Business
Oil Prices Plunge Amid US-China Trade Tensions and Rising US Stockpiles
Global oil prices have tumbled to their lowest levels this year as China’s retaliatory tariffs on US crude oil imports and rising US stockpiles stoke concerns about weakening demand.
On Tuesday, China’s State Council Tariff Commission announced a 10% tariff on US crude oil alongside 15% levies on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), effective February 10. The move comes in response to the US government’s latest round of tariffs on Chinese goods, further escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Following the announcement, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 2.3% to $71 per barrel, while Brent crude futures declined 2.09% to $74.61 per barrel, marking their lowest levels since December 31, 2024. Although both benchmarks saw a slight rebound in Thursday’s Asian trading session, prices remain under pressure.
US Stockpile Surge Signals Weakening Demand
Beyond trade tensions, crude markets have been rattled by rising US oil inventories. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude stockpiles surged by 8.66 million barrels in the week ending January 31, far exceeding analyst forecasts of a one million barrel increase. This follows a 3.5 million barrel rise in the previous week, reversing a nine-week streak of inventory declines that had pushed oil prices to a five-month high in mid-January.
Political factors have also played a role in the recent downturn. Last month, US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC to take measures to lower oil prices, while reaffirming plans to expand US oil production. Trump’s latest round of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods has only intensified fears of slowing demand. Additionally, Washington has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on Canadian crude oil, though the decision has been temporarily delayed by 30 days for further negotiations.
Geopolitical Tensions Could Limit Further Declines
Despite the bearish market sentiment, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain a potential upside factor for oil prices. President Trump has proposed taking control of Gaza, a move that could heighten regional instability. Furthermore, he is expected to strengthen US sanctions on Iran, with the goal of driving Tehran’s oil exports to zero.
Iran, which holds 12% of global oil reserves, has seen its crude exports grow since 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Current Iranian supply stands at 1.5 million barrels per day, or 1.4% of global production. However, a report from S&P Global warns that Trump’s return to office and escalating Middle East tensions could disrupt Iran’s oil expansion plans.
In response, Iran has called on OPEC to unite against potential US sanctions. On February 3, OPEC+ reaffirmed its plan to gradually increase supply from April, while removing the EIA from its list of production monitoring sources.
As crude markets navigate an uncertain landscape, investors remain wary of sluggish demand, rising US stockpiles, and geopolitical risks, all of which could drive further volatility in oil prices in the coming weeks.
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