Global oil markets were thrown into fresh turmoil this week after the United Arab Emirates formally announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, ending decades of membership and adding new uncertainty to an already fragile energy landscape.
The UAE’s departure, which takes effect on Friday, comes at a time when oil markets are already under intense strain from the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Initial market reaction was swift. Oil prices fell between 2% and 3% as traders anticipated that the UAE, freed from OPEC production quotas, could boost output and add more crude to global supplies. The prospect of increased production from one of the world’s largest exporters briefly eased fears of tight supply.
However, those losses were quickly reversed as geopolitical concerns returned to the forefront. By Wednesday, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude had climbed above $105 a barrel, while Brent crude rose past $112, both roughly 4% above their post-announcement lows.
The UAE’s decision follows years of friction with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members over production limits. Abu Dhabi has invested heavily in expanding its oil capacity through the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, aiming to raise output to five million barrels per day. Under OPEC quotas, much of that new capacity remained unused.
Analysts say the move reflects Abu Dhabi’s determination to prioritise national interests over collective production discipline.
The exit also represents a major challenge for OPEC, removing its third-largest producer and raising questions about the group’s long-term cohesion. Without the UAE, OPEC’s ability to coordinate supply and influence prices may become more complicated, especially during periods of geopolitical instability.
Compounding the uncertainty is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, which handles a substantial share of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, remains blocked amid tensions between Iran and the United States.
Iran has proposed reopening the strait as part of a broader agreement that would require the lifting of the US naval blockade and an end to hostilities. President Donald Trump has described Tehran’s latest offer as improved but has not accepted the terms, insisting on a broader settlement over Iran’s nuclear programme before sanctions are eased.
Energy analysts warn that the prolonged disruption in the Gulf has already removed a significant portion of global oil supply from the market, creating one of the most serious energy shocks in decades.
Despite the uncertainty, major international oil companies have benefited from higher crude prices. Firms such as BP, Shell, Chevron and ExxonMobil are expected to see stronger cash flows as elevated prices boost revenues.
For now, traders are balancing the possibility of increased UAE production against the far greater risk posed by continued instability in the Middle East.