Business

Trade Policy Uncertainty Threatens Global Growth, Oxford Economics Warns

Published

1 year ago

March 21, 2025

RTX

Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies is expected to have a significant impact on business investment in major economies, with the EU and UK projected to see a 2% decline in investments this year, according to a report by Oxford Economics.

Investment Decline Amid Trade War Fears

The study warns that businesses are scaling back investment plans due to increasing trade tensions, particularly those influenced by the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump. With global trade disputes escalating, investment across key economies such as the U.S., China, the Eurozone, and the UK is facing a notable decline.

Oxford Economics found that investment undershot by approximately 4% in the U.S. and China and around 2% in the Eurozone and UK. While this decline is not catastrophic, it poses a significant challenge to global economic stability. In 2023, business investment accounted for 22% of GDP in China, 15% in the U.S., 12% in the Eurozone, and 10% in the UK. The decline in investment could have a lasting effect on economic growth.

Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

Beyond the uncertainty itself, higher tariffs imposed as part of ongoing trade disputes are also negatively affecting economic growth while simultaneously driving inflation higher.

The report highlights growing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, particularly after Trump proposed a 200% tariff on EU alcohol imports in retaliation for the EU’s 50% duty on U.S.-made whiskey. In response, the European Commission is considering countermeasures on up to €26 billion worth of U.S. goods.

Additionally, the U.S. government is closely monitoring the EU’s digital competition regulations, which could result in substantial fines for major American tech companies such as Apple and Meta. Retaliatory measures from the U.S. remain a possibility.

Small Economies at Higher Risk

Oxford Economics’ research indicates that smaller, trade-dependent economies in the Eurozone—such as Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Bulgaria—are likely to be hit the hardest. GDP in these countries could shrink by up to 1% over the next two years due to reduced investment and trade activity.

Among larger EU economies, Belgium and Italy are expected to suffer the most. Exporters that rely on U.S. markets are particularly vulnerable, as firms hesitate to expand capacity or invest in production amid the uncertainty of shifting trade policies.

This uncertainty is also affecting the automotive industry, a key sector for EU exports. The unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies has led to hesitation in investment decisions related to hiring, research and development, and market expansion. Consumers, too, are delaying major purchases, further slowing economic activity.

Possible Outcomes for Global Trade

Oxford Economics outlines four possible scenarios for trade uncertainty and its impact on private investment and global growth.

Rapid Decline in Uncertainty – If trade policy uncertainty dissipates by the end of the year, investment levels are expected to recover in 2026 and beyond.
Prolonged Uncertainty Until 2028 – If uncertainty persists and is coupled with increased tariffs, global investment could suffer long-term harm, with declines of up to 10% in the U.S. and China, 6% in the Eurozone, and 4%-5% in the UK.
Gradual Decline to a High-Level of Uncertainty – If uncertainty remains elevated for several years, it could lead to a sustained drag on global investment, reducing it by 10%-20% in major economies.
Uncertainty Lasting Until 2029 – The worst-case scenario predicts a 20% drop in investment in China, 14% in the U.S., 10% in the Eurozone, and 7% in the UK by 2029.

The report suggests that, in such a scenario, governments would need to introduce major monetary and fiscal policy interventions to prevent prolonged global economic stagnation.

A Growing Concern for Global Markets

As trade tensions persist and global uncertainty mounts, businesses are bracing for a challenging investment climate. Without a resolution to trade disputes, economic growth could face prolonged difficulties, reinforcing a cycle of low confidence and declining investments.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether global policymakers can ease tensions and provide stability, or if prolonged uncertainty will further hinder economic recovery.

Business

Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist

Published

2 days ago

May 22, 2026

Web Reporter

Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.

European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.

Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.

Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.

Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.

Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.

Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.

Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.

In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.

Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.

Business

Goldman Sachs tapped to lead SpaceX IPO as Musk eyes record-breaking market debut

Published

4 days ago

May 20, 2026

Web Reporter

Goldman Sachs has reportedly secured the lead underwriting role for the anticipated stock market debut of SpaceX, a move that signals preparations are accelerating for what could become the largest initial public offering in history.

According to sources cited by CNBC, the aerospace and artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk is expected to move ahead with a public listing later this year at a valuation of at least $1.25 trillion.

Such a valuation would place SpaceX among the world’s most valuable publicly traded companies immediately after listing, potentially ranking ahead of Tesla, another company led by Musk.

The planned flotation is also expected to further boost Musk’s personal fortune and could make him the first person to reach trillionaire status, according to market analysts.

Reports suggest the company is considering an unusual structure for the offering that would reserve a significant portion of shares for individual investors. SpaceX is said to be exploring plans to allocate as much as 30 percent of IPO shares to retail buyers, a move that would give smaller investors broader access to one of the most highly anticipated stock offerings in recent years.

Large technology IPOs are typically dominated by institutional investors such as hedge funds and pension firms, making the proposed retail allocation notable within the investment industry.

Analysts said much of SpaceX’s valuation growth has been driven by its satellite internet business, Starlink, which has rapidly expanded its global subscriber base and established a recurring revenue stream.

The company also increased its exposure to artificial intelligence earlier this year through an all-stock deal involving xAI, another Musk-controlled business. The transaction reportedly valued SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion, creating a combined private valuation of $1.25 trillion.

The expected listing comes at a time when global IPO markets are beginning to recover after several years of weak activity caused by higher interest rates and volatility in technology stocks.

Recent enthusiasm around AI-related firms has revived investor appetite for major public offerings. Last week, AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems debuted on the Nasdaq and ended trading with a valuation near $95 billion, strengthening expectations for more large-scale technology listings in 2026.

For Goldman Sachs, landing the lead role in the SpaceX offering would represent one of the most prestigious deals in modern Wall Street history. Competition among major investment banks for high-profile technology listings has intensified as firms seek to secure lucrative underwriting fees and strengthen relationships with fast-growing AI and technology companies.

Neither SpaceX nor Goldman Sachs has publicly confirmed the reports.

Business

Greek Stocks Stage Remarkable Comeback After Years of Financial Turmoil

Published

5 days ago

May 19, 2026

Web Reporter

A decade after Greece’s financial crisis pushed its banking system to the brink and wiped out most of the country’s stock market value, Athens has emerged as one of the world’s strongest-performing equity markets, outperforming major global indices including the Nasdaq 100 over the past five years.

The recovery marks a dramatic reversal for a country once viewed as the eurozone’s biggest financial risk. In 2015, Greece imposed capital controls, shut its banks and froze trading on the Athens Stock Exchange as fears of sovereign default shook global markets. At the height of the crisis, cash withdrawals were limited to €60 a day and Greek government debt had been downgraded to junk status by major ratings agencies.

By February 2016, the Athens Composite Index had fallen more than 90 percent from its 2007 peak, while Greek banking shares lost nearly all their value.

Today, the picture looks very different.

The Athens Composite Index has returned about 146 percent over the past five years on a total-return basis, outpacing the Nasdaq 100, which gained around 116 percent during the same period. Greece’s rebound has been driven by sweeping banking reforms, stronger public finances and renewed investor confidence.

Greek banks played a central role in the recovery. Lenders including National Bank of Greece, Eurobank, Piraeus Bank and Alpha Bank spent years dealing with enormous volumes of bad loans accumulated during the debt crisis. At one point, nearly half of all loans on their books were classified as non-performing.

The clean-up accelerated under the government-backed Hercules asset protection scheme, which allowed banks to remove billions of euros in troubled loans from their balance sheets. Improved profitability, stronger deposits and tighter cost controls followed.

By 2025, the country’s four biggest banks had collectively posted profits close to €5 billion, with several restoring shareholder payouts and share buybacks.

At the same time, Greece carried out major tax and fiscal reforms under international supervision. Digital tax collection systems boosted compliance rates, while government finances steadily improved. Greece recorded primary budget surpluses in both 2024 and 2025, helping reduce its debt burden sharply from pandemic-era highs.

The recovery also prompted credit rating agencies to restore Greece to investment-grade status for the first time in more than a decade. Moody’s became the last major agency to do so in 2025.

International investors have increasingly returned to Greek assets, encouraged by still-attractive valuations compared with other European markets. Shares in some Greek banks have risen roughly 500 percent over the last five years, though many still trade at lower earnings multiples than their European peers.

Athens also received a major boost after Euronext completed its acquisition of the Greek stock exchange in late 2025, increasing the visibility of Greek companies among international investors and index funds.

Despite the turnaround, challenges remain. Greece’s economy is still heavily reliant on tourism, inflation remains elevated and officials warn that tensions in the Middle East could affect growth and energy prices.

Even so, Greece’s transformation from financial crisis symbol to one of Europe’s strongest market recoveries has become one of the most notable turnaround stories in global finance.