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Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds Amid Violations
A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered on November 27, has held for over a month despite repeated violations and slow progress on its terms. Analysts suggest the truce is likely to persist, offering relief to thousands displaced by the conflict, even as challenges remain ahead of the January deadline.
The agreement required Hezbollah to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw from the region, transferring control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers within 60 days. While Hezbollah has largely halted rocket attacks, Israel has withdrawn from only two of approximately 60 towns it occupies in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces continue targeted strikes, citing Hezbollah’s alleged attempts to move weapons and prepare rocket launches.
Ceasefire Implementation and Violations
Both sides have accused the other of violating the truce. Lebanon filed a complaint with the UN Security Council, reporting 816 Israeli attacks between November 27 and December 22. Meanwhile, Israel alleges Hezbollah has committed hundreds of violations, including moving ammunition and launching rockets.
The ambiguity in the ceasefire terms has contributed to its durability, according to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The agreement’s flexibility allows it to adapt to changing circumstances,” he noted.
Challenges in Withdrawal
Israel’s withdrawal has been slower than expected, with military officials citing the lack of sufficient Lebanese forces to take over. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is awaiting Israel’s withdrawal before deploying troops. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli spokesperson, emphasized security concerns as the priority.
The 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal is not seen as rigid. Experts, including Harel Chorev of Tel Aviv University, suggest Lebanon will need to mobilize significantly more troops before a full transfer can occur.
Hezbollah’s Position and Future Risks
Weakened by 14 months of conflict and the loss of key supply routes following the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah appears reluctant to resume hostilities. Its Secretary General, Naim Kassem, recently stated the group is refraining from action to allow the Lebanese state to enforce the agreement.
Despite this, former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni warned that if Israeli forces remain beyond the deadline, guerrilla-style attacks by Hezbollah or other groups could occur. Even if Israel withdraws ground troops, sporadic airstrikes may continue, similar to its operations in Syria.
As the ceasefire approaches its January deadline, its durability will depend on the ability of both sides to navigate the complex terms of the agreement and avoid further escalation.
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Britain and Norway Step Up Naval Patrols to Protect Undersea Infrastructure from Russia
Britain and Norway have launched new joint naval patrols aimed at protecting undersea cables from Russia, with a combined fleet of at least 13 warships safeguarding critical infrastructure in the North Atlantic, officials said. The announcement follows discussions in December between UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on defense cooperation.
British Defence Secretary John Healey said on Thursday that the operation was designed to deter Russian submarines suspected of “malign activity” near undersea infrastructure north of the UK. A frigate, aircraft, and hundreds of personnel monitored a Russian attack submarine and two spy vessels during an operation lasting more than a month. Healey said the Russian ships eventually left the area.
His message to Moscow was clear: “We see your activity over our cables and our pipelines, and you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences.” Healey emphasized that while global attention is focused on conflicts in the Middle East, Russia remains the main threat to the UK and its allies.
British officials have highlighted the overlap between Russia’s support for Iran and its ongoing war in Ukraine. Tehran has provided Moscow with Shahed drones, which are now also manufactured in Russia under the designation Geran. Healey said, “Putin would want us to be distracted by the Middle East. We will not take our eyes off Putin.”
The UK has also prepared to seize ships suspected of being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a flotilla of old oil tankers of unclear ownership designed to bypass international sanctions imposed over Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Previously, the UK only assisted France and the US in monitoring such vessels. Healey said, “We are ready to take action” against these ships.
Norwegian Defence Minister Tore O. Sandvik, who signed the joint naval agreement with Healey, said the patrols allow both countries to “defend themselves together.” The deployment builds on a £10 billion (€11 billion) deal for Norway to purchase at least five British-made frigates, which, together with eight British ships, will operate along NATO’s northern flank.
Russian naval activity near UK waters has reportedly risen by 30 percent over the past two years. NATO officials have also warned that attacks on undersea cables are among the “most active threats” to Western infrastructure. Acting Assistant Secretary General for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber, James Appathurai, said recent incidents in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere reflect Russia’s long-term undersea program, which includes research ships, submarines, unmanned vehicles, divers, and explosives targeting communications and energy pipelines.
The new UK-Norway patrols signal a heightened focus on securing vital maritime infrastructure amid rising geopolitical tensions and increasing Russian naval operations in European waters.
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