The U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first contraction in three years, according to revised figures released Thursday by the Commerce Department. The downturn was driven primarily by a sharp increase in imports, as businesses rushed to bring in foreign goods ahead of sweeping tariffs announced by President Donald Trump.
The updated gross domestic product (GDP) figures represent a modest revision from the department’s earlier estimate of a 0.3% decline. The reversal follows a 2.4% expansion in the final quarter of 2024.
Imports surged at a staggering 42.6% annual rate during the January-to-March period—the fastest pace since late 2020. That influx of foreign goods, though technically counted as part of consumer spending, subtracts from GDP since it represents consumption of items not produced domestically. The import spike alone shaved more than five percentage points off overall economic growth.
At the same time, consumer spending weakened significantly, and federal government expenditures dropped at a 4.6% annual rate, the steepest decline in three years.
“The rush to import goods ahead of the tariffs created a temporary drag on growth,” said a senior Commerce Department official, noting that the effect is expected to ease in the second quarter.
Despite the overall contraction, underlying economic indicators remained relatively strong. Business investment soared by 24.4%, and inventory accumulation—prompted by concerns over supply disruptions—contributed more than 2.6 percentage points to GDP. A core measure of economic activity, which excludes volatile elements like exports and government spending, rose at a solid 2.5% annual pace, down slightly from 2.9% in the previous quarter.
President Trump’s trade policies have introduced a new layer of uncertainty for U.S. businesses. The administration imposed 10% tariffs on a broad array of imports, alongside specific duties on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. However, a federal court on Wednesday struck down the blanket tariffs and several country-specific levies, ruling that the president had exceeded his legal authority.
Economists suggest that the first-quarter weakness may prove temporary but warn that the ongoing trade disputes could weigh on growth throughout the year. The Commerce Department will release its final estimate for first-quarter GDP on June 26.