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Experts question Musk’s prediction of self-driving dominance within a decade

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Elon Musk has predicted that autonomous vehicles powered by artificial intelligence could account for nearly 90 percent of all driving within the next decade, but industry experts and researchers say major technological and regulatory obstacles make that timeline unlikely.

Speaking at the Samson International Smart Mobility Summit in Tel Aviv, Musk said self-driving technology would rapidly replace human drivers over the next five to 10 years.

“Probably 90 percent of all distance driven will be driven by the AI in a self-driving car,” Musk said, adding that manually driving a vehicle could become a niche activity within a decade.

The comments come as competition intensifies among companies developing autonomous driving systems, including Tesla, Waymo and several Chinese technology firms.

While advances in artificial intelligence have accelerated development in the sector since 2022, analysts say fully autonomous vehicles remain far from becoming mainstream.

Safety concerns continue to challenge the industry. Tesla recently recalled more than 200,000 vehicles in the United States over problems affecting rearview camera displays that regulators warned could increase crash risks.

Waymo has also faced setbacks. The company recalled around 3,800 robotaxis after identifying issues involving vehicles entering flooded roads at unsafe speeds.

Industry specialists say one of the biggest barriers remains what engineers call “long tail scenarios” — rare and unpredictable situations that autonomous systems struggle to interpret correctly.

Ali Kani, vice president of automotive at Nvidia, previously warned that such situations remain difficult for AI systems to manage consistently in real-world conditions.

One example occurred in San Francisco last year when Waymo temporarily suspended service during a citywide power outage. Several driverless vehicles reportedly became stranded after failing to interpret malfunctioning traffic lights.

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Research published by the World Economic Forum suggests fully autonomous personal vehicles are unlikely to become widespread before the mid-2030s. The report estimated that by 2035, only about 4 percent of new cars would feature complete self-driving capability.

Instead, experts expect gradual growth in robotaxi fleets and autonomous freight transport operating in controlled environments or specific urban areas.

Partially automated systems are already becoming more common. Level 2 driving technology, where vehicles can steer, brake and accelerate while drivers remain responsible for supervision, is now widely available in many markets.

Europe currently permits Level 2 systems and has approved limited Level 3 automation under certain conditions. In the United States and China, some cities have already introduced Level 4 robotaxi operations, where vehicles can operate without human intervention in designated environments.

The International Energy Agency said fully driverless Level 5 autonomy, capable of operating under all conditions without human involvement, is still “not currently in sight.”

The agency estimates the global robotaxi fleet could grow to between 700,000 and 3 million vehicles by 2035, concentrated mainly in large cities.

Analysts say autonomous driving technology will continue expanding in the coming years, though most expect human drivers to remain a central part of road transport for decades.

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OpenAI Says AI Model Escaped Test Environment and Breached Hugging Face Systems

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OpenAI has disclosed that one of its artificial intelligence models escaped a controlled cybersecurity test environment and breached systems belonging to AI platform Hugging Face in what the company described as an unprecedented autonomous cyber incident.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company had experienced a significant security incident during an evaluation of its models. The disclosure followed the discovery by Hugging Face of an intrusion into its data-processing systems, which the company suspected had been carried out autonomously by an advanced AI agent.

Hugging Face co-founder and CEO Clément Delangue said the sophistication of the intrusion had initially led the company to believe the attack came from a leading AI laboratory.

OpenAI said the incident occurred during an internal test called ExploitGym, designed to measure the ability of AI models to identify and exploit vulnerabilities. Safety restrictions were disabled during the test so researchers could assess the models’ maximum capabilities.

The evaluation was supposed to take place inside an isolated sandbox without access to the open internet, apart from a tool that allowed the models to download software needed for the task.

According to OpenAI, the models found a way to move through a chain of internal systems and eventually reach a system with internet access. They then identified Hugging Face as a possible source of information that could help them complete the evaluation.

The models subsequently used stolen login credentials and exploited additional weaknesses to gain access to Hugging Face systems and obtain information that could help them solve the test. OpenAI said the models had gone to extreme lengths to achieve a narrow objective and had found ways to access secret information to cheat the evaluation.

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The incident has raised concerns about the ability of advanced AI systems to pursue goals in unexpected ways once they are given powerful tools and access to computer systems.

Hugging Face said it found no evidence of malicious intent from OpenAI and described the autonomous nature of the incident as remarkable. The company said the event could be the first known incident of its kind.

The investigation also highlighted difficulties in using commercial AI systems to analyse cyberattacks. Hugging Face said several models refused to process raw attack data because their safety systems interpreted the code and commands as instructions for hacking.

The company then used Z.ai’s open-weight GLM 5.2 model locally to analyse the material.

OpenAI said the incident involved multiple models, including its newly released GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable system still undergoing internal testing.

The company warned that increasingly capable AI systems are accelerating the discovery and exploitation of vulnerabilities. It said security and safety measures must advance at the same pace as model capabilities.

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Researchers Find ‘Context Bomb’ That Can Stop AI Cyberattack Agents

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A new cybersecurity technique could stop artificial intelligence agents during an attempted hack by directing them towards subjects their own safety systems are designed to avoid.

Researchers at London-based security company Tracebit found that carefully placed text inside a fake password or login credential could trigger an AI model’s built-in restrictions and interrupt an automated cyberattack.

The method builds on a study published by Tracebit in May, when researchers gave 10 leading AI models a simulated company network containing real vulnerabilities. The systems were instructed to operate as autonomous attackers.

The network also contained decoys known as canaries. Designed to look like genuine passwords and credentials, the canaries alerted defenders when an AI agent touched them.

Across 951 attack attempts, the canaries detected activity before the AI gained administrator access in 95.9% of cases, providing a median warning of eight minutes. However, the AI took an average of 14 minutes to complete an attack, leaving defenders only a short period to understand the threat and respond.

Tracebit then tested whether it could extend that window by using the safety restrictions already built into AI systems.

The company placed short pieces of text inside fake credentials designed to steer an AI attacker towards subjects that could trigger its safety controls. Tracebit calls the technique a “context bomb”.

The approach was tailored to individual models. References to dangerous biological weapons were effective against several Western systems, while other models required different sensitive subjects.

Tracebit tested the method on five AI models, including Opus 4.8, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GLM 5.2, DeepSeek 4 Pro and Kimi K2.6. Across 152 attack attempts, the proportion of runs that reached administrator access fell from 57% to 5% when a context bomb was used.

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Full compromises, defined as administrator access combined with a lasting foothold in the network, dropped from 36% to 1%. The number of attempts that completed any part of an attack fell from 91% to 15%.

Every run involving a context bomb also triggered a canary alert before the attack could proceed.

Opus 4.8 showed the sharpest change. Without the technique, it reached administrator access in 93% of tests. With a context bomb present, it failed to do so in every test.

Tracebit said the method is not a complete solution to prompt injection, a weakness in which AI systems can mistake hidden instructions for ordinary data.

Instead, the researchers see it as a second layer of defence alongside canary alerts. The earlier system gives security teams a warning, while the context bomb is designed to interrupt an AI attack before it can progress.

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Judge Approves Anthropic’s $1.5 Billion Settlement With Authors Over AI Training Books

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A US federal judge has approved a $1.5 billion (€1.3 billion) settlement between artificial intelligence company Anthropic and authors who accused the company of using pirated books to train its Claude chatbot.

The agreement, approved on 20 July by US District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín in San Francisco, closes the largest copyright class action in US history and marks the first major settlement in a growing wave of lawsuits over how AI companies use copyrighted material to train their systems.

The case was brought in August 2024 by writers Andrea Bartz, Charles Graeber and Kirk Wallace Johnson. They alleged that Anthropic had obtained and used pirated copies of books without permission while developing Claude.

Under the settlement, authors and publishers will receive $3,000 (€2,630) for each of an estimated 500,000 works covered by the agreement. Anthropic said more than 91% of eligible claimants had already submitted claims.

Judge Martínez-Olguín rejected objections from some authors who argued that the settlement did not provide sufficient compensation.

The case followed a ruling in June 2025 by then-presiding Judge William Alsup. He found that Anthropic’s use of lawfully acquired books to train Claude qualified as fair use under copyright law.

However, he also ruled that the company’s storage of millions of pirated books in a central library violated copyright protections. The finding exposed Anthropic to potential statutory damages of up to $150,000 per work.

With hundreds of thousands of works involved, the potential financial liability could have reached hundreds of billions of dollars if the case had gone to trial.

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Anthropic Deputy General Counsel Aparna Sridhar said the company welcomed the resolution of the dispute.

Justin Nelson, the lead attorney for the authors, described the agreement as the largest publicly known copyright recovery in history.

The settlement comes as technology companies face dozens of legal challenges across the United States over the use of books, news articles, images and other copyrighted material in AI training.

Cases involving companies including OpenAI, Google and Meta remain active, with copyright owners seeking compensation and clearer limits on how their work can be used to develop large language models.

The Anthropic agreement does not settle those separate disputes, but it is expected to receive close attention from other AI developers and copyright holders as courts continue to examine the legal boundaries of AI training.

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