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Global Markets Rally on Hopes of Iran War De-escalation After Trump Comments

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Stock markets across Europe and Asia rose strongly on Wednesday as investors reacted to signs that the conflict involving Iran could ease in the coming weeks. Optimism followed remarks by Donald Trump, who said the United States may halt military operations within two to three weeks, regardless of whether a formal agreement is reached.

The improved sentiment lifted major European indices. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained more than 1 percent, while the broader Stoxx 600 climbed about 2.5 percent. In United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose around 0.8 percent, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 also moved higher. Italy’s FTSE MIB recorded the strongest gains among major European markets, rising roughly 1.7 percent.

The rally followed comments by Trump during a press briefing at the White House on Tuesday, where he said the US would “probably” end attacks on Iran soon. He also indicated that Washington would not be involved in what happens next in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy shipments.

Oil markets reacted quickly to the prospect of de-escalation, with Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate futures falling about 4 percent, dropping below $100 per barrel. Lower energy prices provided additional support to equities, which have been under pressure due to rising fuel costs and supply concerns.

Asian markets also posted strong gains. South Korea’s Kospi index surged more than 8 percent, recovering losses seen earlier in the week, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 2 percent. A survey from Japan’s central bank released on Wednesday showed improving business sentiment among major manufacturers, despite ongoing geopolitical risks.

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Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed more than 2 percent, and China’s Shanghai Composite rose around 1.5 percent. India’s Sensex advanced roughly 2 percent, while Australia’s ASX 200 and Taiwan’s Taiex also recorded gains.

Analysts cautioned that while markets have responded positively, uncertainty remains. “De-escalation hopes have given markets a lift, but the effects of the war are likely to persist even if it ends soon,” said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics.

US stock futures also moved higher, building on strong gains from the previous session when Wall Street recorded its best day in nearly a year. The S&P 500 rose 2.9 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5 percent and the Nasdaq jumped 3.8 percent.

Investors are now closely watching for further signals from Washington, including an expected address by Trump, as markets weigh whether the current rally can be sustained if geopolitical tensions ease further.

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Europe’s Public Holidays Come with a Price Tag as Denmark Cuts One for Defence Spending

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Europe averages double-digit public holidays each year, but each day off carries an economic cost, as Denmark showed when it scrapped a historic holiday to fund its military.

Every spring, countries across the continent close offices for a series of holidays, including Easter Monday, Labour Day, Ascension, and Whit Monday. While these breaks are widely appreciated, economists have long questioned the financial impact of paid leave.

Denmark offered a clear answer in 2024 when the government eliminated Great Prayer Day—Store Bededag—a nearly 340-year-old Lutheran holiday observed the fourth Friday after Easter. The decision, intended to boost defence spending, was estimated to generate around 3 billion Danish kroner (€400 million) in additional tax revenue annually. Lawmakers said the funds were needed to reach NATO’s target of 2% of GDP on defence.

The move, passed by parliament in February 2023, sparked street protests and a surge in unofficial sick days on what would have been the first cancelled holiday. The reduction left Denmark with 10 public holidays in 2024, one fewer than before and below Europe’s continent-wide average of 11.7 days, according to Eurostat.

Denmark is not alone in cutting holidays for fiscal reasons. Portugal eliminated four public holidays in 2012 as part of a post-crisis austerity programme, though all were later reinstated in 2016. The political calculus is similar: in tight fiscal conditions, each bank holiday represents a measurable economic cost.

The variation in holidays across the EU is significant. Lithuania and Cyprus have 15 public holidays this year, while Germany has nine national holidays, with additional days varying by federal state. Economists note that a country with 15 holidays instead of nine foregoes roughly 0.48% of GDP annually, before any consumption offsets. For Lithuania, with a 2024 economy valued at €79 billion, that translates into a notional €360 million difference compared with Germany.

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Studies also show that the economic impact is uneven. Research by Lucas Rosso and Rodrigo Wagner, cited by the IMF in 2023, found that each extra public holiday reduces annual GDP by about 0.08%. The effect is largest in manufacturing and negligible in sectors like mining or agriculture. However, the researchers caution that not all costs are economic: holidays are linked to fewer workplace accidents, higher short-term happiness, and sustained worker productivity.

Economists stress that more working hours do not always equate to more output. A well-rested workforce can maintain higher hourly productivity, partially offsetting lost days. Even so, the Rosso-Wagner framework demonstrates that every holiday has a measurable effect on national output, with the impact growing in larger economies like Germany, where each lost working day is worth roughly €3.4 billion.

Denmark’s decision to cut Store Bededag illustrates the trade-off governments face between fiscal priorities and tradition. As Europe continues to weigh the cost of its public holidays, policymakers must balance economic efficiency with social and cultural expectations.

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First Western European Ship Crosses Strait of Hormuz Since Iran War Began

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Police in Paris remain on high alert days after a foiled attack on a Bank of America branch led to four people, including three minors, being placed under formal investigation. Authorities say the incident highlights potential risks to US and Israeli interests in France amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

American multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs placed its Paris offices under police surveillance on Thursday after US authorities warned of a threat from a pro-Iranian group planning attacks on US bank buildings in the city using explosive devices. The bank authorised its Paris employees to work remotely. “The safety of our employees is our absolute priority, and we are taking the necessary measures to ensure their security,” a spokeswoman told AFP.

While French security services believe France itself is unlikely to be directly targeted, officials warn that US and Israeli establishments could be at risk due to escalations in the region. Goldman Sachs declined to comment further when contacted by Euronews.

The heightened alert follows a foiled bomb attack on a Bank of America branch in Paris on 28 March. Four individuals—a young adult and three minors—have been formally charged. French authorities say the adult allegedly recruited the teenagers, who were reportedly tasked with planting an explosive device outside the building.

France’s National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor’s Office indicated that the attack may be linked to Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI), a little-known Islamist group with possible ties to Iran. No formal connection has yet been established. HAYI, which translates as the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right, has previously claimed responsibility for attacks on Jewish community targets in the UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

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Security experts note that the timing of the alert is linked to the wider Middle East conflict. The US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on 28 February, sparking a regional escalation that has raised concerns about potential reprisals abroad.

French authorities have increased police presence around US-linked financial institutions and diplomatic missions. Sources say intelligence sharing between French and US security services has intensified to prevent any further attacks.

The Bank of America incident underscores a growing concern among multinational corporations operating in Europe. Companies with US and Israeli ties are reviewing security protocols, and some, including Goldman Sachs, have temporarily shifted employees to remote work while authorities monitor threats.

Analysts say that while the immediate risk to the general public remains low, the foiled attack demonstrates the capability of small extremist cells to exploit local recruits, particularly minors, in planning acts of terrorism. Authorities are urging vigilance and cooperation with law enforcement to prevent further incidents.

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First Western European Ship Crosses Strait of Hormuz Since Iran War Began

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A vessel owned by France’s CMA CGM has become the first ship tied to Western Europe to cross the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, according to ship tracking data.

The Maltese-flagged container ship, CMA CGM Kribi, sailed eastbound from waters off Dubai on Thursday afternoon. The vessel, which belongs to the world’s third-largest container line, broadcast its French ownership while navigating the approved corridor between the Iranian islands of Qeshm and Larak.

The CMA CGM Kribi had remained idle in the Gulf since early March, like many other non-Iranian vessels, after commercial traffic sharply declined following the outbreak of hostilities. CMA CGM, majority-owned by the Saade family, coordinated the transit with Iranian maritime authorities. The ship is believed to be en route to Pointe Noire in the Republic of Congo, operating as part of a service linking India, the Middle East Gulf, and Africa.

Ship tracking experts said the successful passage may encourage other carriers to resume operations if the corridor remains reliable in the coming days. Previous test transits by Chinese-linked vessels demonstrated that controlled movements through the waterway were possible, but Western European ships had largely stayed away amid safety and insurance concerns.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, announced on Thursday that Tehran is drafting a protocol with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state media. Reports suggest the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is considering charging tolls starting at $1 per barrel and accepting payment in Chinese yuan or stablecoins. Ships may also be required to submit detailed data to IRGC-linked intermediaries for approval, with access determined by a country ranking system.

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In a related development, an LNG tanker has entered the Strait of Hormuz in what could be the first transit of its kind since the conflict began. The Sohar LNG vessel, not carrying cargo, changed course toward the Qalhat LNG export terminal in Oman and moved eastward through the waterway on Thursday, according to ship tracking data.

Energy carriers such as tankers and gas vessels have largely avoided the Strait since the war started due to heightened risks and the suspension of standard insurance coverage. While container ships have led recent test transits, the LNG tanker’s movement underscores the gradual return of different vessel types to the strategically critical maritime chokepoint.

Analysts said these developments signal a cautious resumption of commercial activity in the Strait, a key route for global trade and oil shipments, as regional authorities work to manage maritime security and restore confidence among international shipping companies.

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