Business
Trade Policy Uncertainty Threatens Global Growth, Oxford Economics Warns
Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies is expected to have a significant impact on business investment in major economies, with the EU and UK projected to see a 2% decline in investments this year, according to a report by Oxford Economics.
Investment Decline Amid Trade War Fears
The study warns that businesses are scaling back investment plans due to increasing trade tensions, particularly those influenced by the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump. With global trade disputes escalating, investment across key economies such as the U.S., China, the Eurozone, and the UK is facing a notable decline.
Oxford Economics found that investment undershot by approximately 4% in the U.S. and China and around 2% in the Eurozone and UK. While this decline is not catastrophic, it poses a significant challenge to global economic stability. In 2023, business investment accounted for 22% of GDP in China, 15% in the U.S., 12% in the Eurozone, and 10% in the UK. The decline in investment could have a lasting effect on economic growth.
Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies
Beyond the uncertainty itself, higher tariffs imposed as part of ongoing trade disputes are also negatively affecting economic growth while simultaneously driving inflation higher.
The report highlights growing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, particularly after Trump proposed a 200% tariff on EU alcohol imports in retaliation for the EU’s 50% duty on U.S.-made whiskey. In response, the European Commission is considering countermeasures on up to €26 billion worth of U.S. goods.
Additionally, the U.S. government is closely monitoring the EU’s digital competition regulations, which could result in substantial fines for major American tech companies such as Apple and Meta. Retaliatory measures from the U.S. remain a possibility.
Small Economies at Higher Risk
Oxford Economics’ research indicates that smaller, trade-dependent economies in the Eurozone—such as Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Bulgaria—are likely to be hit the hardest. GDP in these countries could shrink by up to 1% over the next two years due to reduced investment and trade activity.
Among larger EU economies, Belgium and Italy are expected to suffer the most. Exporters that rely on U.S. markets are particularly vulnerable, as firms hesitate to expand capacity or invest in production amid the uncertainty of shifting trade policies.
This uncertainty is also affecting the automotive industry, a key sector for EU exports. The unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies has led to hesitation in investment decisions related to hiring, research and development, and market expansion. Consumers, too, are delaying major purchases, further slowing economic activity.
Possible Outcomes for Global Trade
Oxford Economics outlines four possible scenarios for trade uncertainty and its impact on private investment and global growth.
- Rapid Decline in Uncertainty – If trade policy uncertainty dissipates by the end of the year, investment levels are expected to recover in 2026 and beyond.
- Prolonged Uncertainty Until 2028 – If uncertainty persists and is coupled with increased tariffs, global investment could suffer long-term harm, with declines of up to 10% in the U.S. and China, 6% in the Eurozone, and 4%-5% in the UK.
- Gradual Decline to a High-Level of Uncertainty – If uncertainty remains elevated for several years, it could lead to a sustained drag on global investment, reducing it by 10%-20% in major economies.
- Uncertainty Lasting Until 2029 – The worst-case scenario predicts a 20% drop in investment in China, 14% in the U.S., 10% in the Eurozone, and 7% in the UK by 2029.
The report suggests that, in such a scenario, governments would need to introduce major monetary and fiscal policy interventions to prevent prolonged global economic stagnation.
A Growing Concern for Global Markets
As trade tensions persist and global uncertainty mounts, businesses are bracing for a challenging investment climate. Without a resolution to trade disputes, economic growth could face prolonged difficulties, reinforcing a cycle of low confidence and declining investments.
The coming months will be critical in determining whether global policymakers can ease tensions and provide stability, or if prolonged uncertainty will further hinder economic recovery.
Business
Digital Nomad Entrepreneurs Face Nine Key Challenges Before Moving Abroad
The digital nomad lifestyle has grown rapidly in recent years, but entrepreneurs planning to run their businesses from overseas face a range of financial, legal and operational issues before booking a one-way flight.
Google searches for “digital nomad visas” rose 1,135 per cent worldwide in 2024, according to Expatnetwork. The increase reflects growing interest in combining remote work with international travel, but business owners must plan carefully before relocating.
The first step is choosing the right visa. Countries including Brazil, Costa Rica, Thailand and Indonesia offer dedicated digital nomad visas, while other countries restrict employment on tourist visas.
Alex Miles, chief operating officer at business credit card company Capital on Tap, advised entrepreneurs to check eligibility rules, income requirements, permitted stay periods and renewal options before travelling.
Tax obligations are another major concern. Moving abroad can affect personal tax residency and a company’s legal responsibilities. Entrepreneurs may become liable for tax in more than one country, creating additional costs and compliance requirements.
Specialist tax and legal advice can help business owners understand double taxation agreements, reporting obligations and the point at which their residency status may change.
International finances also require preparation. Entrepreneurs should consider banking and payment services that support multiple currencies, offer competitive exchange rates and limit foreign transaction fees. Keeping personal and business finances separate can also simplify bookkeeping and tax reporting.
Reliable internet and suitable workspaces are equally important. Before choosing a destination, business owners should check internet speeds, mobile coverage and the availability of coworking spaces.
Insurance is another area that can easily be overlooked. Standard travel policies may not cover long-term remote work, expensive equipment or business activities. Entrepreneurs may need separate travel, health and business cover to protect against medical emergencies, stolen equipment and interruptions to operations.
Time zone differences can also affect productivity. Large gaps between an entrepreneur and clients or employees can create difficulties with meetings, deadlines and communication.
Cybersecurity is a further concern for people working from changing locations. Public Wi-Fi can expose business systems to additional risks, making virtual private networks, multi-factor authentication, software updates and secure networks important safeguards.
Entrepreneurs should also maintain an emergency fund to cover unexpected visa delays, medical expenses or accommodation changes without taking money from the business.
Finally, business owners need to protect long-term revenue and continuity. Client demand, payment schedules and market hours may change after relocation, making it important to ensure that the business can continue operating smoothly even when the owner is far from home.
Business
Spain has EU’s highest rate of vulnerable jobs, Eurofound report finds
Nearly one in five jobs across the European Union is vulnerable because of low pay, insecure employment or limited workplace rights, with Spain recording the highest rate, according to a new report by Eurofound.
The agency defines employment vulnerability as a combination of inadequate income, employment insecurity and a lack of workplace rights. Its latest analysis found that 18.8% of jobs in the EU met at least one of those criteria in 2021, the most recent year with comparable income data.
The overall trend has improved over the past decade. Vulnerability rose from 21.4% in 2009 to 23.8% in 2014 following the financial crisis, driven partly by an increase in involuntary temporary and part-time work. The rate then declined steadily from 2016, falling below its pre-crisis level.
Spain recorded the highest rate in the report at 29%, followed by Portugal and Luxembourg at 25% and Italy at 24%. Hungary recorded 17%, while Malta and Bulgaria each stood at 18%.
Data for 2021 was unavailable for Cyprus, Czechia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Sweden, which were excluded from the comparison.
The reasons for vulnerability vary across Europe. Low pay is the main factor in countries including Germany, Austria and several central and eastern European states. In Bulgaria, low income accounted for nearly three quarters of vulnerable employment in the report’s 2019 analysis.
In other countries, job insecurity is more significant. Involuntary temporary and part-time work plays a major role in several Mediterranean and Nordic countries and accounted for 56% of vulnerability in Ireland, the highest proportion recorded in the EU.
Eurofound said women, young people, migrants, Roma, people with disabilities and LGBT+ workers are more likely to experience vulnerable employment. Discrimination, care responsibilities, legal barriers and unrecognised qualifications can all increase the risk.
Education provides significant protection. In Hungary, 58% of workers with low levels of education were considered vulnerable, compared with 6% of graduates.
Experience also reduces the risk, with each additional year in the labour market associated with an average one percentage point decline in vulnerability.
The report warned that the greatest harm occurs when several disadvantages overlap. Workers facing multiple forms of vulnerability are more likely to experience poor career prospects, limited training opportunities, less autonomy and unpredictable earnings.
They also report higher levels of anxiety and depression.
Eurofound said policymakers must preserve flexibility while ensuring that temporary and other non-standard forms of employment do not weaken job quality. It also stressed that effective labour inspections are essential to enforce workplace protections.
Business
Oil Prices Climb as US-Iran Conflict Escalates and Strait of Hormuz Concerns Grow
Oil prices rose sharply on Monday after renewed fighting between the United States and Iran heightened concerns about the security of energy supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global crude exports.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 3.2 percent in early trading to reach $90.95 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 2.8 percent to $84.04 per barrel. The increases came after the United States carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, with Tehran responding by launching attacks against US allies across the Middle East.
The latest escalation has intensified fears that prolonged conflict could disrupt one of the world’s busiest oil transit routes. The Strait of Hormuz carries around one-fifth of global oil shipments, making any interruption a major concern for energy markets.
ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said the continuing exchange of attacks between Washington and Tehran was raising the risk of wider instability across the Gulf.
“The US and Iran continue to exchange strikes, which are proving to be deadly for both sides,” the analysts said in a market note. They warned that if the conflict continues to escalate, it could lead to widespread attacks across the Persian Gulf.
They also noted that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had slowed significantly, increasing concerns over oil supplies and contributing to the upward movement in crude prices.
The renewed geopolitical tensions added to uncertainty across global financial markets, where investors have already become cautious following strong gains in technology stocks linked to artificial intelligence.
AI-related shares, including semiconductor manufacturers, fell on Friday as investors questioned whether heavy investment in artificial intelligence could be creating excessive market valuations. Many traders chose to lock in profits after months of strong performance in the sector.
Jonas Goltermann, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, said the worsening conflict in the Gulf could place additional pressure on global markets.
He said the return of military confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz may increasingly weigh on investor sentiment, particularly if strong earnings from major technology companies continue to receive a cautious response from markets.
Investor confidence was also affected by the release of another advanced artificial intelligence model from China. Beijing-based Moonshot AI introduced its open-source Kimi K3 model, prompting fresh debate about growing competition in the AI industry.
Market observers compared the reaction to the release of China’s DeepSeek model earlier in 2025, which unsettled global technology stocks by demonstrating that lower-cost Chinese AI developers could compete with established international companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI.
With military tensions in the Middle East showing little sign of easing and investors monitoring developments in both energy and technology sectors, markets are expected to remain volatile in the days ahead.
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