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France Faces Mounting Debt Risks Amid Political Uncertainty as Bayrou Prepares Confidence Vote

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France is bracing for renewed political and economic turbulence as Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote on September 8, a test that could topple the country’s third government in little more than a year. At stake is Bayrou’s €44 billion budget savings plan, a contentious effort to rein in debt and deficit levels that continue to climb.

The prime minister called the vote in a bid to secure parliamentary backing, but with the opposition controlling the National Assembly, prospects look grim. A defeat would plunge France into further political uncertainty and delay critical fiscal reforms until after the 2027 presidential election.

A Debt Problem That Won’t Wait

France’s fiscal challenges are mounting. The budget deficit is expected to reach 5.8% of GDP this year, while debt is forecast to hit 113% of GDP by the end of 2024, according to official data. The country’s debt now exceeds €3.3 trillion, a stark contrast with levels around 60% at the start of the 2000s.

Bayrou has argued that urgent belt-tightening is necessary to restore investor confidence and reduce the deficit to 4.6% of GDP. But spending cuts and new taxes remain deeply unpopular, and the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government last year over similar proposals highlights the political risks involved.

Economy Showing Signs of Resilience

Despite fiscal strains, the French economy has shown modest resilience. Growth remained below 1% year-on-year since late 2024, but the second quarter of 2025 brought a 0.3% expansion, up from 0.1% in the previous quarter. Manufacturing even returned to growth in August for the first time in more than two years.

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Analysts say the political turmoil alone is unlikely to tip the economy into recession. “French institutions are strong, and any political transition would be smooth,” Jérémie Peloso, chief European strategist at BCA Research, told Euronews Business. He predicted only a limited hit to consumer and business confidence.

Not everyone shares that view. Patrick Martin, president of Medef, France’s largest business federation, warned that uncertainty could freeze investments, accelerate bankruptcies, and put jobs at risk. He pointed to construction, chemicals, and hospitality as sectors already in crisis.

Risks of a Downgrade

The political standoff also raises the spectre of a sovereign credit downgrade. Investors are demanding higher returns to hold French bonds, with government borrowing costs now at their highest in a decade. Peloso warned France could lose its “AA” rating, pushing yields even higher.

While some, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, dismiss the idea of France needing an IMF bailout, analysts expect little progress on fiscal consolidation before 2027. Oxford Economics forecasts government debt could exceed 120% of GDP by then.

If Bayrou falls on Monday, President Emmanuel Macron will be forced to appoint yet another prime minister. But with no centrist majority in sight, observers warn the cycle of instability could persist until Macron’s term ends, leaving France’s debt problems to deepen unchecked.

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Uzbekistan Accelerates Energy Expansion With Renewables, Grid Upgrades and First Nuclear Plant

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Uzbekistan is embarking on a major expansion of its electricity sector, aiming to increase annual power generation from 82 billion kilowatt-hours to more than 120 billion kilowatt-hours over the next five years as the country responds to rising demand from industry, population growth and emerging digital industries.

The ambitious target highlights the government’s drive to strengthen energy security while gradually reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Officials see the power sector as a key area for investment, with renewable energy, electricity transmission and nuclear power expected to play central roles in the country’s long-term strategy.

Speaking at the Tashkent International Investment Forum, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said renewable sources are expected to generate 54% of Uzbekistan’s electricity by 2030. He noted that the country has already attracted nearly $6 billion in foreign investment for green energy projects and plans to invest another $4 billion in modernising electricity transmission networks.

Mirziyoyev also encouraged investment in solar and wind farms, battery energy storage systems, upgraded power grids and green-powered data centres, linking energy development with Uzbekistan’s industrial and digital transformation goals.

International financial institutions are already backing several major projects. In 2025, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) invested nearly $2 billion across 120 projects in Central Asia and Mongolia, with more than $1 billion directed toward Uzbekistan. More than half of the bank’s regional investments were classified as green initiatives, while about one-third supported sustainable infrastructure.

Among its projects in Uzbekistan is a $142 million financing package for a combined one-gigawatt solar photovoltaic plant and a battery storage system with a capacity of 1,336 megawatt-hours, developed alongside ACWA Power. The EBRD has also arranged financing of up to $195.5 million for a 300-megawatt solar facility and a 75-megawatt-hour battery storage project being developed by Masdar in the Kashkadarya region.

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EBRD Managing Director for Central Asia and Mongolia Huseyin Ozhan said expanding energy capacity requires both financial investment and policy reforms. He said governments across the region have adopted long-term decarbonisation plans, with international institutions helping develop roadmaps to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Ozhan said renewable energy remains the primary pathway for lowering carbon emissions while meeting growing electricity demand. He added that modern energy systems require not only new power plants but also battery storage, stronger grid connections and supportive regulations to attract private investment.

Alongside renewable energy, Uzbekistan has begun developing its first nuclear power project. Construction started in June in the Jizzakh region, where the planned facility will feature two large reactors with capacities of about 1,000 megawatts each, along with two small modular reactors of around 55 megawatts.

World Nuclear Association Director General Sama Bilbao y León said the project reflects a broader trend among rapidly growing economies seeking dependable low-carbon electricity. She noted that about 75% of Uzbekistan’s electricity currently comes from natural gas and said nuclear power will help diversify the country’s energy mix while allowing greater use of natural gas in other sectors of the economy.

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Big Tech Giants Lose $2.3 Trillion in June as Investors Shift Beyond AI Leaders

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The world’s largest technology companies endured their weakest monthly performance in years during June, as investors pulled back from the artificial intelligence-driven rally that had dominated global markets and shifted their attention toward a broader range of companies.

The so-called “Magnificent Seven” — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla — collectively lost about $2.3 trillion in market value during the month, marking a sharp reversal after leading Wall Street’s gains for more than three years.

Microsoft recorded one of the steepest declines, falling about 17 percent, its worst monthly performance since December 2000. Amazon dropped roughly 12 percent, Meta lost around 11 percent, while Nvidia and Alphabet declined by more than 5 percent each.

Apple reached a record closing price of $315.20 early in June before retreating more than 10 percent from its peak by month-end. Tesla experienced a volatile month, falling more than 6 percent during the first week before recovering most of those losses to finish the month nearly unchanged.

The decline comes as investors question whether the enormous spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure will generate sufficient returns. Major technology firms have committed hundreds of billions of dollars to expanding AI data centres and purchasing advanced semiconductors, driving up costs across the industry.

The world’s largest technology companies remain the biggest buyers of high-performance memory chips used in AI systems, contributing to supply shortages and soaring prices. Memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology recently reported earnings per share of $24.67 for its latest quarter, compared with $1.68 a year earlier, reflecting strong demand across the sector.

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Industry data also showed prices for DRAM memory chips, widely used in computers, smartphones and AI servers, surged by as much as 98 percent during the first quarter, increasing operating costs for companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence.

While the largest technology stocks struggled, much of the broader market continued to perform strongly. According to market analysts, companies outside the Magnificent Seven posted earnings growth of 17.5 percent during the first quarter, supported in part by semiconductor manufacturers and other technology suppliers benefiting from AI demand.

Analysts expect earnings growth among the remaining S&P 500 companies to exceed 20 percent in the second quarter, while forecasts for the Magnificent Seven have moderated. By the end of June, the S&P 493 Index, which excludes the seven technology giants, had gained 13.7 percent for the year, compared with a 6.6 percent decline for the Magnificent Seven. The broader S&P 500 Index advanced 7.4 percent over the same period.

Market observers say investors are becoming more selective, shifting their focus from AI infrastructure providers to companies expected to benefit from the technology’s wider adoption.

Despite the recent sell-off, the Magnificent Seven continue to deliver strong financial results, with estimated first-quarter earnings growth of about 29 percent. Analysts believe the group will remain influential in the technology sector, although investors are increasingly demanding clearer evidence that massive AI investments will translate into sustained profits.

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EBRD Approves $50 Million Loan to Support Young Entrepreneurs in Uzbekistan

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has approved financing of up to $50 million for Uzbekistan’s O’zsanoatqurilishbank (SQB) to expand lending to young entrepreneurs, as many small businesses continue to face challenges in obtaining bank financing despite playing a major role in the country’s economy.

The funding is being provided under the EBRD’s Youth in Business programme for Central Asia and will support micro, small and medium-sized enterprises owned or led by entrepreneurs under the age of 35.

The initiative comes as Uzbekistan’s young population continues to grow. Official figures show the country had 9.63 million people aged between 14 and 30 at the beginning of 2025, representing 25.7% of the total population.

The loan is one of two EBRD operations in Uzbekistan’s financial sector worth up to $100 million. Alongside the SQB financing, the bank is providing an additional loan of up to $50 million to the Mortgage Refinancing Company of Uzbekistan to support the country’s residential mortgage market and promote more consistent lending practices.

Small businesses remain a key driver of Uzbekistan’s economy. According to the National Statistics Committee, they accounted for 51.5% of the country’s gross domestic product during the first nine months of 2025. More than 1.2 million small business entities were operating across the country as of October 1, 2025.

Despite strong economic activity, access to finance remains a significant obstacle for many entrepreneurs.

Francis Malige, Managing Director and Head of the Financial Institutions Business Group at the EBRD, said the issue is not a shortage of available capital but ensuring that financing reaches smaller businesses.

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“Liquidity is certainly abundant,” Malige said. “What we see is that a lot of it goes to sovereign lending, to state borrowing, but not necessarily to financing the real economy.”

He noted that many small businesses struggle to meet banks’ lending requirements because they often lack detailed financial records, formal business planning and sufficient operating history. According to Malige, banks assessing smaller firms must also consider the experience of founders, the quality of management and the strength of business plans rather than relying solely on traditional lending criteria.

Collateral remains another major challenge. Many young entrepreneurs and first-time business owners do not own property or other fixed assets that banks typically require as security for loans.

To address those barriers, the EBRD provides technical assistance, training and risk-sharing mechanisms that encourage financial institutions to lend to businesses with limited collateral.

The financing programme also aims to improve opportunities for women entrepreneurs. Ceren Güven Güres, Head of the UN Women Central Asia Liaison Office, said Uzbekistan has introduced important reforms supporting women’s economic participation, but many continue to face obstacles beyond access to credit.

She said awareness of available programmes, social expectations, gender stereotypes and family care responsibilities continue to affect women’s ability to establish and grow businesses. Güres added that entrepreneurs benefit not only from financing but also from mentoring, training and ongoing business support as their companies expand.

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