Oil markets experienced a sharp retreat on Monday after US President Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could be short-lived and indicated Washington may ease oil-related sanctions on certain countries to ease pressure on crude prices.
“So in some countries, we’re going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out,” Trump told reporters, without specifying which nations might be affected. The US currently maintains sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Syria, and North Korea.
Trump also confirmed that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the war and other international issues. Following his remarks, oil prices fell more than 9% from recent highs, with Brent crude trading just under $90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $85.40 during European morning trading. Prices had briefly surged to nearly $120 a barrel earlier, their highest level since 2022, amid concerns over the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader.
Investors interpreted the leadership change as a signal that Tehran could adopt a hardline stance, fueling fears of prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies. Trump, however, described the US military intervention as a “short-term excursion” aimed at neutralizing threats in the region. He also warned that any action by Iran to block oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a response from the United States “twenty times harder than they have been hit thus far.”
In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said that the country would “determine when the war ends,” signaling the potential for continued volatility.
The easing in oil prices sparked a rally in global stock markets. European indices climbed sharply, with London’s FTSE 100 up 1.1%, Paris’ CAC 40 rising 1.9%, Frankfurt’s DAX gaining 2%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 and Italy’s FTSE MIB both up 2.5%. The broader Stoxx 600 index increased 1.7%. Asian markets also rebounded after losses on Monday, with Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rising 2.9%, South Korea’s Kospi jumping 5.4%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2.1%, while Shanghai’s Composite index rose 0.6%.
Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said the recovery reflected market relief following Trump’s comments. “Volatility is going to remain with us, but things are certainly looking a lot brighter today,” he said.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point for global energy markets, as roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the narrow waterway daily. Analysts warn that any prolonged closure could send oil prices soaring above $150 per barrel.
Bond yields and currencies reacted to the market shift. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.10% from 4.15%, while gold rose 1.7% to $5,191.8 an ounce. Bitcoin led gains in cryptocurrency markets, increasing 2.6% to $70,863.
Investors are closely monitoring both geopolitical developments and potential US policy changes, as energy markets remain highly sensitive to disruptions in the Middle East.