Business
Japan’s Economy Posts Stronger-Than-Expected Growth Ahead of US Tariffs
Japan’s economy expanded faster than forecast in the second quarter of 2025, buoyed by a surge in pre-tariff exports and an influx of foreign tourists. Official data released by the Cabinet Office on Thursday showed the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualised rate of 1%, equivalent to a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter increase, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of expansion.
The growth outpaced analysts’ expectations, driven largely by a 2.0% rise in exports. Much of the strength came from a last-minute push by Japanese companies to ship goods before new US import duties took full effect. The United States has now implemented a 15% tariff on Japanese imports—lower than the 25% rate previously announced by President Donald Trump but still higher than earlier levels. A temporary 90-day pause on the higher duties allowed exporters to front-load shipments, but that grace period ended last week.
Tourism Surge Adds Momentum
Japan also saw a sharp rise in foreign visitor numbers during the quarter, giving an extra lift to economic activity. Tourism spending boosted demand across retail, hospitality, and transport sectors, although the influx has stirred discontent among some residents over crowding and cultural frictions.
Beyond exports and tourism, capital investment climbed 1.3% from a year earlier, reflecting increased business spending on equipment and infrastructure. However, household consumption—a key driver of domestic demand—remained sluggish, rising just 0.2% as rising prices continued to erode purchasing power.
Inflation Pressures Mount
While economic output strengthened, inflationary pressures persisted. Consumer prices have been climbing steadily, yet wage growth has slowed, intensifying concerns over household budgets. The combination of stronger-than-expected growth and ongoing inflation has fuelled speculation that the Bank of Japan could move to raise its benchmark interest rate from near zero for the first time in years, in an effort to rein in price increases.
Political and Trade Headwinds
The tariff dispute with Washington remains a looming risk. President Trump has framed the import taxes as part of a strategy to encourage manufacturers to shift production to the United States, a policy that has drawn criticism from Japanese officials and businesses alike.
The trade tensions have added to domestic political pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Calls for his resignation have grown louder following the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Komeito, failing to secure majorities in both houses of parliament in recent elections.
With higher US tariffs now in place and domestic political uncertainty mounting, economists warn that sustaining the momentum from the second quarter will be challenging. Nonetheless, the latest figures underscore Japan’s resilience in navigating a difficult global trade environment.
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