A new analysis by the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel has warned that Europe must urgently adapt its defence strategy as modern warfare shifts in favour of low-cost drones and missiles, exposing vulnerabilities in traditional air defence systems.
The report highlights a growing imbalance in the cost of defence versus attack. Each interceptor missile from systems such as the Patriot air defence platform can cost around $4 million, while drones like those deployed by Iran are often worth only tens of thousands of euros. This gap, analysts say, is placing increasing strain on the stockpiles of countries engaged in sustained conflicts.
According to the report’s authors, Guntram Wolff and Alexandr Burilkov, the widespread use of inexpensive drones and missiles has reshaped the strategic environment. They argue that attackers can now deploy large volumes of relatively cheap weapons, overwhelming even advanced air defence networks.
The findings draw on recent developments in the Middle East, where US and Israeli forces have used large numbers of interceptors to counter drone and missile attacks. Stockpiles are being depleted faster than they can be replenished, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.
While these challenges are evident in the Iran conflict, the report warns that Europe faces a more significant threat from Russia. Unlike Iran, Russia has a more advanced air force and integrated missile defence systems, which could make any future conflict far more intense.
Bruegel suggests that a potential confrontation in Europe could resemble an escalated version of current conflicts, with waves of drones and missiles overwhelming defensive systems. In this context, the experience of Ukraine offers valuable lessons.
Ukraine has been forced to carefully manage its limited supply of interceptors while facing repeated strikes on cities and infrastructure. The situation has also placed pressure on European countries supplying air defence systems to Kyiv, reducing their own reserves.
The report identifies two key priorities for European policymakers. The first is to invest heavily in low-cost interception technologies. Ukrainian firms have already developed cheaper counter-drone systems, which are attracting international interest. Expanding such capabilities could help reduce the financial strain of defending against mass attacks.
The second recommendation is more complex: developing stronger offensive capabilities. Rather than relying solely on defensive systems, Europe should be able to target the production facilities and infrastructure that support enemy drone and missile programmes. Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia have demonstrated how such actions can disrupt supply chains and reduce the volume of incoming attacks.
Recent trends suggest growing momentum in this direction. European defence technology startups raised significant funding in 2025 and early 2026, with companies working on more affordable interception systems and advanced strike capabilities.
The report concludes that future conflicts will be defined by scale, speed and cost efficiency. For Europe, adapting to this reality will require a shift away from reliance on expensive defensive systems toward a broader strategy that balances affordability, production capacity and deterrence.