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Goldman Sachs Warns Europe Faces Economic Strain as China’s Export Push Intensifies

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China’s strengthening export momentum is emerging as a significant threat to Europe’s economic outlook, with Goldman Sachs cautioning that major EU economies could face notable GDP losses as Beijing doubles down on an export-led recovery strategy. The investment bank has cut its eurozone growth forecasts, warning that Europe is increasingly exposed to rising global trade competition at a time of limited policy flexibility.

Giovanni Pierdomenico, an economist at Goldman Sachs, said the euro area is “particularly exposed” to the impact of increased Chinese goods supply, which risks widening the region’s growing trade deficit with China and undermining its already weakened competitive position. The bank estimates that stronger Chinese export competition will reduce eurozone GDP by about 0.5% by the end of 2029.

Germany is projected to face the heaviest hit, with real GDP expected to be 0.9% lower over the next four years due to pressure from Chinese exports. Italy is forecast to see a 0.6% impact, while France and Spain are each expected to register declines of around 0.4%.

Goldman analysts point to a sharp shift in global market dynamics: in the past five years, eurozone exporters have lost as much as four percentage points of market share to Chinese firms across major global markets. The bank estimates that for every one-dollar increase in Chinese exports, European exports typically fall between twenty and thirty cents, illustrating the scale of substitution taking place. This trend, analysts say, is steadily eroding Europe’s competitive edge.

European policymakers have announced a series of measures aimed at strengthening strategic resilience, including the Critical Raw Materials Act and the AI Continent Action Plan. But Goldman Sachs remains doubtful that these initiatives will be enough to counter China’s export dominance. Analyst Filippo Taddei notes that the EU’s response is constrained by structural vulnerabilities — particularly its heavy reliance on China for key components and raw materials.

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Goldman warns that while selective action against certain Chinese products is possible, broader restrictions could disrupt supply chains central to Europe’s industrial activity. At the same time, the bank highlights that many EU programmes intended to shore up competitiveness remain underfunded relative to their ambitions.

Defence is the only sector where Europe has committed substantial financial resources, with the Readiness 2030 programme backed by €150 billion in loans under the Security Action for Europe scheme. Even this effort, however, relies on Chinese supplies of rare earth elements essential for advanced military systems.

The bank concludes that without a more unified and assertive industrial strategy, Europe risks losing further ground in global markets it once dominated. Policymakers now face difficult decisions over how to reinforce Europe’s industrial base while managing its dependence on Chinese inputs — and how long the region can rely on fiscal support and consumer strength to cushion its economy against mounting external pressures.

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Mobile Payments Gain Ground Across Europe as Consumers Shift Toward Smart Devices

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Mobile payments are expanding steadily across Europe as consumers rely more on smartphones and wearable devices for everyday transactions, according to new data from the European Central Bank (ECB). The trend reflects a broader shift in how people shop and pay for goods, although adoption levels still vary widely from one country to another.

The ECB’s latest SPACE survey shows that in 2024, mobile apps accounted for 6% of all point-of-sale (POS) payments in the euro area, representing 7% of the total value. Five years earlier, both figures stood at just 1%, marking a significant rise as digital wallets become more common.

The Netherlands stands out as the clear leader, with mobile payments making up 17% of the total value of transactions. Spain follows at 12%, placing it ahead of larger economies such as Germany, France, and Italy.

Mobile payments cover a range of devices — including phones, smartwatches, and fitness bands — and are typically made through digital wallets or dedicated banking apps. Central banks say this category has grown as consumers increasingly view such methods as convenient substitutes for traditional cash or card usage.

Even with the growth of mobile options, day-to-day spending in the euro area remains dominated by in-person transactions. In 2024, 75% of payments were made at POS terminals, while 21% took place online and 4% were person-to-person transfers. By value, 58% of payments were made at POS, 36% online, and 6% via peer-to-peer channels.

Cash still accounts for the largest share of transactions at 52%, though it represents only 39% of the value, reflecting the higher use of notes and coins for small purchases. Cards make up 39% of transactions and 45% of the total value, indicating their use for higher-value payments. Mobile payments remain a smaller but expanding segment at 6% of transactions and 7% of value.

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The Netherlands continues to lead Europe’s digital payment transition. A spokesperson for the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) told Euronews Business that consumers there regard mobile and contactless payments as quick and convenient alternatives. As a result, mobile payments now account for 19% of Dutch POS transactions. Ireland and Finland also report strong adoption, each with a 10% share.

By contrast, Slovenia, Croatia, and Belgium register some of the lowest usage rates, with only 3% of transactions made through smart devices. Among Europe’s largest economies, Spain is the only country exceeding the euro area average at 7%. Germany matches the regional figure, while France and Italy remain below it.

Digital literacy and consumer attitudes toward speed and usability play an important part in whether people adopt mobile payments. Yet concerns about security still deter many. Nearly a third of non-users cite fears of hacking or fraud as their main reason for avoiding mobile wallets, suggesting that trust remains a major factor shaping the pace of change.

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UK Economy Nearly 10% Weaker Than Peers After Years of Brexit-Linked Drag, New Analysis Finds

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A decade after the Brexit referendum, the UK economy has significantly diverged from its pre-2016 path, with a new report showing that prolonged uncertainty and reduced business investment have left the country substantially weaker than comparable advanced nations.

The analysis, published by the Decision Maker Panel at King’s College London, estimates that by early 2025 the UK economy was about 8% smaller than it would have been had it remained in the EU, based on national macroeconomic data. Firm-level data suggests a slightly smaller but still substantial gap of around 6%.

Researchers say the drag did not come from a single shock but from years of hesitation across the business landscape. Political turbulence, shifting trade rules and repeated negotiations led companies to freeze or delay investment, hiring and expansion. Instead of concentrating on new products or growth strategies, managers redirected time and resources toward contingency planning and adjusting to evolving regulations.

“Investment is estimated to have been 12% to 18% lower, employment 3% to 4% lower, and productivity also 3% to 4% lower than it would have been if the UK had not voted to leave the EU,” the report states.

The effects have varied across sectors. Companies most deeply tied into European supply chains — many of them high-productivity exporters — absorbed the hardest impact. Researchers describe the Brexit shift as a rare example of a “reverse trade reform,” noting that barriers were raised rather than dismantled.

While trade volumes did not collapse immediately after the referendum, the study highlights that this was partly because existing EU rules remained in place for several years. The major break came when the Trade and Cooperation Agreement took effect, marking a clear divergence in the UK’s trading conditions.

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As the 2010s gave way to the post-Brexit era, the UK’s economic position slipped against other advanced economies. The report estimates that UK GDP per capita has grown between 6% and 10% less than similar countries, placing the country around the 10th percentile among its international peers.

Researchers also concluded that many early forecasts, although directionally correct, underestimated how persistent uncertainty would be. What policymakers initially viewed as a temporary period of adjustment has become an extended structural shift affecting investment behaviour, productivity performance and confidence.

The findings outline a picture of a country reshaped not by a single political decision but by years of diverted business energy and weakened competitiveness. Almost ten years after the referendum, the report argues, the economic effects continue to ripple through the UK, with little indication that the long-term drag has yet begun to ease.

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Bitcoin Slumps Below €75,000 as Global Risk-off Sentiment Deepens and Crypto Market Extends Weeks-long Decline

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Bitcoin tumbled on Monday, sliding below €75,000 as the cryptocurrency market continued the steep losses that have followed its record-breaking peak in early October. The drop of more than 5% during European trading pushed the digital asset to levels not seen since late summer, adding to growing concern among traders already bracing for another volatile month.

After hitting an all-time high of roughly €110,000 in October, Bitcoin’s value has been in near-continuous retreat. November alone saw the cryptocurrency shed more than 16%, briefly dipping towards €74,000 as large-scale liquidations swept across major exchanges. That trend accelerated at the start of December, with no clear signs of a sustained rebound.

Other leading cryptocurrencies also took a hit on Monday. Ethereum and Solana each fell by over 5%, tracking the downward movement that has dominated the sector since October, when early signs of weakening momentum first appeared.

Although Bitcoin attempted several short-lived recoveries last month, those gains quickly evaporated as traders pulled back from riskier markets. Analysts say the declines reflect a broader shift among investors who have reduced exposure to high-volatility assets, including crypto-linked stocks, amid growing uncertainty in global markets.

Equity markets have also shown similar patterns, with investors moving into more risk-averse positions after weaker economic data and diminishing expectations of early interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Low inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have added to the downward pressure. ETFs, which package assets such as stocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies into a single tradable product, often see broad sell-offs when underlying assets lose value.

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The slump has also been linked to aggressive strategies used by institutional traders, which can amplify market swings during periods of instability. Despite hopes among some investors that Bitcoin would increasingly behave like a safe-haven asset similar to digital gold, analysts note that recent movements resemble those of tech-linked stocks.

The comparison has been reinforced by similar volatility in companies such as Nvidia, the US chipmaker whose rapid rise this year has been accompanied by sharp pullbacks. Market watchers say this pattern reflects the extent to which Bitcoin remains tied to wider sentiment in technology and growth-driven sectors.

With economic signals still mixed and investor appetite for high-risk assets continuing to fade, analysts caution that Bitcoin may face more turbulence in the weeks ahead unless broader market sentiment steadies.

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