The euro’s growing appeal as a global safe-haven currency signals a promising shift for Europe’s economic role on the world stage. However, according to Sylvain Broyer, Chief EMEA Economist at S&P Global Ratings, the momentum is far from guaranteed without substantial economic reforms and a stronger focus on domestic demand.

In a commentary published exclusively for Euroviews, Broyer emphasized that while recent market behavior reflects increased confidence in the euro during times of financial uncertainty, sustaining that trust requires more than fiscal stimulus packages. “Being viewed as a safe haven is not always a positive—it brings responsibility,” he noted, urging Europe to reconfigure its growth model to become more self-reliant.

Currently, the euro comprises only 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, compared to 58% for the US dollar. Though the euro is strengthening and trading closer to its fair value of around $1.15, Broyer warns that maintaining or improving this position hinges on significant policy shifts, particularly a move toward boosting domestic consumption over export reliance.

Europe’s deep-rooted dependency on global trade, especially with a trade model shaped by decades of adherence to the Washington Consensus, leaves it vulnerable. Should the US further restrict imports, Europe could face intense competition from Chinese products redirected toward European markets. China’s edge in production efficiency, regulatory flexibility, and technological development could pose a serious challenge.

To safeguard against this, Broyer advocates for expanding Europe’s domestic economy while preserving its commitment to free trade. He points to Germany’s stimulus efforts and rising EU-wide defence spending as initial steps in the right direction. Together, these initiatives could lift the eurozone’s GDP by up to half a percentage point annually by 2028—an impactful change for a region where growth typically hovers around 1.2%.

Still, the economist warns that Europe’s limited fiscal capacity, constrained by budgetary rules and a relatively small EU budget, will require more than short-term spending to achieve long-term resilience. “Reforms must begin with dismantling internal trade barriers,” Broyer said, citing IMF research indicating that aligning Europe’s internal trade efficiency with US interstate levels could boost per capita GDP by 7%.

Further gains could come from fully realizing the EU’s proposed Savings and Investment Union (SIU). OECD data suggests that even modest increases in market capitalisation could raise per capita GDP by 2.5%, improving investment in innovation and reinforcing the continent’s competitive edge.

Ultimately, Broyer concluded, the euro’s emergence as a reliable safe haven depends not only on short-term fiscal tools but also on deep, structural reforms. These would enhance the EU’s ability to withstand global shocks and reduce dependence on the US dollar—offering a path to a more autonomous and robust economic future.