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Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds Amid Violations
A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered on November 27, has held for over a month despite repeated violations and slow progress on its terms. Analysts suggest the truce is likely to persist, offering relief to thousands displaced by the conflict, even as challenges remain ahead of the January deadline.
The agreement required Hezbollah to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw from the region, transferring control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers within 60 days. While Hezbollah has largely halted rocket attacks, Israel has withdrawn from only two of approximately 60 towns it occupies in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces continue targeted strikes, citing Hezbollah’s alleged attempts to move weapons and prepare rocket launches.
Ceasefire Implementation and Violations
Both sides have accused the other of violating the truce. Lebanon filed a complaint with the UN Security Council, reporting 816 Israeli attacks between November 27 and December 22. Meanwhile, Israel alleges Hezbollah has committed hundreds of violations, including moving ammunition and launching rockets.
The ambiguity in the ceasefire terms has contributed to its durability, according to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The agreement’s flexibility allows it to adapt to changing circumstances,” he noted.
Challenges in Withdrawal
Israel’s withdrawal has been slower than expected, with military officials citing the lack of sufficient Lebanese forces to take over. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is awaiting Israel’s withdrawal before deploying troops. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli spokesperson, emphasized security concerns as the priority.
The 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal is not seen as rigid. Experts, including Harel Chorev of Tel Aviv University, suggest Lebanon will need to mobilize significantly more troops before a full transfer can occur.
Hezbollah’s Position and Future Risks
Weakened by 14 months of conflict and the loss of key supply routes following the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah appears reluctant to resume hostilities. Its Secretary General, Naim Kassem, recently stated the group is refraining from action to allow the Lebanese state to enforce the agreement.
Despite this, former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni warned that if Israeli forces remain beyond the deadline, guerrilla-style attacks by Hezbollah or other groups could occur. Even if Israel withdraws ground troops, sporadic airstrikes may continue, similar to its operations in Syria.
As the ceasefire approaches its January deadline, its durability will depend on the ability of both sides to navigate the complex terms of the agreement and avoid further escalation.
News
Investigation Underway After Goa Nightclub Fire Kills at Least 25
Authorities in the Indian state of Goa have opened an investigation into a nightclub fire that killed at least 25 people, including several tourists, in one of the region’s most popular party districts. Six others were injured in the blaze, which broke out shortly after midnight in Arpora, a nightlife hub about 25 kilometres from the state capital, Panaji.
Goa Chief Minister Pramod Sawant confirmed the death toll in a statement posted on X, saying the victims included many of the club’s kitchen staff and a small number of visiting tourists. He added that all the injured were in stable condition and receiving medical treatment. Rescue teams recovered all bodies from the site.
Early reports from local police, cited by the Press Trust of India, indicated that a gas cylinder explosion triggered the fire. Witnesses, however, told the agency that the blaze appeared to start on the club’s first floor, where nearly 100 tourists were dancing at the time. As smoke and flames swept through the building, many people ran toward the lower floor, where they became trapped along with staff members.
Sawant said a formal inquiry would determine the exact cause and whether the club complied with fire safety regulations. He pledged strict action against anyone found responsible, writing on X that any negligence uncovered by investigators would be “dealt with firmly”.
Eyewitnesses described scenes of panic as patrons attempted to flee the burning building. “We rushed out of the club only to see that the entire structure was up in flames,” said Fatima Shaikh, who was inside when the fire began.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered condolences in a message on X, calling the incident “deeply saddening” and wishing the injured a swift recovery.
Local media reported that the club’s location along the Arpora River backwaters posed challenges for emergency crews. A narrow approach road forced fire engines to park about 400 metres from the entrance, slowing their response. Reports also revealed that the building had previously received a demolition notice after officials found it lacked a construction permit. That order was later withdrawn by senior state authorities, according to Arpora councillor Roshan Redkar.
Incidents involving gas cylinders and electrical faults are not unusual in India and often lead to heavy casualties, prompting renewed calls for stronger enforcement of safety standards. Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi criticised the tragedy as a “criminal failure of safety and governance” and urged a transparent investigation to establish accountability and prevent future disasters.
The probe into the fire is expected to assess structural safety, emergency exits and compliance with existing regulations as authorities work to piece together how the late-night gathering turned into one of the deadliest incidents in the state in recent years.
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