Business
World Bank Slashes Global Growth Forecasts Amid Rising Trade Tensions and Policy Uncertainty
The World Bank has sharply lowered its global growth forecasts for 2025, warning that rising trade frictions, policy uncertainty, and mounting geopolitical risks are dragging the world economy toward its weakest performance in over a decade.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released Tuesday, the Bank said it had revised down growth projections for nearly 70% of all economies — spanning regions and income levels. Global GDP is now expected to grow just 2.3% in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than projections made earlier this year.
“This will mark the slowest pace of global growth outside of actual recessions since the 2008 financial crisis,” the report stated, adding that while a full-blown global recession is not anticipated, the current decade is shaping up to be the weakest in terms of growth since the 1960s.
The Bank attributes the slowdown to a mix of trade-related tensions — particularly those linked to U.S. tariffs — as well as rising climate-related disruptions and weaker-than-expected expansion in key economies. These combined forces, it says, have injected fresh uncertainty into a world economy that only months ago appeared to be heading for a soft post-pandemic landing.
“Outside of Asia, the developing world is becoming a development-free zone,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “Growth in developing economies has declined from 6% annually in the 2000s to below 4% in the 2020s, mirroring the broader slowdown in global trade and investment.”
The report also warned that progress by emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) in closing income gaps with advanced nations and reducing extreme poverty is likely to stall unless deeper structural reforms are pursued.
Adding to the pressure, public debt in many of these economies has soared to record highs, while investment growth continues to lag. The World Bank urged EMDE governments to prioritise inflation control and build fiscal resilience through targeted spending.
Despite the bleak outlook, the Bank noted that global growth could recover more quickly if major economies take steps to resolve ongoing trade disputes. If current tariff levels were halved through new agreements, global GDP growth could be 0.2 percentage points stronger in both 2025 and 2026, the report said.
The warning comes at a time of growing uncertainty in global markets, as governments and central banks weigh how best to navigate fragile recoveries while responding to inflation, climate shocks, and political instability.
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