Business
September Slump Looms Over European Stocks as History Points to Losses
European equity markets are bracing for what has historically been one of their toughest months, with decades of data suggesting September typically brings negative returns for major indices and heavyweight stocks.
Long viewed with caution by global investors, September has earned a reputation as the weakest period for equities on both sides of the Atlantic. For Europe, the trend is no exception.
Over the past 30 years, the Euro Stoxx 50 — the region’s flagship blue-chip benchmark — has posted an average September loss of 1.56%, second only to August’s 1.59% decline. In 15 of those 30 years, the index ended the month in negative territory, giving investors little more than a coin-flip chance of avoiding losses.
The weakness persists even in more recent history. Since 2014, the Euro Stoxx 50 has averaged a 1% decline in September, with six out of the last ten instances closing lower. The broader Euro Stoxx 600 index has mirrored this trend, averaging a 0.96% drop since its 2002 launch. Across the Atlantic, Wall Street also experiences the same seasonal effect, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1% decline in September — its poorest month historically.
Index-by-Index Breakdown
Germany’s DAX has been particularly vulnerable, recording an average September decline of 1.62% and a winning rate of just 47%. France’s CAC 40 fares only slightly better, with an average drop of 1.49% but a slightly higher 53% win rate. Italy’s FTSE MIB, which has historically been flat in September, is on a streak of four consecutive negative performances.
Market analysts attribute the September slump to a mix of factors, including post-summer rebalancing by institutional investors, renewed macroeconomic uncertainty heading into year-end, and subdued trading volumes as markets recover from the holiday lull.
Individual Stocks Under Pressure
At the stock level, some of Europe’s biggest names have shown a clear pattern of September underperformance.
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Infineon (Germany): The semiconductor giant averages a 6.13% September loss, its weakest month on record, and has posted four straight declines. Its worst September came in 2001, with a staggering 52.34% plunge.
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Vivendi (France): The media firm has a 33% win rate and an average loss of 4.07% in September, including a dramatic 66% drop in 2021.
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Airbus (Netherlands/France): Shares have fallen in six consecutive Septembers, averaging a 4.01% decline. The worst setback was in 2001, when the stock slumped 37.04%.
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LVMH (France): Europe’s luxury powerhouse averages a 3.42% September loss, with its sharpest fall of 34.71% recorded in 2001.
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Société Générale (France): The bank averages a 3.11% decline, with its steepest September drop of 40.38% in 1998.
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Schneider Electric (France): The electrical equipment group has averaged a 2.16% loss in September, including a 34.43% slump in 2001.
As September trading begins, investors are weighing whether history will repeat itself. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the weight of decades of data suggests caution may be warranted.bus
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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