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Trump Says Strait of Hormuz Deal May Be Close as Shipping Risks Persist
US President Donald Trump has said an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within days, while warning Iran of severe consequences if negotiations fail, as tensions continue to disrupt one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes.
Speaking to reporters in California on Tuesday, Trump said negotiators had made significant progress and suggested a breakthrough could come as early as Wednesday.
“We had a very good day,” Trump said, adding that a deal could be reached “tomorrow or the next day.”
Earlier in the day, Trump adopted a tougher tone during an interview with Fox News, saying the strategic waterway would reopen soon or Iran would “get hit very hard.”
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is a critical shipping route for global oil and natural gas exports. Since the conflict began on 28 February, Iran has tightened its control over the passage and has sought to regulate vessel movements and introduce transit fees, powers it had not previously exercised.
The issue has become one of the main obstacles in diplomatic efforts to reduce regional tensions following an April ceasefire.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also expressed cautious optimism, telling CNBC there was a possibility of reaching an agreement by Wednesday or Thursday.
Despite the positive signals from Washington, Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied that direct negotiations with the United States were taking place.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that Washington was participating in discussions involving Oman and Iran aimed at increasing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to reports from Axios, citing US and regional officials, negotiators are working toward a temporary 60-day agreement that would allow ships to pass safely through the waterway. The proposed arrangement could reportedly be announced this week if talks are successful.
Qatar, which has played a mediating role in regional diplomacy, said efforts to reduce tensions remain active but indicated that no direct talks between the United States and Iran are currently scheduled. Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, discussed de-escalation efforts with Trump during a telephone conversation on Tuesday.
While diplomatic efforts continued, security concerns remained high across the region.
Britain’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman on Tuesday, leaving one crew member missing.
Elsewhere, an Indian cargo vessel sank in the Red Sea after coming under attack from unidentified assailants. All crew members were rescued safely.
The ongoing disruptions in Hormuz have increased the importance of alternative shipping routes through the Red Sea. However, those routes also face security challenges following attacks claimed by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement, which has declared a maritime blockade targeting vessels linked to Saudi Arabia.
The instability has forced many shipping companies to reassess routes and security measures, while energy markets continue to monitor developments closely. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategically significant waterways, carrying a substantial share of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports, making any disruption a major concern for international trade and energy supplies.
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Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen Within Seven Days as Oil Exports Come Under Pressure
Iran’s military said it retained full control of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strategic waterway could be fully reopened within seven days if Tehran’s conditions were met and hostile measures against the country were lifted.
The statements came as Iran faced growing economic pressure, with the rial falling to record lows, Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigning and the United States claiming that Tehran had not loaded any crude onto tankers during September.
Brigadier General Aziz Jafari, commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Joint Air Defence Headquarters, said all movements through the Strait remained under the control of the Iranian armed forces despite changes in US tactics.
“All movements (in Hormuz) are under the control of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic,” Jafari said.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that Iran had not loaded crude oil onto tankers during September, arguing that the Trump administration was targeting Tehran’s main source of revenue.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged in August that restrictions were disrupting oil exports, saying the country had previously been able to sell oil but was now unable to do so at the same level.
Paknejad’s resignation was officially attributed to family and personal matters. However, his departure came amid speculation about the impact of reduced oil exports on government finances. Before his resignation was announced, Paknejad said in a video carried by Iranian media that revenue from oil already sold would be collected and that the process would continue.
The acting oil minister has pledged to maximise production and maintain exports through new strategies.
Despite pressure on Iranian exports, oil shipments from other parts of the region remained high. Ship-tracking company Kpler estimated crude exports from the region excluding Iran at between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day during the final week of September, compared with a pre-war regional average of about 18 million barrels per day.
Iran’s currency has also come under severe pressure. The euro rose above 300,000 tomans on the informal market, while the US dollar reached 270,000 tomans, more than double its level of about 135,000 tomans at the beginning of the year. One toman is equal to 10 rials.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack each day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Araghchi told foreign ambassadors in Tehran that the conflict could not be resolved militarily and called for negotiations based on fairness. He warned that any renewed military confrontation would trigger a stronger Iranian response.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran had received US proposals through intermediaries but rejected what he described as one-sided demands.
He said the Strait would remain closed until Iran’s seven conditions, based on the Islamabad memorandum, were met.
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