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ECB Warns of Rising Trade Barriers and Policy Uncertainty Impacting Eurozone Growth

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised concerns over rising trade frictions, regulatory barriers, and global demand slowdown, warning that these factors could weigh on eurozone growth. In its latest Economic Bulletin, released on Thursday, the ECB also highlighted uncertainty over U.S. trade policy as a key risk to economic stability.

Trade Risks and U.S. Policy Shifts

The ECB reported that global trade momentum weakened at the end of 2024, with growth moderating from 1.5% in previous quarters to 0.7% in the final quarter of the year and early 2025. While strong U.S. imports temporarily supported European exports, the ECB noted that policy uncertainty under the new U.S. administration might be prompting companies to frontload imports in anticipation of potential tariffs or trade restrictions.

“Greater friction in global trade could weigh on euro area growth by dampening exports and weakening the global economy,” the ECB stated.

The bulletin pointed to weak manufacturing export orders in December 2024, signaling continued fragility in the sector. While early 2025 may still benefit from businesses rushing orders ahead of possible trade restrictions, the ECB warned that new tariffs and policy shifts could create headwinds later in the year.

Eurozone Growth Struggles Amid Weak Business Confidence

Despite sustained export activity, the eurozone economy remains sluggish, with GDP growth of just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The services sector provided some support, but industrial production and business investment remained weak.

Business and consumer confidence levels have also declined, raising concerns about slower-than-expected recovery. The ECB noted that geopolitical risks, high borrowing costs, and trade uncertainty could delay stronger economic momentum.

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“Lower confidence could prevent consumption and investment from recovering as fast as expected,” the ECB warned.

Inflation Easing, But No Commitment to Rate Cuts

Inflation in the euro area has moderated but remains above the ECB’s 2% target. In January 2025, headline inflation stood at 2.8%, while core inflation—which excludes energy and food—was at 2.9%. The ECB pointed to strong wage growth as a major contributor to persistent services inflation, indicating that underlying price pressures have not fully subsided.

Despite progress, the Governing Council reaffirmed its data-dependent approach, stating that there is no pre-commitment to rate cuts. Decisions on monetary policy will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by economic data.

Long-Term Competitiveness Challenges

Beyond immediate risks, the ECB bulletin emphasized structural challenges affecting Europe’s economic competitiveness. The report cited findings from former ECB President Mario Draghi and ex-Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, who both called for urgent reforms to improve the region’s economic resilience.

The ECB pointed out that European firms face greater regulatory burdens and financial constraints compared to their U.S. counterparts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that overall trade costs within Europe are equivalent to an ad valorem tariff of 44% for manufacturing, compared to just 15% in the U.S.

The bulletin endorsed the European Commission’s Competitiveness Compass, urging policymakers to take concrete steps to boost investment, streamline regulations, and enhance the Single Market. It also highlighted that Europe’s young, high-growth firms are scaling up slower than in the U.S., due in part to fragmented financial and regulatory frameworks.

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Outlook

As the eurozone navigates trade tensions, economic uncertainty, and inflation concerns, the ECB’s latest bulletin reinforces the need for vigilance in policymaking. With monetary easing still uncertain and global trade dynamics shifting, Europe’s ability to adapt will be crucial in maintaining economic stability and growth in 2025.

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Shein Shares Slide on Hong Kong Debut as Tariffs Hit Fast-Fashion Business

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Shein shares fell sharply on their Hong Kong trading debut on Tuesday, dropping as much as 10% before recovering some of the losses, as the fast-fashion company faces rising tariffs and shipping costs that have put pressure on its profits.

The listing marks the end of a lengthy effort by Shein to enter public markets. The company had previously considered listings in New York and London but faced regulatory scrutiny over its Chinese supply chain and business practices. It eventually turned to Hong Kong for its initial public offering.

Shein priced its shares at HK$48.56 each and raised about $1.7 billion (€1.46 billion), making the offering one of Hong Kong’s largest share sales of the year. The company opened its IPO for investors on August 24 before setting the final share price on August 31. Trading began on Tuesday after the exchange completed its approval process.

Shares initially dropped below HK$44 before narrowing their losses.

“Shein’s Hong Kong listing marks a new starting point,” Chief Financial Officer Leigh Gui said during the company’s listing ceremony.

The company has built its global business around producing inexpensive clothing quickly and shipping orders from China to customers in Western markets. That model is now facing higher costs as the US and European Union reduce or end tariff exemptions for low-value parcels from China.

Shein’s profits have been hit by the changing trade environment. The company reported a $99 million (€85 million) loss in the first quarter of the year, compared with a profit of $395 million (€340 million) a year earlier.

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Higher shipping expenses have added to the pressure, making it harder for the company to maintain its low-price strategy. Tariff costs have also forced Shein to increase prices, potentially weakening one of its biggest attractions to consumers.

Shein was founded in China in 2012 and later moved its corporate headquarters to Singapore in 2021. Despite that move, its manufacturing network remains closely connected to Guangdong province, where the company developed its small-batch production system.

Founder Sky Xu has described Guangdong as the company’s roots and the starting point of its growth.

The company has also faced regulatory challenges in Europe. In February, the EU opened an investigation into Shein over concerns involving allegedly illegal products, including accusations related to child sexual abuse material.

Shein’s Hong Kong debut values the company at roughly $27 billion (€23.2 billion), far below its peak private-market valuation.

The listing nevertheless gives Hong Kong’s stock market a major boost. The exchange has attracted more than $40 billion (€34.4 billion) through IPOs so far this year, as companies continue to seek access to international investors through the city’s financial markets.

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Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 3.3% as Energy Costs Surge

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Eurozone inflation rose sharply in August, reaching 3.3 percent as energy prices climbed at their fastest pace in months amid higher oil and gas costs and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The annual inflation rate increased from 2.9 percent in July, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office. The rise puts inflation well above the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target and could strengthen expectations of another interest rate increase.

Energy prices were the main driver behind the acceleration. They rose 14.3 percent in the year to August, up from an annual increase of 10.3 percent in July. On a monthly basis, energy prices increased 2.9 percent, contributing significantly to the overall rise in consumer prices.

Services inflation, which is closely monitored by the ECB because it tends to be more persistent, eased to 3 percent in August from 3.3 percent in July.

Core inflation also slowed slightly. The measure, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, fell from 2.5 percent to 2.4 percent. Food, alcohol and tobacco prices increased 1.2 percent from a year earlier, unchanged from July.

The figures indicate that higher energy costs have not yet translated into a broad increase in underlying price pressures. However, economists expect elevated gas and food prices to continue affecting inflation in the months ahead.

Leo Barincou, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said the increase was driven by a rebound in fuel prices following the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He said underlying price pressures remained contained because services inflation had eased, but inflation was likely to stay above the ECB’s target into next year.

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Inflation varied considerably across the eurozone. Lithuania recorded the highest rate among countries included in the flash estimate, at 5.8 percent, while Estonia had the lowest at 1.3 percent.

Among the bloc’s largest economies, inflation stood at 2.7 percent in France and 2.9 percent in Germany, both below the eurozone average. France nevertheless saw a notable increase from 2.4 percent in July. Spain recorded inflation of 4.5 percent, while Italy reached 3.2 percent.

Markets are expecting the ECB to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at its September 10 meeting as policymakers respond to renewed price pressures.

Barincou said inflation was accelerating and the ECB was highly likely to raise rates next week, but warned against assuming that another increase would immediately follow, given that underlying inflation pressures remain relatively contained.

The latest figures leave policymakers facing a difficult balance between controlling inflation and avoiding excessive pressure on economic activity.

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White House Details Major Venezuela Oil Deal as US Secures Stake in Reserves

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The White House has released details of a major agreement involving Venezuela’s oil industry, identifying the private company at the centre of the deal and outlining Washington’s financial and operational interests in more than 65 billion barrels of crude reserves.

The Trump administration described the arrangement as the largest oil deal in history. A fact sheet released Monday night named North American Blue Energy Partners, or NABEP, as the operator and provided details of the ownership structure and commitments involved.

Venezuela’s interim authorities have granted NABEP 100-year concessions covering 17 oil fields. The agreement was signed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.

The reserves covered by the agreement are significantly larger than America’s domestic oil reserves. The 65 billion barrels under the concessions compare with about 46 billion barrels across US territory.

Speaking in the Oval Office on Monday, President Donald Trump described the Venezuelan reserves as an enormous resource that had remained unused. He said the US would take the oil out and again claimed major American oil companies were interested in participating.

“We have Exxon going in, we have Chevron going in, we have our big oil companies going in,” Trump said.

Under the agreement, NABEP will provide the US Department of War’s Office of Strategic Capital with a 35 percent equity stake in its parent company. The White House said the stake could eventually be worth hundreds of billions of dollars without requiring money from US taxpayers.

The US State Department will also have the right to purchase 20 percent of production from all current and future NABEP fields at production cost. The oil is intended in part to replenish the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Washington will also have a right of first refusal on the remaining 80 percent of production.

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The agreement gives the US a veto over board appointments, while a majority of directors must be US citizens. The contracts will also operate under US law and be subject to US courts.

NABEP has committed to investing as much as $100 billion in Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and is expected to pay about $200 billion in royalties and taxes over 25 years.

Many of the fields involved were previously operated by Russian or Chinese companies, a development the White House has presented as a renewed assertion of US influence in the region.

Questions remain over the deal, particularly among major oil companies. NABEP is controlled by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, who has faced investigations by US and European authorities over previous dealings with Venezuela’s government. He has never been charged and denies wrongdoing.

ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which left Venezuela after assets were nationalised in 2007, have continued to call for strong legal protections before returning.

US lawmakers have also requested more information about the agreement, which was negotiated without congressional involvement.

Additional energy contracts are expected to be signed this week, potentially providing a clearer indication of whether major international oil companies are prepared to join the plan.

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