Business
High Electricity Prices Threaten Europe’s Green Transition and Industrial Competitiveness
Rising electricity costs are slowing Europe’s shift to a low-carbon economy and putting key industries at a competitive disadvantage, according to Morningstar’s latest Electrification Observer report.
The European Union has relied on electrification to reduce emissions in sectors such as transport, heating, and heavy industry. Despite generous subsidies and ambitious targets, the pace of adoption remains slow. Europe is on track to electrify just 25% of its energy consumption by 2030, short of the 32% needed to meet climate goals.
“Europe finds itself in a difficult bind,” said Tancrede Fulop, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. “High electricity prices deter adoption of clean technologies. Heat pumps remain unaffordable for many households, while energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and steel lose ground to competitors in the US and China.”
Electricity in Europe is significantly more expensive than in the US and China, a gap widened by post-2021 market turbulence. Morningstar forecasts EU electricity consumption to grow at only 1.1% annually from 2024 to 2030, compared with 1.4% in the US. Network levies and taxes are expected to keep prices high, reducing incentives for households and industry to switch to cleaner energy.
The report highlights heat pump deployment as a clear example. Only 39 million units are expected to be installed by 2030, far below the EU target of 60 million. Residential electrification is projected to rise from 26% in 2023 to 28% by 2030, resulting in annual CO₂ reductions of just 1.7%, slower than the previous decade.
Data centres and electric vehicles will contribute only modest gains. Energy consumption by data centres is expected to grow 15% annually, reaching 182 terawatt-hours by 2030. Battery electric vehicles are projected to make up 45% of European auto sales by 2030, but the electrification of transport will cover only 5% of total energy use, reducing CO₂ emissions from road transport by just 5%.
High electricity costs are also affecting the chemical industry, which is expected to contract by 10% over the next five years. Green hydrogen production is forecast at just 0.6 megatonnes by 2030, far below the EU’s 10 Mt target, as power costs make it uncompetitive in most member states.
The report warns that slow electrification could increase political and policy pressure, potentially delaying EU climate measures such as the 2026 phaseout of free industrial carbon allowances and 2027 carbon pricing for residential heating. Under current trends, Europe is projected to reduce emissions by only 43% by 2030, short of the 55% target set for 1990 levels.
Regional differences are emerging. Northern Europe, France, and the Iberian Peninsula benefit from lower power costs and abundant clean energy, attracting data centres and green industrial projects. Other regions face higher costs and slower progress.
Morningstar concludes that Europe risks paying the high price of decarbonisation without achieving its full benefits, trapped in a transition that is both costly and politically sensitive.
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