Around 860,000 Extremadurans go to the polls today in an unprecedented election in the region. María Guardiola, president of the Junta, called the elections early after failing to pass the 2026 budget, making this the first time in Extremadura’s history that regional elections are held separately from other communities and in December, on the eve of Christmas.

Polling stations opened at 9:00 a.m. across 791 authorised centres, and will remain open until 8:00 p.m., with the first provisional results expected around 9:30 p.m. In total, 890,985 voters are eligible to elect the 65 deputies of the Assembly, with 36 seats in Badajoz and 29 in Cáceres. More than 26,000 voters are participating for the first time.

The early election follows a political crisis that began on 27 October, when Guardiola dissolved the Assembly after Vox and the PSOE blocked the regional budget through a joint amendment. The campaign drew unusual national attention, with leaders of the main parties visiting Extremadura more frequently than in past elections. Controversy has also surrounded the disappearance of several mail-in ballot boxes, adding tension to the race.

Polls suggest that the People’s Party (PP) is likely to emerge as the winner but without a clear majority to govern alone. The PSOE, historically dominant in the region, is projected to fall below 30 percent, securing an estimated 21 seats, seven fewer than in 2023. This would mark one of the party’s weakest results in decades.

Vox is consolidating its position as the third-largest force and could double its representation, with estimates ranging from 11 to 13 seats. The party is expected to play a key role in forming a government, reviving its influence after a rupture with the PP two and a half years ago. Unidas por Extremadura is projected to slightly improve its outcome, potentially winning six to seven seats compared to four in 2023.

Parliamentary arithmetic indicates that a PP–Vox alliance would surpass the 33-seat threshold for an absolute majority, while the progressive bloc would struggle to reach it even in the most favorable scenario. Analysts say today’s results could set the tone for the broader electoral cycle, which will continue with elections in Aragón, Castilla y León, and possibly Andalusia in the coming months.

Turnout is an open question. Extremadura has historically seen participation above 70 percent, except in 2019 when it fell to around 69 percent. The change in election date, its separation from municipal polls, and proximity to the holiday season could affect voter turnout.

The day has also seen some operational challenges. Several polling stations reported absent officials, though substitutes were able to fill the gaps. Rainy weather has added to the complications, with northern Cáceres on yellow alert for heavy rainfall and temperatures ranging from 4ºC to 11ºC. The Red Cross has deployed more than 50 vehicles to transport elderly, dependent, or sick voters to polling stations.

Extremadura thus opens a long electoral calendar that could shape Spain’s political landscape until 2027. This election will determine whether the PP secures the stability it seeks or whether coalition deals once again decide who governs the region.