Business activity in the eurozone has entered expansion territory for the first time since August 2024, according to preliminary data from the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB). The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key indicator of economic health, rose to 50.2 in January from 49.6 in December, signaling modest growth.
A PMI reading above 50 denotes expansion, while a score below that threshold indicates contraction.
“The kick-off to the new year is mildly encouraging,” said Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at HCOB. “The private sector is back in cautious growth mode after two months of shrinking. The drag from the manufacturing sector has eased, while the services sector continues to grow moderately.”
Sector Breakdown
The Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone climbed to an eight-month high of 46.8 in January, up from 44.3 in December, though it remains in contraction territory. Meanwhile, the Services PMI edged lower to 51.4 from 51.6, indicating slower but continued expansion in the services sector.
Commenting on the data, Jack Allen-Reynolds, Deputy Chief Eurozone Economist at Capital Economics, noted that while the improvement was better than expected, the economy remains under pressure. “It’s hard to argue that this was anything other than another weak survey,” he said.
New orders in the eurozone fell for the eighth consecutive month in January, while export orders have declined continuously for nearly three years.
Germany and France
In Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, the Composite PMI reached a seven-month high of 50.1, moving into expansion territory from December’s 48.0. Manufacturing output shrank at its slowest rate since mid-2024, and services companies increased employment for the first time since June.
France also saw its Composite and Manufacturing PMIs rise, though both remained in contraction territory. The Services PMI declined, reflecting ongoing economic challenges linked to the country’s political and fiscal uncertainty.
Rising Costs and Inflation
January saw a sharp rise in input costs, the fastest since April 2023, driven by increased manufacturing and services expenses. These costs were passed on to consumers, with Germany experiencing the steepest rise in output prices. Elsewhere, price inflation quickened across the eurozone, while France recorded its first decline in selling prices in nearly four years.
“All of this puts the ECB in a difficult situation: very weak growth with somewhat stickier inflation,” said Peter Vanden Houte, Chief Economist at ING Belgium.
Outlook
Despite the slight upturn, analysts warn of challenges ahead. Dr. Klaus Deutsch, Chair of Business at the OECD Economic Policy Committee, noted that competitiveness and geopolitical uncertainties continue to hinder recovery prospects.
The European Central Bank is expected to continue its gradual easing process, with 25-basis-point rate cuts anticipated in upcoming meetings.