Business
UK Economy Stagnates in Q3 Amid Growing Recession Fears
The UK economy recorded zero growth in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a marked slowdown from the 0.4% growth seen in the previous quarter, according to revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The flatlining gross domestic product (GDP) figure, which fell short of analyst expectations of 0.1%, underscores mounting economic challenges as businesses and households face heightened uncertainty.
Key Factors Behind the Stagnation
The lack of growth in the services sector, particularly in the insurance and financial industries, weighed heavily on the economy. The production sector also contracted by 0.4%, largely due to a decline in gas, electricity, air conditioning, and steam supply.
Alpesh Paleja, interim deputy chief economist at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), attributed the stagnation to a challenging business environment. “There is little festive cheer in our latest surveys, which suggest that the economy is headed for the worst of all worlds,” Paleja said. “Firms expect to reduce both output and hiring, and price growth expectations are getting firmer.”
Businesses have voiced concerns over policy changes introduced by the Labour government following its election in July, including higher employer national insurance contributions (NICs) announced in the Autumn Budget. These measures have reportedly led many companies to reassess their budgets as the new year approaches.
Mixed Sector Performance
While exports declined by 0.5% and imports fell by 2.5%, a slight rise in net trade helped offset some losses. Construction activity showed modest improvement, though it fell short of expectations.
Household spending remained unchanged from the previous quarter at 0.5%, as consumers grew cautious with festive expenses on the horizon. Meanwhile, business investment provided a rare bright spot, rising by 1.9% compared to 1.2% in the previous quarter.
Government consumption rose at a slower pace than anticipated, further reflecting the tepid economic environment.
Outlook for 2025
Paleja called on the government to take decisive action to restore business confidence and encourage investment. “As we head into 2025, firms are looking to the government to boost confidence and give them a reason to invest,” he said, highlighting the need for reforms in areas like the apprenticeship levy, business rates, and occupational health incentives.
Geopolitical uncertainties, including the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, along with escalating trade tensions involving China, are expected to add further pressure on businesses in 2025. Analysts warn that without significant government intervention—such as tax breaks and innovation incentives—the UK risks prolonged stagnation.
The Labour government faces increasing pressure to chart a clear industrial strategy that fosters stability and growth, providing much-needed support for both businesses and households as the economy heads into the new year.
Business
Shein Shares Slide on Hong Kong Debut as Tariffs Hit Fast-Fashion Business
Shein shares fell sharply on their Hong Kong trading debut on Tuesday, dropping as much as 10% before recovering some of the losses, as the fast-fashion company faces rising tariffs and shipping costs that have put pressure on its profits.
The listing marks the end of a lengthy effort by Shein to enter public markets. The company had previously considered listings in New York and London but faced regulatory scrutiny over its Chinese supply chain and business practices. It eventually turned to Hong Kong for its initial public offering.
Shein priced its shares at HK$48.56 each and raised about $1.7 billion (€1.46 billion), making the offering one of Hong Kong’s largest share sales of the year. The company opened its IPO for investors on August 24 before setting the final share price on August 31. Trading began on Tuesday after the exchange completed its approval process.
Shares initially dropped below HK$44 before narrowing their losses.
“Shein’s Hong Kong listing marks a new starting point,” Chief Financial Officer Leigh Gui said during the company’s listing ceremony.
The company has built its global business around producing inexpensive clothing quickly and shipping orders from China to customers in Western markets. That model is now facing higher costs as the US and European Union reduce or end tariff exemptions for low-value parcels from China.
Shein’s profits have been hit by the changing trade environment. The company reported a $99 million (€85 million) loss in the first quarter of the year, compared with a profit of $395 million (€340 million) a year earlier.
Higher shipping expenses have added to the pressure, making it harder for the company to maintain its low-price strategy. Tariff costs have also forced Shein to increase prices, potentially weakening one of its biggest attractions to consumers.
Shein was founded in China in 2012 and later moved its corporate headquarters to Singapore in 2021. Despite that move, its manufacturing network remains closely connected to Guangdong province, where the company developed its small-batch production system.
Founder Sky Xu has described Guangdong as the company’s roots and the starting point of its growth.
The company has also faced regulatory challenges in Europe. In February, the EU opened an investigation into Shein over concerns involving allegedly illegal products, including accusations related to child sexual abuse material.
Shein’s Hong Kong debut values the company at roughly $27 billion (€23.2 billion), far below its peak private-market valuation.
The listing nevertheless gives Hong Kong’s stock market a major boost. The exchange has attracted more than $40 billion (€34.4 billion) through IPOs so far this year, as companies continue to seek access to international investors through the city’s financial markets.
Business
Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 3.3% as Energy Costs Surge
Eurozone inflation rose sharply in August, reaching 3.3 percent as energy prices climbed at their fastest pace in months amid higher oil and gas costs and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The annual inflation rate increased from 2.9 percent in July, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office. The rise puts inflation well above the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target and could strengthen expectations of another interest rate increase.
Energy prices were the main driver behind the acceleration. They rose 14.3 percent in the year to August, up from an annual increase of 10.3 percent in July. On a monthly basis, energy prices increased 2.9 percent, contributing significantly to the overall rise in consumer prices.
Services inflation, which is closely monitored by the ECB because it tends to be more persistent, eased to 3 percent in August from 3.3 percent in July.
Core inflation also slowed slightly. The measure, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, fell from 2.5 percent to 2.4 percent. Food, alcohol and tobacco prices increased 1.2 percent from a year earlier, unchanged from July.
The figures indicate that higher energy costs have not yet translated into a broad increase in underlying price pressures. However, economists expect elevated gas and food prices to continue affecting inflation in the months ahead.
Leo Barincou, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said the increase was driven by a rebound in fuel prices following the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He said underlying price pressures remained contained because services inflation had eased, but inflation was likely to stay above the ECB’s target into next year.
Inflation varied considerably across the eurozone. Lithuania recorded the highest rate among countries included in the flash estimate, at 5.8 percent, while Estonia had the lowest at 1.3 percent.
Among the bloc’s largest economies, inflation stood at 2.7 percent in France and 2.9 percent in Germany, both below the eurozone average. France nevertheless saw a notable increase from 2.4 percent in July. Spain recorded inflation of 4.5 percent, while Italy reached 3.2 percent.
Markets are expecting the ECB to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at its September 10 meeting as policymakers respond to renewed price pressures.
Barincou said inflation was accelerating and the ECB was highly likely to raise rates next week, but warned against assuming that another increase would immediately follow, given that underlying inflation pressures remain relatively contained.
The latest figures leave policymakers facing a difficult balance between controlling inflation and avoiding excessive pressure on economic activity.
Business
White House Details Major Venezuela Oil Deal as US Secures Stake in Reserves
The White House has released details of a major agreement involving Venezuela’s oil industry, identifying the private company at the centre of the deal and outlining Washington’s financial and operational interests in more than 65 billion barrels of crude reserves.
The Trump administration described the arrangement as the largest oil deal in history. A fact sheet released Monday night named North American Blue Energy Partners, or NABEP, as the operator and provided details of the ownership structure and commitments involved.
Venezuela’s interim authorities have granted NABEP 100-year concessions covering 17 oil fields. The agreement was signed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
The reserves covered by the agreement are significantly larger than America’s domestic oil reserves. The 65 billion barrels under the concessions compare with about 46 billion barrels across US territory.
Speaking in the Oval Office on Monday, President Donald Trump described the Venezuelan reserves as an enormous resource that had remained unused. He said the US would take the oil out and again claimed major American oil companies were interested in participating.
“We have Exxon going in, we have Chevron going in, we have our big oil companies going in,” Trump said.
Under the agreement, NABEP will provide the US Department of War’s Office of Strategic Capital with a 35 percent equity stake in its parent company. The White House said the stake could eventually be worth hundreds of billions of dollars without requiring money from US taxpayers.
The US State Department will also have the right to purchase 20 percent of production from all current and future NABEP fields at production cost. The oil is intended in part to replenish the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Washington will also have a right of first refusal on the remaining 80 percent of production.
The agreement gives the US a veto over board appointments, while a majority of directors must be US citizens. The contracts will also operate under US law and be subject to US courts.
NABEP has committed to investing as much as $100 billion in Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and is expected to pay about $200 billion in royalties and taxes over 25 years.
Many of the fields involved were previously operated by Russian or Chinese companies, a development the White House has presented as a renewed assertion of US influence in the region.
Questions remain over the deal, particularly among major oil companies. NABEP is controlled by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, who has faced investigations by US and European authorities over previous dealings with Venezuela’s government. He has never been charged and denies wrongdoing.
ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which left Venezuela after assets were nationalised in 2007, have continued to call for strong legal protections before returning.
US lawmakers have also requested more information about the agreement, which was negotiated without congressional involvement.
Additional energy contracts are expected to be signed this week, potentially providing a clearer indication of whether major international oil companies are prepared to join the plan.
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