Business
France’s Economic Outlook Constrained by Debt and Political Deadlock
France enters 2026 with an economy that is stable but increasingly limited by high public deficits, rising debt, and political deadlock. Growth is expected to recover modestly as inflation eases and financing conditions improve, but weak fiscal consolidation and legislative gridlock continue to weigh on the country’s economic prospects.
Credit rating agency KBRA recently downgraded France’s long-term sovereign rating to AA-, citing persistently high deficits and a deteriorating debt trajectory. The agency revised its outlook to stable from negative but warned that without decisive reforms and spending restraint, French sovereign credit metrics would remain under pressure.
“Despite France’s exceptional access to liquidity, a fragmented political environment is weighing on credit metrics by impeding meaningful fiscal consolidation and keeping deficits elevated,” Ken Egan, senior director for sovereigns at KBRA, told Euronews.
France’s economic growth remains modest. GDP expanded by 1.1% in 2024 and is projected at around 0.8% in 2025, weighed down by weak domestic demand, subdued investment, and uncertainty linked to geopolitics and trade fragmentation. Household consumption has remained cautious despite falling inflation and improving real wages, while investment has been constrained by higher interest rates, particularly in construction and other sensitive sectors.
Government programmes such as the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and France 2030 are expected to provide support, but their impact may be limited without broader fiscal reforms. On the positive side, headline harmonised inflation dropped to 0.9% year-on-year in late 2025, below the European Central Bank’s target and below the eurozone average, offering some relief to households.
Political challenges continue to hinder fiscal execution. President Emmanuel Macron’s second term has been marked by a fragmented parliament and difficulty passing major legislation. Budgetary impasses, no-confidence votes, and frequent use of constitutional tools have slowed reforms, including the 2023 pension measures. Originally expected to generate €11 billion in annual savings by 2027, these adjustments are now projected to deliver just €100 million in 2026.
The fiscal outlook remains vulnerable. The International Monetary Fund projects France’s debt-to-GDP ratio rising from around 116% in 2025 toward nearly 130% by 2030. Rising interest payments will further strain public finances, with debt servicing costs expected to reach €59.3 billion in 2026, up from €36.2 billion in 2020. A primary budget deficit projected at 3.4% between 2026 and 2030 limits the government’s ability to stabilise the debt trajectory.
Despite these challenges, France retains strong market access. Government bonds benefit from deep liquidity, a diversified investor base, and the country’s core status within the eurozone. KBRA notes that while liquidity reduces near-term risks, the lack of fiscal consolidation and ongoing political fragmentation could leave France’s debt burden on an upward path, limiting policy flexibility in the years ahead.
Business
Warner Bros Discovery Poised to Oppose Paramount’s Hostile Takeover Bid
Warner Bros Discovery is expected to advise shareholders to reject a hostile takeover attempt from Paramount Global, dealing a significant setback to Paramount’s $108 billion bid, according to multiple news reports. Euronews has reached out to Warner Bros Discovery for comment.
Paramount launched the takeover attempt in early December, offering $30 per share in cash directly to Warner Bros shareholders after the studio’s board rejected several acquisition proposals. Netflix has also made an offer of $27.75 per share in cash and stock. Since the bidding intensified, Warner Bros shares have risen to around $30, up from roughly $24 earlier this month.
The battle for Warner Bros highlights a high-stakes contest for influence in the U.S. media industry. Acquiring the studio would provide access to an extensive content library, including HBO programming and the DC Comics franchise, home to iconic characters such as Batman and Superman. Warner Bros’ stock has long been viewed as undervalued due to high debt and intense competition from streaming giants like Netflix, Amazon, and Apple.
Netflix formally offered $82.7 billion for Warner Bros Discovery on December 5, a deal backed by the studio’s board. The agreement includes HBO Max and HBO content, with Warner Bros CEO David Zaslav describing it as combining “two of the greatest storytelling companies in the world.” If Warner Bros were to break its agreement with Netflix, it would owe the streaming service $2.8 billion in termination fees.
Paramount faces additional challenges, particularly regarding the financing of its bid. Larry Ellison, Oracle co-founder, is a principal backer of Paramount Skydance’s offer, providing substantial equity and attracting other investors. His son, David Ellison, serves as chairman and CEO of Paramount Skydance. Some analysts view the bid as potentially influenced by political considerations due to the Ellisons’ close ties to former President Donald Trump and their role as major Republican donors.
Trump himself publicly weighed in on the sale, insisting that CNN, owned by Warner Bros’ parent company, should be divested to ensure broader political balance. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, was initially listed as a backer of Paramount’s bid through his private equity firm, Affinity Partners, but the firm later withdrew from the financing consortium.
Trump has recently criticised Paramount, claiming he is not as close to the company as suggested. His remarks followed CBS’ cancellation of The Late Show, hosted by Stephen Colbert, and a $16 million defamation settlement linked to a 60 Minutes interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump said on social media that he felt the company had treated him worse than expected.
As Warner Bros Discovery prepares to guide shareholders on Paramount’s offer, the battle underscores the high stakes for control of one of Hollywood’s most valuable media and entertainment companies.
Business
Italy Considers Doubling Cash Payment Limit Amid Tax Evasion Concerns
Italy is considering raising the maximum limit for cash payments from €5,000 to €10,000 as part of an amendment to the 2026 Budget Law, sparking debate among lawmakers and economists. Proponents argue the move increases consumer freedom, while critics warn it could encourage tax evasion and illegal activity.
The amendment, tabled by the Brothers of Italy party led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, follows a previous increase from €2,000 to €5,000 in 2022, which came into effect in January 2023. Meloni’s government maintains that the new measure will not affect tax compliance.
Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, head of the League party, defended the proposal, saying, “People should be able to use their money as they wish. No one should have to justify what they have in their bank account.” He emphasized that the move aligns with the principle of individual financial freedom.
Opponents, including the Democratic Party and the Greens and Left Alliance, argue the proposal risks expanding Italy’s underground economy. Angelo Bonelli of Green Europe warned that it could create new opportunities for tax evasion and the black market. Similarly, Giacinto Palladino, head of the banking and insurance union First Cisl, noted that cash has historically facilitated evasion and money laundering, particularly in sectors such as construction, textiles, and catering.
To offset some concerns, the amendment proposes a €500 stamp duty for transactions between €5,000 and €10,000 and would require invoices for such payments. Analysts caution, however, that these measures could be circumvented through private agreements.
Italy’s shadow economy remains substantial. ISTAT reported that in 2023, the value of unregistered economic activity, including irregular labor, drug trafficking, prostitution, and tobacco smuggling, reached €217.5 billion, or 10.2 percent of GDP. Past studies indicate tax evasion in Italy ranged between €92 billion and €105 billion in the years leading up to 2022, depending on the source.
European regulations also set context for the debate. In 2024, the EU Council and Parliament adopted measures to limit cash payments to €10,000 for goods and services, aiming to curb money laundering and terrorism financing. The limit is not mandatory, allowing countries to set lower thresholds if desired.
Some lawmakers argue that Italy’s cash limits are not the main driver of evasion. Massimo Garavaglia, president of the Senate Finance Commission, said the focus should be on whether cash usage results from evasion, noting that similar limits in countries like Germany have not drastically altered compliance.
The proposed amendment is now under parliamentary review, with public debate likely to continue as Italy balances consumer rights, economic practices, and the fight against the underground economy.
Business
PayPal Seeks Utah Bank Charter to Expand Small Business Lending
PayPal has applied to establish a Utah-chartered bank, a move that would allow the company to hold deposits and increase lending capacity to small businesses. The San Jose-based online payments giant aims to strengthen its banking operations and offer more direct financial services, reducing its reliance on third-party partners.
While PayPal already provides small-business loans through products like PayPal Working Capital, it does so mainly in partnership with traditional banks, using external balance sheets. Creating PayPal Bank would allow the company to fund loans more directly, operate with greater efficiency, and maintain increased control over deposit and lending activities.
“Securing capital remains a significant hurdle for small businesses striving to grow and scale,” said Alex Chriss, PayPal president and CEO. “Establishing PayPal Bank will strengthen our business and improve our efficiency, enabling us to better support small business growth and economic opportunities across the US.”
In addition to lending, PayPal expects to offer interest-bearing savings accounts to customers, expanding its financial product offerings beyond payments and credit services. The company already holds a banking licence in Luxembourg, allowing it to provide certain banking services in Europe.
PayPal is pursuing a state-chartered industrial loan company (ILC) licence in Utah. ILCs are a special category of banks allowed in only a few US states, including Utah, and can be owned by non-bank parent companies such as fintech firms or retailers. Unlike traditional banks, ILCs are not required to register as a bank holding company under the Bank Holding Company Act, which subjects the entire corporate group to Federal Reserve oversight.
Utah has long been a hub for ILCs due to its established regulatory framework and experience overseeing banks owned by non-banking corporations. Major companies with Utah-based ILCs include Ally Bank, originating from General Motors’ financing arm, and Toyota Financial Savings Bank, which supports Toyota’s auto-financing business.
If PayPal’s application is approved, Mara McNeill will serve as President of PayPal Bank. McNeill brings over 25 years of experience in banking, commercial lending, and private equity. Before joining PayPal, she oversaw a similar transition to an ILC as President and CEO of Toyota Financial Savings Bank.
PayPal’s move signals a growing trend of fintech companies seeking more control over financial services. By establishing its own bank, the company hopes to streamline operations, offer more flexible products to small businesses, and strengthen its foothold in the US financial services market.
The application is now under review by Utah regulators, who will assess the company’s suitability to operate a state-chartered bank. Approval would mark a significant expansion for PayPal, combining its payments expertise with a broader banking role in the domestic market.
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