The ongoing conflict involving Iran is sending economic shockwaves across global markets, pushing up energy and fertiliser prices and raising fears of food shortages in vulnerable countries. Economists warn that the disruption is also complicating efforts by central banks to control inflation.
At the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping corridor through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes. The route has effectively been shut since military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran began 11 days ago, triggering widespread concern in global energy markets.
Oil prices have surged sharply since the conflict escalated. Crude traded below $70 per barrel in February but climbed to nearly $120 earlier this week before easing to around $90. The rise in crude prices has pushed gasoline costs higher as well. According to the American Automobile Association, the average price of gasoline in the United States jumped to $3.48 per gallon from just under $3 only a week earlier.
Economists say the impact could be even greater in regions that rely heavily on Middle Eastern energy supplies. Countries in Europe and Asia depend more on imported oil and gas from the Gulf than the United States, making them particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that sustained increases in oil prices could have broader economic consequences. She said every 10 percent rise in oil prices that lasts most of the year could push global inflation up by 0.4 percent while reducing worldwide economic output by up to 0.2 percent.
Economists stress that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is essential to restoring stability. Simon Johnson of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said about 20 million barrels of oil pass through the waterway each day. He noted that global producers have little spare capacity to replace that volume if shipments remain blocked.
Despite the shock, some analysts believe the global economy may still manage to absorb the disruption if the conflict proves short-lived. Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University, said the world economy has previously shown resilience after major shocks such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and sweeping tariff measures introduced in 2025.
The war is already creating uneven economic effects across countries. Major energy importers including Japan, India, China and several European economies face higher costs as oil prices climb. Oil producers outside the conflict zone such as Norway, Russia and Canada could benefit from higher export revenues.
Some nations face particularly severe challenges. Pakistan imports about 40 percent of its energy and relies heavily on liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar, supplies that have been disrupted by the conflict.
The crisis is also affecting global agriculture. Researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute estimate that up to 30 percent of the world’s fertiliser exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions to shipments of products such as urea, ammonia and phosphates are already pushing costs higher for farmers.
Experts warn that higher fertiliser prices may eventually translate into rising food costs worldwide. Low-income countries with fragile agricultural systems are expected to face the greatest risk of shortages if the disruption continues. Central banks are now confronting a difficult choice between raising interest rates to curb inflation or easing policy to support economic growth as the crisis unfolds.