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Rising Energy Costs From Iran Conflict Raise Eurozone Inflation Concerns

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Economists say the surge in global energy prices linked to the conflict with Iran could push inflation higher across the eurozone, increasing the possibility that the European Central Bank may be forced to raise interest rates in 2026.

Oil markets experienced one of their sharpest reversals on record this week after comments from Donald Trump suggested the US-led military campaign against Iran might soon wind down. The statement briefly eased fears of a prolonged disruption to energy supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil.

Speaking during a press conference, Trump said the United States and Israel had made rapid progress in military operations against Iran and insisted Washington would act to keep international energy routes open.

“Oil supplies will be dramatically more secure,” Trump said, adding that the US could escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. When asked whether the conflict might end soon, he responded that it could be resolved within days.

Energy markets reacted quickly to the remarks. West Texas Intermediate crude, which had climbed to about $119 per barrel during heightened concerns over potential shipping disruptions, fell to below $90 by the end of the trading session, representing a drop of more than $30 in less than a day.

Despite the dramatic fall in crude prices, economists warn that retail fuel costs in Europe have not yet reflected the change. Fuel prices across several major cities remain elevated, highlighting the delay between movements in wholesale oil markets and prices paid by consumers.

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According to data from fuel tracking platform Fuelo, petrol prices remain high across major European cities. In Milan, unleaded fuel is selling for around €1.89 per litre while diesel has climbed to €2.10. In Paris petrol costs about €1.92 per litre and diesel roughly €2.06. Frankfurt currently records the highest prices among the three, with petrol reaching €2.12 per litre and diesel at €2.19.

Economists say the biggest economic channel through which the conflict affects Europe is energy. Sven Jari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, said most European economies rely heavily on imported oil and gas, making them particularly sensitive to price shocks.

The bank estimates that a 10 percent increase in oil prices typically raises eurozone inflation by around 0.3 percent. Analysts caution that the effect could be stronger if natural gas prices also rise, as gas markets often react differently from oil.

Analysts at Bank of America outlined several potential scenarios depending on how long energy prices remain elevated. In a moderate scenario, crude stabilises near $80 per barrel while European gas prices remain elevated for several months. Under that outcome, eurozone inflation could briefly climb to about 2.5 percent before gradually declining later in the year.

A stronger energy shock would have more serious consequences. Economists warn that inflation could exceed 3 percent during the second quarter while economic growth slows.

Michael Saunders, an adviser at Oxford Economics, said central banks can no longer ignore energy-driven inflation in the way they sometimes did in the past. He argued that policymakers are increasingly concerned that rising energy costs could feed into broader inflation expectations across the economy.

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Financial markets are already adjusting their expectations. Data from prediction platform Polymarket suggests investors now see a significantly higher chance that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates in 2026 if energy prices remain elevated.

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Spain Employment Hits Record as Social Security Enrolment Tops 22 Million

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Spain’s labour market reached a historic milestone in March, with Social Security enrolment surpassing 22 million contributors for the first time, driven by seasonal hiring linked to Easter and continued growth in the services sector.

New data released on Monday showed that the number of contributors, adjusted for seasonal variations, rose to 22,010,532 after 80,274 jobs were added during the month. In average terms, employment increased by 211,510 people, marking the largest rise ever recorded for a March period.

Unadjusted figures also reflected a record level, with more than 21.8 million people registered with Social Security. The government highlighted that the number of contributors has grown by nearly 3.4 million since 2018, pointing to sustained expansion in the labour market.

Officials said the latest gains were supported by increased activity during Easter Week, which traditionally boosts employment in tourism, hospitality and other service-related industries. Growth has also been noted in higher-skilled sectors, including information technology, science and professional services.

The data showed that female employment continues to rise, nearing 10.4 million, while permanent contracts have increased as a share of overall employment. Authorities linked these trends to labour reforms introduced in recent years aimed at improving job stability and workforce participation.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez acknowledged the milestone in a brief social media message before later praising workers in a video statement. He said the achievement reflected the efforts of millions of people contributing to the country’s economic progress.

The labour market report also indicated a modest improvement in unemployment. The number of jobless people fell by 0.9 percent in March to 2.42 million, the lowest level recorded for the month since 2008. Over the past year, unemployment has declined by more than 160,000.

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Second Vice-President and Employment Minister Yolanda Díaz said that both female and youth unemployment have reached historic lows. She attributed the positive results to structural changes in the labour market and policies designed to support job creation and stability.

Economists note that while seasonal factors played a role in the March figures, the broader trend points to continued resilience in Spain’s economy. Strong demand in services and ongoing improvements in employment conditions have helped sustain growth despite external uncertainties.

The latest figures underline the strength of Spain’s recovery in recent years, with employment reaching new highs and unemployment continuing its gradual decline.

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OPEC+ Agrees Modest Output Increase as Hormuz Disruptions Shake Oil Markets

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has agreed to raise crude oil production, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies.

The group announced on Sunday that it will increase output by 206,000 barrels per day in May following a virtual meeting of key producers. The countries involved in the decision include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.

Despite the move, analysts say the increase is unlikely to significantly ease pressure on oil prices. The additional supply represents only a small fraction of the volumes affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has been severely constrained since the conflict began in late February.

In a statement, OPEC+ said the adjustment forms part of a broader plan to unwind voluntary production cuts introduced in recent years. The group added that it remains ready to adjust output depending on market conditions, including the possibility of pausing or reversing earlier decisions if necessary.

Market observers note that even the planned increase may have limited immediate impact, as logistical challenges linked to the strait’s closure continue to restrict exports. Oil shipments from several producing countries remain delayed or rerouted, tightening global supply.

Energy analyst Osama Rizvi said the scale of disruption across the market far outweighs the planned production increase. He pointed to widespread outages affecting energy infrastructure and ongoing difficulties in maintaining normal output levels. According to Rizvi, the additional barrels are unlikely to offset the supply losses caused by the conflict.

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Oil prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks, with benchmark crude nearing $120 per barrel. The surge has pushed up fuel costs globally, adding strain on households and businesses already dealing with inflationary pressures.

Forecasts from major financial institutions suggest prices could rise even further if supply constraints persist. Some projections indicate that crude could approach $150 per barrel if disruptions continue into the coming weeks.

Geopolitical tensions remain a key driver of market uncertainty. US President Donald Trump has issued a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of potential military action against critical infrastructure if the route remains closed.

The standoff has raised concerns about the stability of global energy markets, as the strait typically handles a significant share of the world’s oil exports.

While OPEC+ has signalled its intention to support market stability, the effectiveness of its latest move will depend largely on developments in the region and whether normal shipping operations can resume.

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European Cocoa and Chocolate Prices Surge Ahead of Easter

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Cocoa and chocolate prices in Europe have risen sharply ahead of Easter, outpacing overall inflation and highlighting the fragility of global supply chains. According to Eurostat data, consumer prices for cocoa and powdered chocolate increased by 15.3% annually as of December 2025, while chocolate prices rose 15.6% over the same period. These increases place both items among the top five food and non-alcoholic beverage categories with the highest inflation in the European Union, where overall inflation stood at 2.3%.

Experts attribute the surge to disruptions in the cocoa supply chain, particularly due to adverse weather conditions in Africa. Joël Frei, communication officer at the Swiss Platform for Sustainable Cocoa, said global cocoa production has become increasingly volatile, with the 2023–2024 cocoa year proving particularly difficult. Revised estimates from the International Cocoa Organization indicate that global output fell from 5.016 million tonnes in 2022–2023 to 4.368 million tonnes in 2023–2024, a 12.9% decline. At the same time, the stocks-to-grindings ratio fell from 34.9% to 26.4%, reflecting a tighter market.

“Shocks on the production side have pushed inventories to historically low levels, leaving markets extremely exposed to further disruptions and driving cocoa prices to record highs,” said Emiliano Magrini, economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The impact on consumers has been severe in several countries. Denmark reported the largest annual increase at 30.5%, followed by Lithuania at 30.3%. Austria, Romania, Norway, and Sweden also saw rises above 25%. Among Europe’s largest economies, Germany experienced a 21.4% increase, Italy 20.5%, while France and Spain saw smaller hikes of 14.7% and 12%, respectively. Czechia, Belgium, Serbia, and Portugal recorded relatively minor increases between 1.3% and 3.6%.

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The decline in cocoa output was concentrated in the world’s two largest producers. Côte d’Ivoire saw a drop of roughly 20–25%, while Ghana experienced an even sharper decline. Magrini said the reduction was driven by prolonged dry spells and increased disease pressure, including the cocoa swollen shoot virus. Anna Lea Albright, former fellow at the Harvard Center for the Environment, noted that extreme rainfall during flowering and early pod development also contributed to significant yield losses.

Production has recovered modestly in 2024–2025 and is expected to improve further in the 2025–2026 season. Despite this, the market remains structurally thin and vulnerable, with prices sensitive to any additional shocks from weather, disease, or trade disruptions.

As Easter approaches, consumers across Europe are facing higher chocolate costs, reflecting a combination of tight global supply, climate challenges, and logistical vulnerabilities that continue to affect the cocoa industry.

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