“In recent months, the EU has suffered the most serious diplomatic defeats. This will only change in the future if the member states possess greater military power, Karl-Heinz Paqué writes in an opinion article for Euronews.”
Europe is confronting a period of strategic vulnerability, as recent diplomatic setbacks highlight its limited ability to counter unilateral US actions. The July 2025 outcome of tariff talks in Scotland between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and then-US President Donald Trump has become a symbol of the EU’s weakened negotiating position. Under the agreement, the US maintained 15% tariffs on European goods, while Europe committed to major US investments in exchange for a pledge that higher duties would not be imposed. Analysts and critics have described the deal as amounting to little more than economic coercion.
The so-called “Greenland affair” serves as another example of Europe’s limited influence. Trump publicly suggested annexing the island, purchasing it, or offering financial incentives to Greenlanders that Denmark could not match. While EU leaders protested, the continent lacks the military power to credibly prevent such unilateral actions. Even NATO’s formal obligations would likely not compel European countries to challenge a decisive US move.
The core challenge stems from decades of underinvestment in European defence capabilities. While reliance on the US was once considered stable, Trump’s policies and rhetoric disrupted that trust, signaling the end of the post-World War II security paradigm. Analysts note that Europe now faces a structural imbalance: the EU’s combined military strength is far smaller than that of the United States, leaving it vulnerable to both economic and security-related coercion.
In response, NATO members have agreed to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2025, a significant but insufficient step. Paqué notes that Europe faces a long-term gap with the US that will persist for decades. Integration of the European defence market remains incomplete, limiting efficiencies and innovation in weapons production. Compounding the challenge is Europe’s slower economic growth relative to the US, which constrains the resources available for military expansion. Diverting 5% of a stagnant GDP to defence would impose far greater social and political strain than in a more dynamic economy.
Paqué argues that achieving meaningful military capabilities will require not only higher defence budgets but also radical economic reforms, particularly in Germany. Without stronger economic and industrial foundations, Europe risks remaining dependent on external security guarantees, limiting its ability to act independently on global issues.
The EU now faces its most serious political and security tests in decades. Analysts say the lessons of recent US-European interactions are clear: Europe must strengthen both its military capacity and economic resilience to avoid repeated diplomatic defeats. The next critical phase in this effort begins in 2026, when the effectiveness of NATO commitments and national reform plans will be tested on both strategic and economic fronts.