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High Electricity Prices Threaten Europe’s Green Transition and Industrial Competitiveness

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Rising electricity costs are slowing Europe’s shift to a low-carbon economy and putting key industries at a competitive disadvantage, according to Morningstar’s latest Electrification Observer report.

The European Union has relied on electrification to reduce emissions in sectors such as transport, heating, and heavy industry. Despite generous subsidies and ambitious targets, the pace of adoption remains slow. Europe is on track to electrify just 25% of its energy consumption by 2030, short of the 32% needed to meet climate goals.

“Europe finds itself in a difficult bind,” said Tancrede Fulop, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. “High electricity prices deter adoption of clean technologies. Heat pumps remain unaffordable for many households, while energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and steel lose ground to competitors in the US and China.”

Electricity in Europe is significantly more expensive than in the US and China, a gap widened by post-2021 market turbulence. Morningstar forecasts EU electricity consumption to grow at only 1.1% annually from 2024 to 2030, compared with 1.4% in the US. Network levies and taxes are expected to keep prices high, reducing incentives for households and industry to switch to cleaner energy.

The report highlights heat pump deployment as a clear example. Only 39 million units are expected to be installed by 2030, far below the EU target of 60 million. Residential electrification is projected to rise from 26% in 2023 to 28% by 2030, resulting in annual CO₂ reductions of just 1.7%, slower than the previous decade.

Data centres and electric vehicles will contribute only modest gains. Energy consumption by data centres is expected to grow 15% annually, reaching 182 terawatt-hours by 2030. Battery electric vehicles are projected to make up 45% of European auto sales by 2030, but the electrification of transport will cover only 5% of total energy use, reducing CO₂ emissions from road transport by just 5%.

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High electricity costs are also affecting the chemical industry, which is expected to contract by 10% over the next five years. Green hydrogen production is forecast at just 0.6 megatonnes by 2030, far below the EU’s 10 Mt target, as power costs make it uncompetitive in most member states.

The report warns that slow electrification could increase political and policy pressure, potentially delaying EU climate measures such as the 2026 phaseout of free industrial carbon allowances and 2027 carbon pricing for residential heating. Under current trends, Europe is projected to reduce emissions by only 43% by 2030, short of the 55% target set for 1990 levels.

Regional differences are emerging. Northern Europe, France, and the Iberian Peninsula benefit from lower power costs and abundant clean energy, attracting data centres and green industrial projects. Other regions face higher costs and slower progress.

Morningstar concludes that Europe risks paying the high price of decarbonisation without achieving its full benefits, trapped in a transition that is both costly and politically sensitive.

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TikTok to Continue US Operations Following New Joint Venture Deal

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TikTok will continue operating in the United States after ByteDance, its Chinese parent company, agreed to spin off the US business into a new joint venture designed to safeguard American data and national security. The move comes after years of uncertainty over the platform’s future in the country.

Under the agreement, TikTok has partnered with three major investors — Oracle, Silver Lake, and Emirati investment firm MGX — to form a new TikTok US joint venture. The deal is set to close on 22 January, according to an internal memo seen by The Associated Press. In the memo, CEO Shou Zi Chew thanked employees for their work and urged them to focus on serving users, creators, businesses, and the global TikTok community.

Half of the new venture will be owned by the consortium of investors, with each holding a 15 percent stake. ByteDance will retain 19.9 percent, while 30.1 percent will be held by affiliates of existing ByteDance investors. The memo did not identify the remaining investors, and both TikTok and the White House declined to comment.

The US-based company will be governed by a seven-member majority-American board and will operate under rules intended to protect American user data. US data will be stored locally in a system managed by Oracle, and the company said users will experience the platform as they do today. Advertisers will also continue to reach global audiences without disruption.

A key aspect of the deal involves TikTok’s algorithm, which determines the content users see. The algorithm will be retrained on US user data to prevent outside manipulation and ensure the content feed remains under US oversight. The venture will also oversee content moderation and policies within the country.

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Concerns about the algorithm have been central to debates over national security. US officials have warned that the algorithm could be influenced by Chinese authorities, while Chinese law previously required ByteDance to maintain control over it. The new venture’s structure is intended to sever ties between the algorithm and ByteDance, as required by US legislation.

The agreement ends years of uncertainty about TikTok’s future in the US. In August 2020, the Trump administration attempted to ban the platform due to its Chinese ownership. Subsequent executive orders temporarily allowed TikTok to continue operating while negotiations over a sale or spinoff took place. The process faced multiple delays, including stalled talks after China resisted proposed deals.

TikTok now has more than 170 million users in the US. A recent Pew Research Center report found that 43 percent of American adults under 30 regularly access news through TikTok, surpassing YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. Following the announcement, Oracle shares rose $9.07 to $189.10 in after-hours trading.

The joint venture marks a major milestone for TikTok, ensuring the app can maintain its presence in the US while meeting regulatory and national security concerns.

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UK Job Market Trails European Peers as Spain and Italy Lead Vacancy Growth

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January is typically a busy period for career moves, but job seekers in the United Kingdom face a tougher environment than their counterparts across Europe. Recent data from global hiring platform Indeed shows that more than 10 million people remain unemployed across Europe’s five largest economies as 2025 draws to a close.

In the UK, job postings remain well below pre-pandemic levels, with the latest index reading 80.2 as of 28 November, a 20 percent drop compared with February 2020. This represents a decline from the same period in 2024, when the index stood at 88.3. Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Indeed, attributes the shortfall to rising employment costs and policy uncertainty.

“The UK’s relative underperformance partly reflects increased employment costs and policy uncertainty,” Kennedy said. The government recently raised employer social security contributions to 15 percent for salaries above £5,000, up from 13.8 percent on salaries above £9,100. The minimum wage has also increased significantly in recent years, and ongoing debates over the Employment Rights Bill have added to uncertainty. Kennedy noted that these factors have particularly affected hiring for low-wage positions, weighing on employer confidence.

The UK’s unemployment rate stood at 5.1 percent in the third quarter of 2025, a level last surpassed in early 2021. Kennedy suggested that if economic growth meets expectations and employer confidence improves in 2026, vacancy levels could stabilise or rise modestly, accompanied by a slight reduction in unemployment.

Across the continent, Germany and France continue to show stronger labour markets. Job postings in Germany reached 115.6 and 113.3 in France, approximately 15 percent above pre-pandemic levels, though both countries experienced declines compared with late 2024. Political and economic uncertainty has weighed on France, where repeated government disagreements and a downgraded credit rating have affected investment and consumption. Lisa Feist, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, highlighted that France’s labour market remains vulnerable despite recent agreement on a social security budget.

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Spain and Italy have posted the most robust results. Job postings in Spain reached 153.5, 54 percent above pre-pandemic levels, while Italy’s index stands at 168.1, up 68 percent. Spain’s vacancy index rose 13 points over the past year, with Italy recording a modest one-point increase. Kennedy attributed the growth to generally positive economic trends and persistent labour shortages in both countries.

Despite strong vacancy numbers, Spain’s unemployment rate remains the highest in the European Union, at 10.5 percent in October 2025. The OECD projects Spain will lead GDP growth among the top five European economies, with 2.9 percent in 2025, followed by 2.2 percent in 2026 and 1.8 percent in 2027.

These trends suggest that while the UK struggles to recover pre-pandemic momentum in job creation, Southern European economies continue to benefit from stronger demand for labour, highlighting widening differences in the region’s post-COVID economic recovery.

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France’s Economic Outlook Constrained by Debt and Political Deadlock

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France enters 2026 with an economy that is stable but increasingly limited by high public deficits, rising debt, and political deadlock. Growth is expected to recover modestly as inflation eases and financing conditions improve, but weak fiscal consolidation and legislative gridlock continue to weigh on the country’s economic prospects.

Credit rating agency KBRA recently downgraded France’s long-term sovereign rating to AA-, citing persistently high deficits and a deteriorating debt trajectory. The agency revised its outlook to stable from negative but warned that without decisive reforms and spending restraint, French sovereign credit metrics would remain under pressure.

“Despite France’s exceptional access to liquidity, a fragmented political environment is weighing on credit metrics by impeding meaningful fiscal consolidation and keeping deficits elevated,” Ken Egan, senior director for sovereigns at KBRA, told Euronews.

France’s economic growth remains modest. GDP expanded by 1.1% in 2024 and is projected at around 0.8% in 2025, weighed down by weak domestic demand, subdued investment, and uncertainty linked to geopolitics and trade fragmentation. Household consumption has remained cautious despite falling inflation and improving real wages, while investment has been constrained by higher interest rates, particularly in construction and other sensitive sectors.

Government programmes such as the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and France 2030 are expected to provide support, but their impact may be limited without broader fiscal reforms. On the positive side, headline harmonised inflation dropped to 0.9% year-on-year in late 2025, below the European Central Bank’s target and below the eurozone average, offering some relief to households.

Political challenges continue to hinder fiscal execution. President Emmanuel Macron’s second term has been marked by a fragmented parliament and difficulty passing major legislation. Budgetary impasses, no-confidence votes, and frequent use of constitutional tools have slowed reforms, including the 2023 pension measures. Originally expected to generate €11 billion in annual savings by 2027, these adjustments are now projected to deliver just €100 million in 2026.

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The fiscal outlook remains vulnerable. The International Monetary Fund projects France’s debt-to-GDP ratio rising from around 116% in 2025 toward nearly 130% by 2030. Rising interest payments will further strain public finances, with debt servicing costs expected to reach €59.3 billion in 2026, up from €36.2 billion in 2020. A primary budget deficit projected at 3.4% between 2026 and 2030 limits the government’s ability to stabilise the debt trajectory.

Despite these challenges, France retains strong market access. Government bonds benefit from deep liquidity, a diversified investor base, and the country’s core status within the eurozone. KBRA notes that while liquidity reduces near-term risks, the lack of fiscal consolidation and ongoing political fragmentation could leave France’s debt burden on an upward path, limiting policy flexibility in the years ahead.

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