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China Sets 2025 Growth Target at 5% Amid Rising Trade Tensions

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China has set its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at 5% for 2025, maintaining the same goal as last year despite escalating trade tensions with the United States and global economic uncertainties. The announcement came during the annual Two Sessions government meeting, where Chinese leaders also unveiled a series of stimulus measures aimed at bolstering the economy.

Increased Deficit and Lower Inflation Target

As part of its Government Work Report, Beijing has raised its budget deficit to 4% of GDP, marking the highest level in three decades. This move aligns with its “highly proactive” fiscal policy stance, which was initially outlined in January.

Additionally, the government has lowered its inflation target to 2% from 3% in 2024, the lowest in more than two decades, reflecting concerns over sluggish domestic demand and a slowing economy.

The Two Sessions—the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)—are expected to conclude on March 11, with more economic policies set to be discussed.

Beijing Announces New Stimulus Measures

To support economic growth, China has unveiled a range of stimulus measures, including:

  • 4.4 trillion yuan (€570 billion) in special-purpose bonds for infrastructure projects.
  • 1.3 trillion yuan (€168 billion) in ultra-long special Treasury bonds to finance long-term projects.
  • 500 billion yuan (€65 billion) in special sovereign bonds to strengthen the country’s largest commercial banks.

The government has also announced policies to boost domestic consumption, support the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, and expand renewable energy projects. Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to stimulate domestic demand, particularly as trade risks grow due to tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

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Additionally, China plans to expand cross-border e-commerce to push for more exports, with new supporting policies set to be introduced.

US-China Trade War Escalates

The latest round of stimulus measures comes amid a widening trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Last month, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which was doubled to 20% on Tuesday.

In retaliation, China has announced a 15% tariff on U.S. agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, alongside a 10% tariff on soy, pork, beef, fruits, and vegetables. These duties will take effect on March 10.

This follows Beijing’s first round of retaliatory tariffs in February, which targeted U.S. liquefied natural gas, crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles.

The escalating trade war, combined with tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada, has led to sharp declines in global stock markets. Trump acknowledged the economic impact of his tariff strategy but downplayed concerns, stating in a Congressional address that the U.S. is “okay with that.”

Chinese Markets Rebound as Copper Prices Surge

Despite the trade tensions, Chinese markets showed resilience on Wednesday. The Hang Seng Index rebounded nearly 2%, snapping a four-day losing streak, while all three mainland stock benchmarks posted gains.

In the commodities market, copper futures surged 1.6%, driven by Beijing’s additional stimulus measures aimed at infrastructure and AI projects. As the world’s largest copper importer, China’s increased demand has lifted prices, benefiting global manufacturers and electric vehicle producers.

However, crude oil prices remained near yearly lows, weighed down by OPEC+’s recent decision to increase supply.

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Looking Ahead

With trade tensions rising and economic headwinds persisting, China’s leadership faces mounting pressure to stabilize growth and shield its economy from external risks. The next phase of economic policies will likely focus on strengthening domestic industries, securing alternative trade partnerships, and ensuring financial stability amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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UniCredit’s €35 Billion Bid for Commerzbank Faces German Rejection as Takeover Battle Intensifies

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UniCredit’s hostile €35 billion takeover offer for Germany’s Commerzbank is set to close on Tuesday night, bringing to a head a politically charged banking battle that has drawn resistance from Berlin and renewed debate over consolidation in Europe’s financial sector.

The Milan-based lender launched its bid in early May in an effort to take control of Commerzbank and strengthen its position as a pan-European banking powerhouse. The offer, which formally expires at 11:59 p.m. local time unless extended, has already cleared the 30 percent acceptance threshold UniCredit had set as a key milestone.

However, the proposal has been widely criticised as undervaluing the German lender, and has faced firm opposition from both Commerzbank’s leadership and the German government. Berlin has repeatedly voiced concerns over the bid, warning that Commerzbank plays a critical role in financing Germany’s small and medium-sized enterprises as well as supporting employment in Frankfurt’s financial sector.

Germany’s Financial Market Stabilisation Fund rejected the offer outright on Tuesday, stating that it supports Commerzbank’s independence strategy and opposes what it described as UniCredit’s aggressive approach. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had earlier warned that the bid risks undermining trust in one of Germany’s key private banks.

In response, Commerzbank chief executive Bettina Orlopp has introduced a long-term strategy aimed at improving profitability by 2030, including cost-cutting measures and restructuring efforts designed to make the bank more efficient and attractive to investors.

UniCredit, meanwhile, has reported growing support for its bid, stating that acceptance levels stood at 11.9 percent as of Monday, in addition to its existing 26.7 percent stake. The bank has also disclosed exposure through derivatives linked to an additional share of Commerzbank’s capital.

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The Italian lender argues that surpassing the 30 percent threshold should allow it greater influence over governance, including the appointment of supervisory board representatives. That position has been firmly rejected by Commerzbank, which points to existing agreements with the German state that protect its role in board nominations.

Tensions between the two institutions have also escalated over allegations of misleading disclosures. Commerzbank has asked Germany’s financial regulator, BaFin, to investigate UniCredit’s reporting practices, while prosecutors in Frankfurt have opened a preliminary inquiry into possible market manipulation linked to trading activity during the offer period.

UniCredit has rejected all accusations, insisting its disclosures comply fully with regulatory requirements and accusing Commerzbank management of misrepresenting the facts to shape public perception.

Beyond pricing and governance disputes, the takeover attempt highlights broader concerns about consolidation in European banking and the future structure of national financial institutions. With the offer deadline approaching, the outcome will determine whether UniCredit can advance its ambition of reshaping its German operations through a deeper integration with Commerzbank or whether resistance from Berlin succeeds in halting the bid.

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SpaceX Strikes $60 Billion Deal to Acquire AI Coding Startup Cursor in Major Expansion into Enterprise AI

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SpaceX has agreed to acquire Anysphere, the company behind the AI-powered coding tool Cursor, in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion, marking one of the company’s most significant moves beyond its core aerospace business.

The agreement, announced on Tuesday, signals a deeper push by Elon Musk’s firm into the rapidly expanding enterprise artificial intelligence sector, where companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic have already established strong commercial positions. Anysphere, based in San Francisco, develops software that uses AI to automate large parts of the programming process, and its Cursor tool has become widely adopted among developers.

Under the terms of the deal, a SpaceX subsidiary, X67 Inc., will merge with Anysphere, making Cursor a wholly owned subsidiary of the aerospace company. The transaction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of the year, pending regulatory approval.

The acquisition comes just days after SpaceX completed a high-profile initial public offering that valued the company at record levels. Following the announcement, SpaceX shares continued to climb in premarket trading, rising more than 4 percent and trading significantly above their IPO price.

If the momentum holds, the company’s valuation could challenge some of the largest technology firms globally, reflecting strong investor interest in Musk’s expanding technology portfolio.

SpaceX had previously secured an option in April to either acquire Cursor outright for $60 billion or enter a smaller partnership worth $10 billion focused on providing computing resources. The decision to proceed with a full acquisition highlights the company’s confidence in the long-term value of AI-driven software development tools.

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Founded in 2022, Anysphere has experienced rapid growth. The company reported approximately $2.6 billion in annualised business-to-business revenue earlier this year, driven by strong demand for its AI-assisted coding platform. It has also attracted more than $3 billion in funding from major investors, including Nvidia and OpenAI.

The deal further expands Musk’s presence in artificial intelligence following the earlier merger between SpaceX and his AI venture xAI. Industry observers say the acquisition could strengthen xAI’s position in AI-assisted coding, an area where it has lagged behind competitors, while also giving Anysphere access to significantly greater computing power and infrastructure.

Analysts view the move as part of a broader strategy to integrate AI capabilities across Musk’s technology ecosystem, spanning aerospace, software, and data-driven services. The transaction also underscores intensifying competition in the AI sector, where major technology companies are racing to secure tools that enhance software development and enterprise productivity.

Regulatory approval remains pending, but the acquisition is already being seen as a pivotal step in SpaceX’s evolution from an aerospace leader into a broader artificial intelligence and technology powerhouse.

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Oil Markets Stabilise After Iran Deal, but Experts Warn Energy Supply Recovery Will Take Months

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Despite the announcement of a deal to end the Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, energy experts caution that global oil and gas markets will not return to normal quickly, with supply disruptions expected to persist for months.

The agreement, reached on Sunday, has eased immediate market fears and triggered a fall in crude prices at the start of the week. Brent crude, the international benchmark, slipped by $3.45 to $83.89 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell $4.03 to $80.85 per barrel. Even with the decline, prices remain significantly higher than the pre-war level of around $70 per barrel.

Analysts say the underlying disruption to global supply chains cannot be resolved in the short term. Shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carry around one-fifth of the world’s oil and refined fuel supplies, were severely disrupted during the conflict, leaving tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months.

Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy, said the recovery process will be gradual and dependent on logistical and financial conditions. He noted that insurance coverage, crew availability and safety assurances will all need to be restored before shipping activity can return to normal levels.

“There needs to be confidence that there is a safe window to bring vessels in, load them and move them out again,” Evans said, adding that restarting operations will require coordination across multiple sectors.

Even once shipments resume, the physical movement of oil remains slow. Tankers can take weeks or even months to reach refineries across global markets, meaning the impact of renewed flows will not be immediate.

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Complicating the recovery further, several Middle Eastern producers were forced to halt or reduce output during the conflict due to storage constraints, a process known as shut-ins. Restarting those facilities is expected to take time, particularly in countries with more complex extraction conditions.

Alan Gelder, senior vice president at energy analytics firm Wood Mackenzie, said Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could recover more quickly due to alternative export routes. However, he warned that Iraq and other heavily affected producers may require up to a year to fully restore output.

Investment in new energy infrastructure has also been delayed by the conflict, further slowing long-term recovery. Analysts say companies are unlikely to restart major capital spending until there is confidence that stability in the Strait of Hormuz will last beyond a short-term ceasefire.

As Daniel Sternoff of Columbia University noted, uncertainty remains over how quickly normal shipping conditions can be restored, leaving the global energy market in a cautious transition phase despite diplomatic progress.

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