Business
Eurozone Services Rebound in December, but Manufacturing Slump Persists
The eurozone’s economy ended 2024 on a mixed note, as a rebound in the services sector partially offset a prolonged manufacturing slump, according to flash data from S&P Global. December’s Composite PMI rose to 49.5 from November’s 48.3, surpassing expectations of 48.2 but remaining below the 50-mark, indicating contraction.
Services Sector Lifts Overall Activity
The services sector showed renewed vigor, with its PMI climbing to 51.4 in December from 49.5 the previous month, signaling a return to growth after a brief contraction. This recovery helped buoy overall economic activity despite manufacturing woes. The manufacturing PMI recorded its 21st consecutive monthly decline, reflecting ongoing struggles in the sector.
“While manufacturing is still deep in recession, the rebound in services output is a welcome boost for the overall economy,” said Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
However, signs of weakness persisted. New orders and job cuts in the services sector accelerated at the fastest pace in four years, raising concerns about labor market resilience as the eurozone enters 2025.
Inflation Pressures Resurface
Inflationary pressures re-emerged in December, with input costs and output prices rising for the third consecutive month. Wage increases were a significant driver, leading businesses to pass costs onto consumers.
“The PMI price indicators offer little reassurance,” de la Rubia noted. “Input costs are climbing, and businesses are responding with higher selling prices.”
The European Central Bank’s cautious monetary stance, including a recent 25-basis-point rate cut, appears justified as inflation concerns persist.
Germany and France Remain in Contraction
Germany and France, the eurozone’s two largest economies, continued to weigh on overall performance. Both nations recorded contracting business activity, albeit at a slower pace than previous months.
In Germany, the services sector showed tentative signs of stabilization, supported by rising real wages. Analysts are cautiously optimistic about a potential recovery, particularly with upcoming snap elections in February, which could provide greater political clarity.
France, however, faced ongoing challenges. Manufacturing remained a weak spot, with low domestic and international orders dragging on performance. The country’s services sector also struggled to sustain momentum after a summer boost from the Paris Olympics. Businesses cited political uncertainty as a significant barrier to growth.
Market Reaction
Financial markets reacted cautiously to the PMI data. The euro remained steady at $1.0510, while bond yields in the eurozone held firm. However, equities showed strain, with the Euro STOXX 50 and Euro STOXX 600 down 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
France’s CAC 40 underperformed, falling 0.6%, following Moody’s downgrade of France’s credit rating from Aa2 to Aa3, citing fiscal instability.
Outlook
While the services rebound offers a glimmer of hope, challenges remain for the eurozone. Political uncertainty in Germany and France, coupled with ongoing manufacturing struggles and inflation, could hinder recovery efforts heading into 2025.
Economists warn that while services momentum is encouraging, a sustained recovery will require addressing deeper structural and political challenges.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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