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UK Inflation Surges to 3%, Delaying Hopes for Interest Rate Cuts

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The UK’s inflation rate jumped to 3% in January, reaching a 10-month high and exceeding expectations, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The latest figures, up from 2.5% in December, cast doubt on the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), as inflation remains well above the central bank’s 2% target.

Unexpected Spike Raises Concerns

Economists had forecast a rise to 2.8%, but the higher-than-expected jump caught analysts by surprise. The increase was largely driven by rising airfares, food prices, and private school fees, following the Labour government’s tax hike on private schools.

The unexpected surge is likely to trouble BoE policymakers, who are already grappling with sluggish economic growth. Earlier this month, the central bank cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%, marking its third reduction in six months. The move came as the BoE halved its 2025 growth forecast to just 0.75%, reflecting a weak economic outlook.

With inflation still above target and growth remaining sluggish, concerns are mounting over the government’s ability to revive the economy. The Labour Party, which won the July general election, has struggled to boost consumer confidence, and its popularity has dipped amid disappointing economic indicators.

Rate Cuts Likely to Be Delayed

Economists now expect inflation to climb further in the coming months, driven by rising domestic energy bills. However, many anticipate a gradual decline in the second half of the year, which could give the BoE room for additional rate cuts—though less aggressively than previously expected.

“Another rate cut in March looks pretty unlikely, with the Bank continuing with its gradual pace of easing for now,” said Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at abrdn. “Any acceleration in rate cuts will depend on inflation falling closer to 2%.”

Financial analysts have echoed similar concerns, noting that while lower mortgage rates and falling food costs provide short-term relief, the broader economic picture remains uncertain.

“The sharp uptick in inflation demonstrates the tightrope the Bank is walking,” said Nick Saunders, CEO of Webull UK. “While some costs are easing, the 3% inflation rate is a real cause for concern.”

Market Reaction and Economic Impact

The unexpected inflation jump has already impacted currency markets. The British pound initially surged following the data release but quickly retreated, reflecting uncertainty over the BoE’s next moves.

“This was an unexpectedly large jump,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. “The ONS data shows that rising transport, food, and beverage costs were key contributors. Today’s hotter-than-expected numbers will make it harder for the Bank of England to cut rates further.”

With inflation trending higher than forecast, some analysts warn that further price increases could be on the horizon, especially with potential trade disruptions linked to U.S. tariff policies.

“Inflation is now 1% above target and heading in the wrong direction,” said Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell. “The Bank of England expects inflation to hit 3.7% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, rising National Insurance and the National Living Wage from April could further fuel inflationary pressures.”

While the BoE maintains that inflation will eventually return to 2%, the latest figures suggest the path to stability may take longer than expected. For now, businesses and consumers should brace for continued economic uncertainty, as interest rate cuts remain on hold—at least in the short term.

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CXMT Shares Soar 472% in China’s Biggest IPO in Years

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Shares of China’s largest memory chipmaker, CXMT, surged 472 per cent in their Shanghai debut on Monday, marking one of the biggest initial public offerings on mainland China in recent years and highlighting the growing importance of the semiconductor industry.

The stock was trading 462 per cent higher by early afternoon in Asia, giving CXMT a market capitalisation of about 3.3 trillion yuan, or approximately €415 billion. The company briefly became the most valuable company listed on a mainland Chinese exchange, although its valuation remained below those of South Korean and US memory chip giants Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology.

CXMT raised at least $8.6 billion, approximately €7.3 billion, through the offering. Its shares were priced at 8.66 yuan, or about €1.10, before the listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR Market, which is designed for technology companies.

The offering was mainland China’s second-largest IPO after Agricultural Bank of China’s dual listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong in 2010, which raised $22.1 billion, approximately €18.8 billion.

Founded in 2016 in Hefei, CXMT is one of the world’s largest producers of DRAM memory chips. These semiconductors are used in a wide range of products, including artificial intelligence servers, cars, smartphones and personal computers.

The company has benefited from the rapid expansion of AI while also gaining importance as Beijing seeks to reduce China’s dependence on foreign technology. US-led export restrictions have limited China’s access to advanced chipmaking equipment and high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, which is widely used in AI systems.

CXMT’s revenue reached 50.8 billion yuan, approximately €6.4 billion, in the first three months of 2026, rising more than 700 per cent from a year earlier as demand for memory chips surged.

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The global expansion of AI has contributed to a shortage of memory chips and pushed up prices for some computers and smartphones. Analysts are watching whether CXMT can help ease supply pressures while expanding its international market share.

Counterpoint Research ranked CXMT as the world’s fourth-largest DRAM producer by shipments in 2025, with about 8 per cent of the global market. Samsung held 36 per cent, SK Hynix 29 per cent and Micron about 24 per cent. CXMT’s share rose to around 9 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 and is forecast to reach about 11 per cent by 2028.

The company faces major challenges in expanding production because restrictions limit access to some of the world’s most advanced chipmaking tools. CXMT has increasingly relied on domestic equipment suppliers.

US lawmakers have also called for restrictions on American companies purchasing CXMT chips. The company has been designated by the Pentagon as having links to the Chinese military, a classification Beijing has rejected in many cases.

The IPO came shortly after SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq listing, underlining the intense competition among global memory chipmakers as AI demand continues to reshape the semiconductor industry.

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Oil Prices Fall as US-Iran Pause Military Action and Shipping Risks Ease

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Oil prices fell in early trading on Monday, extending a decline from the two-month high reached last week as the United States and Iran refrained from launching further military strikes in the Persian Gulf.

Brent crude for September delivery fell 4.66 per cent to $92.27 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 5.02 per cent to $84.83.

Brent, the international benchmark, briefly reached $102 a barrel last week. That was about $30 higher than the most actively traded contract had been at the beginning of the month and marked the highest level since May.

Oil prices had risen sharply this month as fighting in the Middle East intensified and markets grew concerned that a return to full-scale war could further disrupt global crude supplies.

The safety of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained a major concern for energy markets since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February. The narrow waterway off Iran’s coast carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies from the Persian Gulf to international markets.

The conflict has severely reduced shipping activity through the strait, forcing producers and exporters to seek alternative routes. Those routes have also come under pressure, with attacks last week targeting Saudi oil tankers travelling through the Red Sea.

Any prolonged reduction in available crude supplies could push prices higher and raise fuel costs for consumers and businesses.

The latest decline in oil prices comes as inflation had begun to ease more quickly than many economists expected. However, the recent surge in energy prices has renewed concerns about the outlook for consumer prices.

See also  France Reports Sharp Drop in Inflation While Other EU Economies See Increases

Traders are now pricing in a 36 per cent chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its main interest rate at an upcoming meeting, according to CME Group data.

Higher interest rates can help reduce inflation by limiting borrowing and spending, but they can also slow economic activity by making loans more expensive for households and businesses.

Although oil prices have surrendered part of their substantial July gains, uncertainty remains high. Markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, the safety of key shipping routes and the potential impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions on global crude supplies.

Any renewed military action or further attacks on alternative shipping routes could quickly push prices higher again, while a sustained diplomatic pause could allow supply concerns to ease.

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Italy Fuel Prices Rise Above €2.60 a Litre as Government Considers Relief Measures

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Fuel prices in Italy have returned to the centre of political and economic debate, with petrol and diesel costs rising above €2.60 a litre in parts of Milan and on several motorways.

The latest increases have raised concerns among households, businesses and consumer groups, while the government prepares measures aimed at limiting the impact of higher fuel costs.

A petrol station in central Milan recorded a price of €2.60 a litre on Saturday. Prices above €2.70 for diesel and €2.50 for petrol were also reported on several major motorways, including the A21 Turin-Piacenza, A4 Venice-Trieste and A22 Brenner-Modena routes. Some stations on the Milan-Brescia and Messina-Palermo routes also reported sharp increases.

In Rome, petrol prices reached €2.30 a litre at several filling stations.

The latest increase follows the end of a government excise-duty cut introduced during the energy crisis linked to the war between the US and Iran. The measure expired on July 3.

According to the latest data from the Fuel Price Observatory, the average self-service price on Italy’s national road network stood at €1.981 a litre for petrol and €2.184 for diesel. On motorways, the averages were €2.071 for petrol and €2.255 for diesel.

Consumer group Codacons warned that Italians could spend €10.8 billion on fuel during July, almost €2 billion more than in the same period last year.

The organisation estimated that households could spend an additional €841 million on petrol and diesel this month compared with July 2025, assuming fuel consumption remains unchanged.

The research office of Cgia di Mestre estimated that households and businesses could face almost €29 billion in additional costs for electricity, gas and fuels during 2026. Petrol and diesel were expected to account for €13.6 billion of that increase, up 20.4% from last year.

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The government is considering a variable excise-duty system that could allow tax reductions when fuel prices rise and VAT revenues increase.

Business and Made in Italy Minister Adolfo Urso said the government was waiting for Economy Ministry calculations on additional VAT revenue before determining the scale of any possible cut.

Urso defended the government’s efforts to monitor fuel prices and tackle speculation, saying Italy’s system had helped limit increases compared with other countries.

Opposition parties have called for faster and more substantial action. Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein urged Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to accept the variable excise-duty proposal.

Five Star Movement leader Giuseppe Conte called for broader measures to protect families and businesses from rising energy costs.

With fuel prices continuing to put pressure on household budgets and company finances, the government is now under growing pressure to act before the increase feeds into wider inflation and transport costs.

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