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UK Inflation Surges to 3%, Delaying Hopes for Interest Rate Cuts

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The UK’s inflation rate jumped to 3% in January, reaching a 10-month high and exceeding expectations, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The latest figures, up from 2.5% in December, cast doubt on the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), as inflation remains well above the central bank’s 2% target.

Unexpected Spike Raises Concerns

Economists had forecast a rise to 2.8%, but the higher-than-expected jump caught analysts by surprise. The increase was largely driven by rising airfares, food prices, and private school fees, following the Labour government’s tax hike on private schools.

The unexpected surge is likely to trouble BoE policymakers, who are already grappling with sluggish economic growth. Earlier this month, the central bank cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%, marking its third reduction in six months. The move came as the BoE halved its 2025 growth forecast to just 0.75%, reflecting a weak economic outlook.

With inflation still above target and growth remaining sluggish, concerns are mounting over the government’s ability to revive the economy. The Labour Party, which won the July general election, has struggled to boost consumer confidence, and its popularity has dipped amid disappointing economic indicators.

Rate Cuts Likely to Be Delayed

Economists now expect inflation to climb further in the coming months, driven by rising domestic energy bills. However, many anticipate a gradual decline in the second half of the year, which could give the BoE room for additional rate cuts—though less aggressively than previously expected.

“Another rate cut in March looks pretty unlikely, with the Bank continuing with its gradual pace of easing for now,” said Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at abrdn. “Any acceleration in rate cuts will depend on inflation falling closer to 2%.”

Financial analysts have echoed similar concerns, noting that while lower mortgage rates and falling food costs provide short-term relief, the broader economic picture remains uncertain.

“The sharp uptick in inflation demonstrates the tightrope the Bank is walking,” said Nick Saunders, CEO of Webull UK. “While some costs are easing, the 3% inflation rate is a real cause for concern.”

Market Reaction and Economic Impact

The unexpected inflation jump has already impacted currency markets. The British pound initially surged following the data release but quickly retreated, reflecting uncertainty over the BoE’s next moves.

“This was an unexpectedly large jump,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. “The ONS data shows that rising transport, food, and beverage costs were key contributors. Today’s hotter-than-expected numbers will make it harder for the Bank of England to cut rates further.”

With inflation trending higher than forecast, some analysts warn that further price increases could be on the horizon, especially with potential trade disruptions linked to U.S. tariff policies.

“Inflation is now 1% above target and heading in the wrong direction,” said Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell. “The Bank of England expects inflation to hit 3.7% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, rising National Insurance and the National Living Wage from April could further fuel inflationary pressures.”

While the BoE maintains that inflation will eventually return to 2%, the latest figures suggest the path to stability may take longer than expected. For now, businesses and consumers should brace for continued economic uncertainty, as interest rate cuts remain on hold—at least in the short term.

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Trump Highlights McDonald’s in Economic Message as Beef Prices Rise

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President Donald Trump used a speech at the McDonald’s Impact Summit on Monday to cast himself as a champion of affordability, even as beef prices continue to rise for U.S. consumers.

Trump praised McDonald’s as “one of the most successful companies in the history of the world” and thanked the fast-food chain for lowering prices. His remarks came amid data showing the average price of ground beef reached $6.32 per pound in September, up about 13 percent from a year earlier.

The president also referenced the Big Mac Index, a widely recognized, though informal, measure of inflation. According to the latest Economist reading, a U.S. Big Mac cost $6.01 in July, up from $5.69 a year earlier and $5.15 three years ago. The index compares Big Mac prices across countries to illustrate changes in purchasing power.

“I’m honoured to stand before you as the very first former McDonald’s fry cook ever to become president of the United States,” Trump told McDonald’s franchise representatives in Washington. He highlighted a brief stint working behind the counter, a reference used throughout his 2024 campaign.

Trump also recalled serving McDonald’s on the campaign trail from his private plane, Trump Force One, and said he once made Robert F. Kennedy Jr. try a meal at the chain. In addition, he mentioned tech industry figures, thanking Sundar Pichai and Sergey Brin for acknowledging his McDonald’s-themed campaign skit, which he described as receiving “more hits than anything in the history of Google.”

The president’s remarks tied the fast-food chain to his economic message, emphasizing support for small businesses and affordable dining options. “As president, I’m fighting every day to support small businesses like yours… we’re making tremendous progress,” Trump said, addressing the franchisees in attendance.

Despite Trump’s framing, household budgets continue to feel the impact of higher prices. While inflation has eased somewhat since post-pandemic peaks, many consumers still pay more for everyday goods such as beef and coffee than in previous years. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in September after increasing 0.4 percent in August.

Trump’s use of McDonald’s in his speech underscores the chain’s symbolic role as an American institution and a gauge of everyday affordability. By linking his message to the familiar restaurant brand, the president sought to present himself as closely connected to working-class concerns while highlighting ongoing economic initiatives.

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Japan’s Economy Contracts as U.S. Tariffs Hit Exports, Posing Early Test for New Prime Minister

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Japan’s economy recorded a sharp slowdown in the July–September quarter, contracting for the first time in a year and a half as U.S. trade tariffs weighed heavily on exports. Government figures released on Monday showed an annualised decline of 1.8%, driven largely by weakened overseas demand after Washington imposed new duties on Japanese goods.

While the downturn was significant, it was not as steep as the 2.6% drop projected by economists. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, gross domestic product slipped 0.4%, ending six straight quarters of expansion and signalling a tougher economic landscape for recently appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Exports recorded one of the sharpest declines of the quarter, falling 1.2% from the previous period. The government noted that some firms rushed shipments earlier in the year to get ahead of tariff deadlines, which boosted earlier export data but resulted in weaker numbers for the autumn quarter. On an annualised basis, exports tumbled 4.5%.

Imports were slightly lower as well, dipping 0.1%, while private consumption — a key driver of the domestic economy — inched up by the same margin. Economists say the modest rise in household spending is not enough to offset the strain placed on the country’s major industries.

The tariff pressures stem from measures introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has implemented a 15% duty on nearly all Japanese imports. Although this marks a reduction from the previous 25% rate, the impact has been severe for Japan’s export-heavy economy. Automakers such as Toyota Motor Corp. have long been central to Japan’s global trade profile, though many have built factories abroad to reduce exposure to such trade barriers.

The latest GDP results add to the mounting challenges facing Takaichi, who assumed office in October. Alongside the economic risks, her government is navigating rising diplomatic tensions with China. Earlier this month, the prime minister stated that Japan may consider military action if Beijing launches an attack on Taiwan, prompting sharp reactions from Chinese officials.

Talks between diplomats from both countries are scheduled to take place on Tuesday, with economic stability and regional security expected to dominate the agenda.

The combination of trade pressures, geopolitical strain and a fragile domestic recovery places Japan at a sensitive moment, with policymakers now under heightened pressure to stabilise growth in the months ahead.

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Global Stocks Fall as Tech Valuations and Fed Rate Uncertainty Weigh on Markets

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Global equities declined on Friday as investors grew cautious over high valuations in technology and AI sectors, coupled with uncertainty about whether the US Federal Reserve will deliver further interest-rate cuts. European markets opened sharply lower following losses in Asian shares and a drop on Wall Street on Thursday.

“Markets are down across the board as investors fret about cracks in the narrative that’s driven the mother of all tech rallies over the past few years,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. He highlighted concerns over elevated equity prices and heavy spending on AI amid signs of a fragile labor market.

In Europe, UK government bond yields surged after reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves had abandoned plans to raise income taxes in this month’s Autumn Budget, raising questions about a potential fiscal shortfall. The ten-year gilt yield climbed above 4.54% before easing slightly. Bank shares were among the worst performers on the FTSE 100, which fell more than 1.1% by 11:00 CET. Other European indices also declined, with the Stoxx 600 down nearly 1%, Germany’s DAX off 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.7%, Madrid’s benchmark losing 1.2% and Milan’s index down 1%.

Some companies bucked the overall trend. Luxury group Richemont rose 7.5% after exceeding first-half profit expectations, and Siemens Energy gained more than 10% after raising its 2028 financial targets. In contrast, Ubisoft delayed its six-month financial report, triggering a suspension in trading after an earlier drop of over 8%.

Wall Street had suffered a sharp decline on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both down 1.7%, and the Nasdaq falling 2.3%. Technology and AI-linked stocks experienced heavy selling, with Nvidia down 3.6%, Super Micro Computer off 7.4%, Palantir down 6.5%, Broadcom losing 4.3%, and Oracle sliding more than 4%. The sector’s rapid gains this year have drawn comparisons with the dot-com boom, prompting questions about the sustainability of current valuations.

Asian markets also reflected the cautious mood. China reported factory output growth at 4.9% year-on-year in October, the slowest in 14 months and below expectations. Weakness in fixed-asset investment, especially in the property sector, added to concerns. South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.8%, with Samsung Electronics down 5.5% and SK Hynix off 8.5%. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 1.8%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost nearly 1.8%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 2%. The Shanghai Composite declined 1%.

Oil prices rose, with Brent crude up 1.6% at $63.99 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate climbing 1.8% to $59.76. The dollar strengthened slightly against the yen at ¥154.55, while the euro traded at $1.1637.

Investors continue to weigh the risks of stretched valuations in technology against uncertain monetary policy, leaving markets cautious as they head into the final months of 2025.

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