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ECB Warns of Rising Trade Barriers and Policy Uncertainty Impacting Eurozone Growth

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised concerns over rising trade frictions, regulatory barriers, and global demand slowdown, warning that these factors could weigh on eurozone growth. In its latest Economic Bulletin, released on Thursday, the ECB also highlighted uncertainty over U.S. trade policy as a key risk to economic stability.

Trade Risks and U.S. Policy Shifts

The ECB reported that global trade momentum weakened at the end of 2024, with growth moderating from 1.5% in previous quarters to 0.7% in the final quarter of the year and early 2025. While strong U.S. imports temporarily supported European exports, the ECB noted that policy uncertainty under the new U.S. administration might be prompting companies to frontload imports in anticipation of potential tariffs or trade restrictions.

“Greater friction in global trade could weigh on euro area growth by dampening exports and weakening the global economy,” the ECB stated.

The bulletin pointed to weak manufacturing export orders in December 2024, signaling continued fragility in the sector. While early 2025 may still benefit from businesses rushing orders ahead of possible trade restrictions, the ECB warned that new tariffs and policy shifts could create headwinds later in the year.

Eurozone Growth Struggles Amid Weak Business Confidence

Despite sustained export activity, the eurozone economy remains sluggish, with GDP growth of just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The services sector provided some support, but industrial production and business investment remained weak.

Business and consumer confidence levels have also declined, raising concerns about slower-than-expected recovery. The ECB noted that geopolitical risks, high borrowing costs, and trade uncertainty could delay stronger economic momentum.

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“Lower confidence could prevent consumption and investment from recovering as fast as expected,” the ECB warned.

Inflation Easing, But No Commitment to Rate Cuts

Inflation in the euro area has moderated but remains above the ECB’s 2% target. In January 2025, headline inflation stood at 2.8%, while core inflation—which excludes energy and food—was at 2.9%. The ECB pointed to strong wage growth as a major contributor to persistent services inflation, indicating that underlying price pressures have not fully subsided.

Despite progress, the Governing Council reaffirmed its data-dependent approach, stating that there is no pre-commitment to rate cuts. Decisions on monetary policy will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by economic data.

Long-Term Competitiveness Challenges

Beyond immediate risks, the ECB bulletin emphasized structural challenges affecting Europe’s economic competitiveness. The report cited findings from former ECB President Mario Draghi and ex-Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, who both called for urgent reforms to improve the region’s economic resilience.

The ECB pointed out that European firms face greater regulatory burdens and financial constraints compared to their U.S. counterparts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that overall trade costs within Europe are equivalent to an ad valorem tariff of 44% for manufacturing, compared to just 15% in the U.S.

The bulletin endorsed the European Commission’s Competitiveness Compass, urging policymakers to take concrete steps to boost investment, streamline regulations, and enhance the Single Market. It also highlighted that Europe’s young, high-growth firms are scaling up slower than in the U.S., due in part to fragmented financial and regulatory frameworks.

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Outlook

As the eurozone navigates trade tensions, economic uncertainty, and inflation concerns, the ECB’s latest bulletin reinforces the need for vigilance in policymaking. With monetary easing still uncertain and global trade dynamics shifting, Europe’s ability to adapt will be crucial in maintaining economic stability and growth in 2025.

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Fitch Cuts France’s Debt Outlook to Negative Amid Budget Deadlock and Weak Growth

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Credit rating agency Fitch has revised France’s sovereign debt outlook from stable to negative while maintaining its rating at A+, citing weaker economic growth, rising borrowing costs and concerns over the country’s ability to reduce its public deficit.

The decision increases pressure on the French government to secure approval for its 2027 budget by the end of the year, as political divisions and an approaching presidential election complicate efforts to restore public finances.

Fitch’s announcement on Friday followed figures from the national statistics institute Insee showing that France’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026. The economy had stagnated in the second quarter after shrinking by 0.2% in the first three months of the year.

The agency pointed to persistent political fragmentation and a difficult social climate, including mass protests, as factors weakening confidence in the government’s ability to deliver lasting fiscal improvements.

Economy and Finance Minister Roland Lescure said he took note of Fitch’s decision, describing the adoption of a responsible budget before the end of the year as an absolute necessity.

The government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 5% of gross domestic product, while maintaining a path towards fiscal consolidation. Lescure said a clear budget was needed to give businesses and investors greater certainty in an uncertain international environment.

Earlier on Friday, he described the French economy as being at a standstill and warned that the country could face serious difficulties if the proposed recovery budget was not adopted. He repeated that the deficit needed to be brought down to 5% or less.

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However, securing parliamentary approval remains uncertain because President Emmanuel Macron’s government lacks a majority in the National Assembly. The approaching 2027 presidential election is also adding to political tensions.

Fitch expects the budget to be adopted despite the parliamentary deadlock, pointing to constitutional procedures available to the government. The agency said political debates ahead of the election had done little to strengthen its confidence in France’s ability to achieve a lasting reduction in the deficit and stabilise public debt.

One option available to the government is Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which allows legislation to pass without a parliamentary vote unless lawmakers approve a motion of no confidence.

The government could also consider adopting the budget through ordinances, although this procedure has never been used to pass a national budget since the Fifth Republic was established in 1958.

Jérôme Mathis, an economics professor at Paris-Dauphine University, told Euronews that using ordinances could reduce uncertainty in the short term. However, he warned that such a move would not necessarily restore France’s long-term fiscal credibility.

The negative outlook signals increased concern over France’s financial position, although its A+ rating remains unchanged. The government’s ability to pass the 2027 budget and demonstrate credible deficit-reduction measures will be central to restoring confidence.

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Uzbekistan Launches Apple Pay and Google Pay Following Financial Sector Reforms

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Uzbekistan has introduced Apple Pay and Google Pay, opening access to two major international digital payment platforms as the country moves to modernise its financial services sector.

The rollout follows regulatory changes to personal data laws and discussions between Uzbek officials and technology companies. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has also confirmed that work is underway to extend the services to cards issued through domestic payment networks Uzcard and HUMO, although no launch date has been announced.

Saida Mirziyoyeva, head of the Presidential Administration, announced the availability of the services for locally issued cards on October 27. She had met Google Vice President Karan Bhatia in New York a month earlier to discuss technological cooperation and the conditions needed for international payment providers to operate in the country.

Banks included in the rollout

Before the launch, customers in Uzbekistan could use domestic mobile and contactless payment services, including HUMO Pay and UZCARD PAY, as well as QR code systems.

The introduction of Apple Pay and Google Pay gives eligible cardholders access to international platforms for mobile payments.

Apple Pay initially supports Visa and Mastercard cards issued by eight local banks and financial institutions: Uzum Bank, Orient Finans Bank, the National Bank of Uzbekistan, Kapitalbank, Hamkorbank, Ipak Yuli Bank, TBC Bank and Octobank. Uzum Bank and Hamkorbank currently support Visa cards only.

Google Pay is available for eligible cards from nine banks: AVO Bank, Octobank, Uzum Bank, TBC Bank, Aloqabank, Kapitalbank, Ipak Yuli Bank, the National Bank of Uzbekistan and Orient Finans Bank.

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Customers have been advised to contact their banks to confirm which cards can be added to the services.

The Central Bank told Euronews that both platforms protect customers’ card information during transactions. Cashback offers and other benefits will depend on the conditions set by individual banks.

Changes to data protection rules

The launch follows amendments to Uzbekistan’s personal data legislation in March 2026, which eased restrictions on the processing and storage of certain types of personal information outside the country.

During her September meeting with Google’s Bhatia, Mirziyoyeva linked the regulatory changes to the arrival of international payment systems, saying they were creating wider opportunities for their use in Uzbekistan.

The discussions also covered cooperation in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity training and support for the country’s technology industry.

The development forms part of Uzbekistan’s broader efforts to strengthen its financial technology sector. In September, the Central Bank approved a National Fintech Strategy covering the 2026-2030 period.

The strategy aims to attract investment, expand cross-border payments, introduce Open Banking and improve connections between financial systems.

The planned inclusion of Uzcard and HUMO would extend access to the international payment platforms beyond customers using Visa and Mastercard, bringing more locally issued cards into the expanding digital payments market.

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AstraZeneca Third-Quarter Profit Jumps 23% as Drugmaker Plans $1.5 Billion in Annual Savings

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AstraZeneca reported a 23 per cent increase in third-quarter net profit, supported by strong sales of its cancer medicines, as the British pharmaceutical company announced plans to save $1.5 billion annuAstraZeneca Third-Quarter Profit Jumps 23% as Drugmaker Plans $1.5 Billion in Annual Savings

ally and reinvest the funds in developing new treatments.

The company said on Friday that profit after tax reached $3.12 billion for the July to September period, compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The increase marked a stronger performance than the previous quarter, when net profit rose just over 2 per cent.

Revenue increased 7 per cent to $16.2 billion, while core earnings per share rose 17 per cent to $2.79. The earnings figure excludes certain items, including restructuring costs and the amortisation of acquired medicines.

Oncology remained AstraZeneca’s largest business, accounting for 48 per cent of total revenue. Sales in the division increased 17 per cent to $7.8 billion, supported by demand for lung cancer treatment Tagrisso and immunotherapy Imfinzi.

The company’s new cost-saving programme, named Reshaping for Sustainable Growth, is expected to generate $1.5 billion in annual savings. AstraZeneca said the funds would mainly support its research and development pipeline, which includes more than 180 projects.

The restructuring is expected to involve one-off charges of up to $2 billion and is scheduled to be largely completed by the end of 2029. The company did not announce any job cuts, although the changes could affect its workforce as resources are redirected across the business.

Chief Executive Pascal Soriot said AstraZeneca remained on course to achieve its long-term growth ambitions, pointing to late-stage drug candidates and the expansion of new technologies.

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Pressure from generic medicines and China

The company’s growth came despite declining sales of some established medicines. Revenue from Farxiga, used to treat diabetes, heart and kidney disease, fell 25 per cent to $1.6 billion after generic alternatives entered the US market. Blood thinner Brilinta has also faced competition following the loss of patent protection.

AstraZeneca is also dealing with China’s volume-based procurement system, under which state purchasing programmes secure large orders from pharmaceutical companies in exchange for lower prices.

The drugmaker maintained its 2026 financial outlook, forecasting revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits and an increase in core earnings per share in the low double digits, excluding currency movements.

It also reaffirmed its ambition to generate $80 billion in annual revenue by 2030, compared with nearly $59 billion in 2025. The company expects the US market to account for half of that target.

AstraZeneca has expanded its focus on the US, adding a direct share listing in New York in February, while also pledging to invest $15 billion in China by 2030.

The company said it had recorded 12 positive late-stage clinical trial results so far this year. Its development programme also includes a weight-loss treatment intended to compete with products such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro.

AstraZeneca shares rose more than 4.5 per cent in early trading on Friday following the results.

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