’s capital markets. Work on capital markets union initiatives is already underway in Brussels, with policymakers aiming to reach agreement on key proposals by the end of the year.

Officials say the combined reforms are intended to create a more resilient, competitive financial system capable of supporting long-term growth while strengthening the EU’s economic sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

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