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Gold Looks to 2026 After a Record-Breaking Year Marked by Geopolitical Tension and Strong Central Bank Demand

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Gold enters 2026 after one of the strongest years in its modern history, rising more than 60% in 2025 and setting over 50 record highs. The surge placed the metal ahead of all major asset classes and delivered its best performance since 1979. Now, investors are assessing whether gold can extend its momentum over the next year or whether the market is nearing a turning point.

Analysts say the 2025 rally was the product of several overlapping global forces. Persistent geopolitical risks, trade uncertainty, a softening US dollar, and expectations of lower interest rates all helped drive demand. Central banks also played a decisive role by continuing to absorb large volumes of gold, keeping official-sector buying well above pre-pandemic levels.

Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) highlights how these factors contributed to the metal’s rise. Geopolitical tensions alone added roughly 12 percentage points to year-to-date performance, while a weaker dollar and modestly lower rates provided another 10 points. Economic expansion and investor positioning also offered meaningful support.

Looking ahead, the WGC expects many of the same pressures to influence the market in 2026. But it cautions that gold begins the year from a very different starting point. Prices have already factored in broad expectations of steady global growth, moderate rate cuts, and a stable dollar. With real interest rates no longer falling sharply and momentum cooling, the Council describes gold as fairly valued at current levels.

In its central outlook, the WGC projects gold trading in a narrow band next year, with returns likely ranging between a 5% decline and a 5% gain. The group notes that investor sentiment is balanced rather than defensive, reducing the likelihood of outsized moves unless economic conditions shift significantly.

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Three alternative scenarios could force a deviation from this baseline. In a mild economic slowdown marked by extra US rate cuts, gold could rise 5% to 15% as investors position more cautiously. A deeper recession could push gains even higher, with the WGC estimating a potential 15% to 30% jump driven by aggressive policy easing and renewed safe-haven flows. On the other hand, if pro-growth policies from the Trump administration lift yields and strengthen the dollar, gold could fall 5% to 20% as opportunity costs rise.

Despite the WGC’s measured tone, major Wall Street institutions remain bullish. J.P. Morgan Private Bank expects prices to climb to between $5,200 and $5,300 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs forecasts around $4,900. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley also see room for appreciation, though both acknowledge possible volatility in the coming months.

Much of this optimism is tied to ongoing demand from central banks, especially in emerging markets, and the belief that many global investors remain underexposed to gold. Softening real yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty are also seen as supportive.

At the same time, risks could hinder further gains. A stronger US economy, renewed inflation pressures, or reduced central bank buying could weigh on the market. Rising supply from recycled gold, particularly in India where the metal is widely used as collateral, may also place pressure on prices.

While a repeat of 2025’s dramatic rise appears unlikely, analysts agree that gold enters the new year from a position of strength. Its reputation as a hedge during unpredictable times remains firmly intact, keeping it central to many investors’ long-term strategies.

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Chinese Car Brands Gain Ground in Norway Despite Rising Consumer Concerns

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Chinese-owned car brands are gaining a growing share of Norway’s rapidly expanding electric vehicle market, even as more Norwegian drivers express concerns about buying vehicles from Chinese manufacturers.

Electric cars accounted for 97.8% of new car registrations in Norway during the first eight months of 2026, according to the Norwegian Road Federation. The country remains the world’s leading market for electric vehicle adoption and is far ahead of the European Union, where electric cars represented 21.7% of new registrations between January and August, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.

About one in four new electric vehicles registered in Norway this year came from Chinese brands or companies with Chinese ownership. Manufacturers such as BYD, NIO and Dongfeng, along with Chinese-owned brands including Volvo and Polestar, accounted for about 25% of new EV registrations during the first half of the year.

Their presence has expanded rapidly. Chinese brands were almost absent from Norway’s car market in 2019, but have since become one of the largest groups by ownership origin.

A survey conducted by the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association between March 31 and May 3 found that 31% of nearly 15,000 EV owners questioned would avoid buying a Chinese brand for political reasons. That compared with 23% in the previous year’s survey.

“New cars are, in practice, computers on wheels,” association Secretary General Christina Bu said.

She said greater attention to data security and privacy was making consumers more conscious of where vehicles come from and how information collected by them is handled.

Norwegian security researchers previously found that a vehicle produced by Chinese manufacturer NIO was transmitting data to China. Separate testing of a Yutong bus found that the manufacturer had access to its control system, raising concerns about whether such vehicles could potentially be disabled remotely.

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Despite these concerns, Chinese-owned manufacturers continue to attract buyers. Bu said consumers consider several factors when purchasing vehicles, including price, technology, data security and ethical concerns.

An earlier association report suggested Chinese-owned brands could overtake European manufacturers in Norway as soon as 2027 if current trends continue.

Chinese manufacturers are also expanding across the EU. Registrations among five groups featuring Chinese brands rose about 71% in August from a year earlier, while their combined share of the new-car market increased from 6.6% to 10.8%.

Leapmotor registrations rose 211%, Chery increased 201%, BYD climbed 129% and Geely Group grew 24%.

Meanwhile, political resistance to Tesla among Norwegian consumers has declined. The survey found that 24% would avoid Tesla for political reasons, down from 43% last year.

Bu attributed the change partly to reduced attention surrounding Tesla chief executive Elon Musk’s political activities. Tesla nevertheless remained Norway’s best-selling new-car brand, with a 17.5% registration share through September 24.

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European Governments Expand Fuel Tax Cuts and Energy Support as Prices Surge

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European governments are expanding fuel tax cuts, subsidies and energy measures as record petrol and diesel prices increase pressure on households and businesses across the region.

France, Germany and Spain are among the countries introducing or extending support as governments respond to disruptions linked to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. The European Union is also facing uncertainty over global diesel supplies amid possible US restrictions on exports.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said seven of the 10 countries that have taken the largest number of measures to limit the economic impact of higher energy prices are EU members.

Europe was already facing energy challenges before the conflict involving Iran. Russia’s war in Ukraine disrupted supplies and contributed to sharp movements in European energy markets. The EU imports nearly all of the oil it consumes and about 85% of its natural gas, while imports account for 57% of the bloc’s overall energy needs, according to Eurostat.

Drivers are now facing particularly high diesel costs. Campaign group Transport & Environment estimates that EU motorists are spending an additional €203 million a day on diesel.

EU leaders have given member states temporary flexibility to provide state aid to households and energy-intensive sectors, including agriculture, transport and fishing. Governments have also been given limited flexibility under EU spending rules for investments aimed at strengthening energy security and reducing dependence on imported oil and gas.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said higher energy prices and borrowing costs were putting pressure on households and businesses. She called for greater investment in domestic clean energy, including renewable power, nuclear energy and biomethane.

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France has announced a €450 million package expanding assistance for fuel users and energy-intensive businesses. The government said 5.5 million workers who drive more than 30 kilometres on a round trip to work, or more than 8,000 kilometres a year for professional purposes, will qualify for €100 fuel payments through the end of the year.

Fuel subsidies for farmers, fishers and construction companies have also been extended. Energy vouchers ranging from €48 to €277 will be distributed three months earlier than planned to help 5.8 million households meet winter energy costs.

French President Emmanuel Macron has also asked the European Commission to consider relaxing some fuel quality requirements to increase diesel and kerosene production. He has proposed raising the EU limit for conventional biodiesel in standard diesel from 7% to 10%.

Germany has agreed to revive fuel tax cuts that expired at the end of June. From October 1 until the end of December, petrol and diesel prices will be reduced by 17 cents per litre, at a cost of €2.5 billion. Berlin also plans discussions with the oil industry over a possible fuel price cap from January.

Spain has extended fuel tax reductions introduced in March as part of a €5 billion support package. The current reduction is 5 cents per litre, with an automatic increase to 20 cents if annual fuel-price inflation exceeds 15%. Subsidies for transport firms, farmers, livestock producers and fishers have also been extended.

EU countries have also been drawing on strategic oil reserves after International Energy Agency members agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles.

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At the same time, Europe continues to increase renewable energy production and shift industries toward electricity as it seeks to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.

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Malta and Cyprus Rank Among Europe’s Most Tax-Friendly Destinations for Relocating Workers

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Malta and Cyprus have secured places among the world’s 10 highest-ranked tax jurisdictions for people considering moving abroad, while Germany has been placed last in a new global comparison.

The ranking by Global Citizen Solutions (GCS) assesses 48 jurisdictions using 11 indicators grouped into tax burden, tax structure and investment migration. The investment migration category considers options available to people seeking residence or citizenship.

A higher score indicates more favourable conditions for internationally mobile individuals. Tax optimisation refers to the legal arrangement of finances to reduce tax liabilities.

Malta and Cyprus each scored 82 out of 100 for tax burden and 63 for tax structure. Malta received a score of 83 for investment migration, compared with 78 for Cyprus. Malta ranked sixth globally, while Cyprus came 10th.

GCS said the two countries achieved their positions through preferential tax regimes rather than low headline income tax rates. Their systems can provide favourable treatment for certain types of foreign income earned by people relocating to the countries.

Monaco, with a score of 68.6, Georgia at 68.3 and Bulgaria at 62.8, completed the top five European jurisdictions. After those countries, European scores fell below 60, with most placing outside the global top 20.

Germany ranked 48th and scored only 17 for tax structure. GCS identified the taxation of residents’ worldwide income, inheritance tax and exit tax as factors contributing to its position.

Denmark scored 30.4, Spain 36.9, France 37.7 and Norway 38.4. The United Kingdom was the next-lowest European jurisdiction, with a score of 50.9.

Italy recorded the highest score among Europe’s five largest economies at 56.9, placing ninth in Europe and 26th globally. Switzerland scored 58.2, followed by the Netherlands at 51.2. Turkey scored 56.9, Hungary 54.9, Sweden 54.1 and Ireland 53.1.

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The separate tax burden measure covers personal income tax, capital gains tax on listed securities, wealth tax and inheritance tax. Monaco led Europe with 93, followed by Bulgaria at 92 and Andorra at 89. Malta and Cyprus both scored 82.

Tax structure focuses on foreign income and taxation affecting people who leave a country. Malta and Cyprus shared the highest European score of 63, while Germany recorded 17.

The report said tax rates and tax structures can operate independently, meaning a country with relatively low taxes may still have less favourable rules for foreign income or people relocating overseas.

Globally, the UAE ranked first with 82.7, followed by Antigua and Barbuda at 82.2, Paraguay at 77.2, Hong Kong at 76.9 and the Bahamas at 76.2.

The report also compared tax scores with quality-of-life rankings. Sweden, Germany, Denmark and Norway ranked highly for quality of life but much lower for tax optimisation.

Seven jurisdictions stood out for combining relatively favourable tax conditions with strong quality-of-life rankings: Malta, Cyprus, Portugal, Switzerland, Uruguay, Costa Rica and Mauritius.

The findings suggest that people considering relocation may assess tax structures alongside public services and wider living conditions, rather than focusing solely on headline tax rates.

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