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Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds Amid Violations
A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered on November 27, has held for over a month despite repeated violations and slow progress on its terms. Analysts suggest the truce is likely to persist, offering relief to thousands displaced by the conflict, even as challenges remain ahead of the January deadline.
The agreement required Hezbollah to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw from the region, transferring control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers within 60 days. While Hezbollah has largely halted rocket attacks, Israel has withdrawn from only two of approximately 60 towns it occupies in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces continue targeted strikes, citing Hezbollah’s alleged attempts to move weapons and prepare rocket launches.
Ceasefire Implementation and Violations
Both sides have accused the other of violating the truce. Lebanon filed a complaint with the UN Security Council, reporting 816 Israeli attacks between November 27 and December 22. Meanwhile, Israel alleges Hezbollah has committed hundreds of violations, including moving ammunition and launching rockets.
The ambiguity in the ceasefire terms has contributed to its durability, according to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The agreement’s flexibility allows it to adapt to changing circumstances,” he noted.
Challenges in Withdrawal
Israel’s withdrawal has been slower than expected, with military officials citing the lack of sufficient Lebanese forces to take over. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is awaiting Israel’s withdrawal before deploying troops. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli spokesperson, emphasized security concerns as the priority.
The 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal is not seen as rigid. Experts, including Harel Chorev of Tel Aviv University, suggest Lebanon will need to mobilize significantly more troops before a full transfer can occur.
Hezbollah’s Position and Future Risks
Weakened by 14 months of conflict and the loss of key supply routes following the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah appears reluctant to resume hostilities. Its Secretary General, Naim Kassem, recently stated the group is refraining from action to allow the Lebanese state to enforce the agreement.
Despite this, former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni warned that if Israeli forces remain beyond the deadline, guerrilla-style attacks by Hezbollah or other groups could occur. Even if Israel withdraws ground troops, sporadic airstrikes may continue, similar to its operations in Syria.
As the ceasefire approaches its January deadline, its durability will depend on the ability of both sides to navigate the complex terms of the agreement and avoid further escalation.
News
US Conducts Strike on Alleged Drug-Smuggling Facility, Marks Escalation in Operations
US President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States conducted a strike on a shore facility used for loading boats with drugs, marking an escalation beyond previous operations targeting vessels in international waters. The president declined to specify the location or which agency carried out the strike.
“There was a major explosion in the dock area where they load the boats up with drugs,” Trump said while meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida. “They load the boats up with drugs, so we hit all the boats and now we hit the area. It’s the implementation area. There’s where they implement. And that is no longer around.”
Trump offered few details about the strike, including whether it was conducted by the US military or the CIA. “I know exactly who it was, but I don’t want to say who it was. But you know it was along the shore,” he added.
The operation represents a shift in Trump administration tactics, which have previously focused on striking suspected drug-smuggling boats in international waters of the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. According to administration figures, at least 107 people have been killed across 30 strikes since early September. On Monday, the US conducted another strike against an alleged narcoboat in the eastern Pacific, resulting in two fatalities.
Trump initially referenced the strike during a call with WABC radio host John Catsimatidis on Friday. “I don’t know if you read or saw, they have a big plant or a big facility where they send the, you know, where the ships come from,” he said. “Two nights ago, we knocked that out. So, we hit them very hard.”
Unlike previous maritime operations, which were often announced by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth or military social media accounts, no formal announcement was made regarding the facility strike. The Pentagon referred questions to the White House, which did not immediately provide additional information. Venezuela’s government also declined to comment.
Trump has long indicated that US operations could move beyond boat strikes to land-based missions in South America, including Venezuela. Recent weeks have seen the deployment of US warships to the region, increased military presence, and the seizure of two oil tankers, with a third vessel pursued. The administration has characterized the campaign as part of an “armed conflict” against drug cartels to stop narcotics flowing into the United States.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has dismissed the US actions, insisting that the real aim of American operations is to pressure him from office rather than target drug trafficking.
The facility strike signals a new phase in US operations in the region, demonstrating a willingness to extend military actions onto land, raising questions about potential further escalation in South America.
News
One Dead, Three Missing After Migrant Boat Sinks Off Samos
One person has died and three remain missing after a migrant boat sank near the Greek island of Samos early Monday, Greek coast guard authorities reported. Twenty-six migrants reached the shore in the Petalides area and alerted authorities that others were still at sea.
The incident occurred during the early morning hours, prompting an immediate search and rescue operation. Coast guard vessels, a helicopter, a private boat, and ground teams joined the efforts. During the operation, the body of a woman was recovered, while crews continued searching for the three missing migrants. The nationalities of those involved have not been disclosed.
Greece has served as a major entry point for migrants and refugees into the European Union since 2015. Over one million arrivals have been recorded through Greek territory, though hundreds have died attempting the often perilous sea crossing.
Data from Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, shows that irregular migration flows through the eastern Mediterranean fell by 30 percent in the first 11 months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. Around 46,200 migrants arrived in Greek waters this year. However, Frontex noted a sharp increase in activity along the Libya-Crete route, with detections rising by 272 percent year-on-year.
The sinking off Samos is part of a series of recent migrant tragedies in Greek waters. On 6 December, Greek authorities recovered 17 bodies and rescued two migrants from a vessel off Crete. Two days later, a 12-year-old boy died after being struck by a boat propeller when smugglers forced migrants to jump from a speedboat near Samos.
A week later, another vessel carrying 31 migrants crashed into rocks off Samos. Twenty-eight people were rescued, while three remained unaccounted for.
The Eastern Mediterranean continues to be a dangerous route for migrants seeking entry into Europe. Authorities have repeatedly warned of the risks posed by overcrowded and unseaworthy vessels operated by smugglers. Local coast guard officials have emphasized the need for vigilance, particularly in areas near islands like Samos and Crete, which lie close to key migrant corridors from Turkey and Libya.
Search and rescue teams remain on alert, patrolling the waters around Samos to locate the three missing migrants and prevent further casualties.
News
Flood Alert Issued in Elbląg as River Levels Surge
Polish authorities issued a flood alert in the northeastern city of Elbląg on Saturday night after water levels in the Elbląg River surpassed the warning threshold of 590 centimetres, Mayor Michał Missan said. The rise was driven by strong northwesterly winds that pushed water from the Vistula Lagoon upstream, creating a backwater effect that increased the risk of flooding along the river.
Emergency services responded by deploying flood barriers in vulnerable areas, while hydrological gauges throughout the region continued to register levels above the warning mark. Mayor Missan said that all relevant services remained on standby and that authorities were closely monitoring the situation. Residents were urged via social media to exercise caution, though no evacuation orders were issued.
The Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management also issued warnings for strong winds across the region, with icy conditions expected to persist and potentially complicate emergency operations. Authorities cautioned that the situation could change rapidly, and further interventions may become necessary if weather conditions worsen.
Elbląg sits along the eponymous river between Druzno Lake and the Vistula Lagoon and is part of Żuławy Wiślane, a Vistula River delta plain. Large sections of the area are below sea level, making it particularly vulnerable to flooding. Local officials have noted that the combination of wind-driven water movement and the city’s low-lying geography can quickly elevate flood risks.
Despite the heightened alert, no major flooding was reported overnight, and residents largely remained in their homes. Authorities emphasized that continuous monitoring and the deployment of temporary barriers were crucial to managing the rising waters and preventing damage to infrastructure.
Mayor Missan said the city’s preparedness measures were in place to respond quickly to any escalation, and he urged citizens to stay informed through official channels. Local emergency services maintained a visible presence throughout the night, checking critical points along the river and readying additional resources if needed.
The situation highlights the challenges faced by cities like Elbląg, where riverine and lagoon systems intersect, and weather patterns can rapidly influence water levels. Officials said the alert would remain in effect as long as the river levels remained high and wind conditions persisted.
Residents were reminded to avoid walking or driving near the riverbanks and to follow any guidance from municipal authorities. Authorities confirmed that contingency plans for potential evacuations were prepared, but at present, no large-scale displacement was necessary.
The flood alert serves as a precautionary measure aimed at safeguarding lives and property in an area historically prone to water-related hazards.
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