Business
German Economy Contracts in Second Quarter as Tariffs and Weak Industrial Output Take Toll
Germany’s economy slipped back into contraction in the second quarter of the year, raising fresh concerns about the country’s ability to weather mounting trade pressures and structural challenges.
Figures released by the Federal Statistical Office on Friday showed gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3 percent from April to June compared with the previous quarter. The decline was steeper than the initial estimate of a 0.1 percent contraction and followed modest growth at the start of the year, when businesses ramped up exports to the United States ahead of new tariffs.
The statistics office noted that industrial production had performed “worse than initially assumed,” dragging down overall output. Household spending was also weaker than first estimated, revised to growth of just 0.1 percent after incorporating June data on accommodation and food services.
While government consumption rose by 0.8 percent, investments, construction activity, and net exports all posted declines. The result marked a return to recessionary conditions for Europe’s largest economy, which has faced persistent headwinds from global trade disputes and shifting industrial demands.
Despite the gloomy GDP data, there are signs of resilience. A separate report released Thursday by S&P Global showed business activity in Germany’s private sector expanded for the third consecutive month in August. The survey of purchasing managers pointed to the fastest pace of growth since March, although the improvement was described as “modest.”
Some analysts link the cautious optimism to Berlin’s recent policy moves. Earlier this year, lawmakers amended Germany’s constitution to relax its strict “debt brake” rule for defense spending above 1 percent of GDP. In addition, the government established a €500 billion extrabudgetary fund to finance infrastructure projects, providing potential stimulus to offset external shocks.
Nevertheless, uncertainty over trade relations with the United States remains a significant risk. Tariffs imposed by Washington have already squeezed key export sectors, and the outlook remains clouded by the possibility of further duties.
“Recent corporate results were already a painful reminder that US tariffs, but also structural transitions, were in full swing in the second quarter, weighing on company results,” said ING economist Carsten Brzeski. He cautioned that the trend would likely persist in the coming months, with 15 percent tariffs on most European goods still in place and uncertainty over whether the current 27.5 percent duty on automobiles would be reduced.
With around 10 percent of German exports destined for the US, analysts warn that the impact of trade measures could further constrain growth in the third quarter. Annual GDP growth stood at 0.2 percent in the second quarter, down slightly from 0.3 percent in the first quarter, underscoring the fragile state of the economy.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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