Business
Trade Policy Uncertainty Threatens Global Growth, Oxford Economics Warns
Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies is expected to have a significant impact on business investment in major economies, with the EU and UK projected to see a 2% decline in investments this year, according to a report by Oxford Economics.
Investment Decline Amid Trade War Fears
The study warns that businesses are scaling back investment plans due to increasing trade tensions, particularly those influenced by the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump. With global trade disputes escalating, investment across key economies such as the U.S., China, the Eurozone, and the UK is facing a notable decline.
Oxford Economics found that investment undershot by approximately 4% in the U.S. and China and around 2% in the Eurozone and UK. While this decline is not catastrophic, it poses a significant challenge to global economic stability. In 2023, business investment accounted for 22% of GDP in China, 15% in the U.S., 12% in the Eurozone, and 10% in the UK. The decline in investment could have a lasting effect on economic growth.
Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies
Beyond the uncertainty itself, higher tariffs imposed as part of ongoing trade disputes are also negatively affecting economic growth while simultaneously driving inflation higher.
The report highlights growing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, particularly after Trump proposed a 200% tariff on EU alcohol imports in retaliation for the EU’s 50% duty on U.S.-made whiskey. In response, the European Commission is considering countermeasures on up to €26 billion worth of U.S. goods.
Additionally, the U.S. government is closely monitoring the EU’s digital competition regulations, which could result in substantial fines for major American tech companies such as Apple and Meta. Retaliatory measures from the U.S. remain a possibility.
Small Economies at Higher Risk
Oxford Economics’ research indicates that smaller, trade-dependent economies in the Eurozone—such as Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Bulgaria—are likely to be hit the hardest. GDP in these countries could shrink by up to 1% over the next two years due to reduced investment and trade activity.
Among larger EU economies, Belgium and Italy are expected to suffer the most. Exporters that rely on U.S. markets are particularly vulnerable, as firms hesitate to expand capacity or invest in production amid the uncertainty of shifting trade policies.
This uncertainty is also affecting the automotive industry, a key sector for EU exports. The unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies has led to hesitation in investment decisions related to hiring, research and development, and market expansion. Consumers, too, are delaying major purchases, further slowing economic activity.
Possible Outcomes for Global Trade
Oxford Economics outlines four possible scenarios for trade uncertainty and its impact on private investment and global growth.
- Rapid Decline in Uncertainty – If trade policy uncertainty dissipates by the end of the year, investment levels are expected to recover in 2026 and beyond.
- Prolonged Uncertainty Until 2028 – If uncertainty persists and is coupled with increased tariffs, global investment could suffer long-term harm, with declines of up to 10% in the U.S. and China, 6% in the Eurozone, and 4%-5% in the UK.
- Gradual Decline to a High-Level of Uncertainty – If uncertainty remains elevated for several years, it could lead to a sustained drag on global investment, reducing it by 10%-20% in major economies.
- Uncertainty Lasting Until 2029 – The worst-case scenario predicts a 20% drop in investment in China, 14% in the U.S., 10% in the Eurozone, and 7% in the UK by 2029.
The report suggests that, in such a scenario, governments would need to introduce major monetary and fiscal policy interventions to prevent prolonged global economic stagnation.
A Growing Concern for Global Markets
As trade tensions persist and global uncertainty mounts, businesses are bracing for a challenging investment climate. Without a resolution to trade disputes, economic growth could face prolonged difficulties, reinforcing a cycle of low confidence and declining investments.
The coming months will be critical in determining whether global policymakers can ease tensions and provide stability, or if prolonged uncertainty will further hinder economic recovery.
Business
Fitch Cuts France’s Debt Outlook to Negative Amid Budget Deadlock and Weak Growth
Credit rating agency Fitch has revised France’s sovereign debt outlook from stable to negative while maintaining its rating at A+, citing weaker economic growth, rising borrowing costs and concerns over the country’s ability to reduce its public deficit.
The decision increases pressure on the French government to secure approval for its 2027 budget by the end of the year, as political divisions and an approaching presidential election complicate efforts to restore public finances.
Fitch’s announcement on Friday followed figures from the national statistics institute Insee showing that France’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026. The economy had stagnated in the second quarter after shrinking by 0.2% in the first three months of the year.
The agency pointed to persistent political fragmentation and a difficult social climate, including mass protests, as factors weakening confidence in the government’s ability to deliver lasting fiscal improvements.
Economy and Finance Minister Roland Lescure said he took note of Fitch’s decision, describing the adoption of a responsible budget before the end of the year as an absolute necessity.
The government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 5% of gross domestic product, while maintaining a path towards fiscal consolidation. Lescure said a clear budget was needed to give businesses and investors greater certainty in an uncertain international environment.
Earlier on Friday, he described the French economy as being at a standstill and warned that the country could face serious difficulties if the proposed recovery budget was not adopted. He repeated that the deficit needed to be brought down to 5% or less.
However, securing parliamentary approval remains uncertain because President Emmanuel Macron’s government lacks a majority in the National Assembly. The approaching 2027 presidential election is also adding to political tensions.
Fitch expects the budget to be adopted despite the parliamentary deadlock, pointing to constitutional procedures available to the government. The agency said political debates ahead of the election had done little to strengthen its confidence in France’s ability to achieve a lasting reduction in the deficit and stabilise public debt.
One option available to the government is Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which allows legislation to pass without a parliamentary vote unless lawmakers approve a motion of no confidence.
The government could also consider adopting the budget through ordinances, although this procedure has never been used to pass a national budget since the Fifth Republic was established in 1958.
Jérôme Mathis, an economics professor at Paris-Dauphine University, told Euronews that using ordinances could reduce uncertainty in the short term. However, he warned that such a move would not necessarily restore France’s long-term fiscal credibility.
The negative outlook signals increased concern over France’s financial position, although its A+ rating remains unchanged. The government’s ability to pass the 2027 budget and demonstrate credible deficit-reduction measures will be central to restoring confidence.
Business
Uzbekistan Launches Apple Pay and Google Pay Following Financial Sector Reforms
Uzbekistan has introduced Apple Pay and Google Pay, opening access to two major international digital payment platforms as the country moves to modernise its financial services sector.
The rollout follows regulatory changes to personal data laws and discussions between Uzbek officials and technology companies. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has also confirmed that work is underway to extend the services to cards issued through domestic payment networks Uzcard and HUMO, although no launch date has been announced.
Saida Mirziyoyeva, head of the Presidential Administration, announced the availability of the services for locally issued cards on October 27. She had met Google Vice President Karan Bhatia in New York a month earlier to discuss technological cooperation and the conditions needed for international payment providers to operate in the country.
Banks included in the rollout
Before the launch, customers in Uzbekistan could use domestic mobile and contactless payment services, including HUMO Pay and UZCARD PAY, as well as QR code systems.
The introduction of Apple Pay and Google Pay gives eligible cardholders access to international platforms for mobile payments.
Apple Pay initially supports Visa and Mastercard cards issued by eight local banks and financial institutions: Uzum Bank, Orient Finans Bank, the National Bank of Uzbekistan, Kapitalbank, Hamkorbank, Ipak Yuli Bank, TBC Bank and Octobank. Uzum Bank and Hamkorbank currently support Visa cards only.
Google Pay is available for eligible cards from nine banks: AVO Bank, Octobank, Uzum Bank, TBC Bank, Aloqabank, Kapitalbank, Ipak Yuli Bank, the National Bank of Uzbekistan and Orient Finans Bank.
Customers have been advised to contact their banks to confirm which cards can be added to the services.
The Central Bank told Euronews that both platforms protect customers’ card information during transactions. Cashback offers and other benefits will depend on the conditions set by individual banks.
Changes to data protection rules
The launch follows amendments to Uzbekistan’s personal data legislation in March 2026, which eased restrictions on the processing and storage of certain types of personal information outside the country.
During her September meeting with Google’s Bhatia, Mirziyoyeva linked the regulatory changes to the arrival of international payment systems, saying they were creating wider opportunities for their use in Uzbekistan.
The discussions also covered cooperation in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity training and support for the country’s technology industry.
The development forms part of Uzbekistan’s broader efforts to strengthen its financial technology sector. In September, the Central Bank approved a National Fintech Strategy covering the 2026-2030 period.
The strategy aims to attract investment, expand cross-border payments, introduce Open Banking and improve connections between financial systems.
The planned inclusion of Uzcard and HUMO would extend access to the international payment platforms beyond customers using Visa and Mastercard, bringing more locally issued cards into the expanding digital payments market.
Business
AstraZeneca Third-Quarter Profit Jumps 23% as Drugmaker Plans $1.5 Billion in Annual Savings
AstraZeneca reported a 23 per cent increase in third-quarter net profit, supported by strong sales of its cancer medicines, as the British pharmaceutical company announced plans to save $1.5 billion annuAstraZeneca Third-Quarter Profit Jumps 23% as Drugmaker Plans $1.5 Billion in Annual Savings
ally and reinvest the funds in developing new treatments.
The company said on Friday that profit after tax reached $3.12 billion for the July to September period, compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The increase marked a stronger performance than the previous quarter, when net profit rose just over 2 per cent.
Revenue increased 7 per cent to $16.2 billion, while core earnings per share rose 17 per cent to $2.79. The earnings figure excludes certain items, including restructuring costs and the amortisation of acquired medicines.
Oncology remained AstraZeneca’s largest business, accounting for 48 per cent of total revenue. Sales in the division increased 17 per cent to $7.8 billion, supported by demand for lung cancer treatment Tagrisso and immunotherapy Imfinzi.
The company’s new cost-saving programme, named Reshaping for Sustainable Growth, is expected to generate $1.5 billion in annual savings. AstraZeneca said the funds would mainly support its research and development pipeline, which includes more than 180 projects.
The restructuring is expected to involve one-off charges of up to $2 billion and is scheduled to be largely completed by the end of 2029. The company did not announce any job cuts, although the changes could affect its workforce as resources are redirected across the business.
Chief Executive Pascal Soriot said AstraZeneca remained on course to achieve its long-term growth ambitions, pointing to late-stage drug candidates and the expansion of new technologies.
Pressure from generic medicines and China
The company’s growth came despite declining sales of some established medicines. Revenue from Farxiga, used to treat diabetes, heart and kidney disease, fell 25 per cent to $1.6 billion after generic alternatives entered the US market. Blood thinner Brilinta has also faced competition following the loss of patent protection.
AstraZeneca is also dealing with China’s volume-based procurement system, under which state purchasing programmes secure large orders from pharmaceutical companies in exchange for lower prices.
The drugmaker maintained its 2026 financial outlook, forecasting revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits and an increase in core earnings per share in the low double digits, excluding currency movements.
It also reaffirmed its ambition to generate $80 billion in annual revenue by 2030, compared with nearly $59 billion in 2025. The company expects the US market to account for half of that target.
AstraZeneca has expanded its focus on the US, adding a direct share listing in New York in February, while also pledging to invest $15 billion in China by 2030.
The company said it had recorded 12 positive late-stage clinical trial results so far this year. Its development programme also includes a weight-loss treatment intended to compete with products such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro.
AstraZeneca shares rose more than 4.5 per cent in early trading on Friday following the results.
-
Entertainment2 years agoMeta Acquires Tilda Swinton VR Doc ‘Impulse: Playing With Reality’
-
Sports2 years agoChina’s Historic Olympic Victory Sparks National Pride Amid Controversy
-
Business2 years agoSaudi Arabia’s Model for Sustainable Aviation Practices
-
Business2 years agoRecent Developments in Small Business Taxes
-
Home Improvement2 years agoEffective Drain Cleaning: A Key to a Healthy Plumbing System
-
Politics2 years agoWho was Ebrahim Raisi and his status in Iranian Politics?
-
Sports2 years agoKeely Hodgkinson Wins Britain’s First Athletics Gold at Paris Olympics in 800m
-
Business2 years agoCarrectly: Revolutionizing Car Care in Chicago
