Business
Trade Policy Uncertainty Threatens Global Growth, Oxford Economics Warns
Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies is expected to have a significant impact on business investment in major economies, with the EU and UK projected to see a 2% decline in investments this year, according to a report by Oxford Economics.
Investment Decline Amid Trade War Fears
The study warns that businesses are scaling back investment plans due to increasing trade tensions, particularly those influenced by the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump. With global trade disputes escalating, investment across key economies such as the U.S., China, the Eurozone, and the UK is facing a notable decline.
Oxford Economics found that investment undershot by approximately 4% in the U.S. and China and around 2% in the Eurozone and UK. While this decline is not catastrophic, it poses a significant challenge to global economic stability. In 2023, business investment accounted for 22% of GDP in China, 15% in the U.S., 12% in the Eurozone, and 10% in the UK. The decline in investment could have a lasting effect on economic growth.
Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies
Beyond the uncertainty itself, higher tariffs imposed as part of ongoing trade disputes are also negatively affecting economic growth while simultaneously driving inflation higher.
The report highlights growing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, particularly after Trump proposed a 200% tariff on EU alcohol imports in retaliation for the EU’s 50% duty on U.S.-made whiskey. In response, the European Commission is considering countermeasures on up to €26 billion worth of U.S. goods.
Additionally, the U.S. government is closely monitoring the EU’s digital competition regulations, which could result in substantial fines for major American tech companies such as Apple and Meta. Retaliatory measures from the U.S. remain a possibility.
Small Economies at Higher Risk
Oxford Economics’ research indicates that smaller, trade-dependent economies in the Eurozone—such as Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Bulgaria—are likely to be hit the hardest. GDP in these countries could shrink by up to 1% over the next two years due to reduced investment and trade activity.
Among larger EU economies, Belgium and Italy are expected to suffer the most. Exporters that rely on U.S. markets are particularly vulnerable, as firms hesitate to expand capacity or invest in production amid the uncertainty of shifting trade policies.
This uncertainty is also affecting the automotive industry, a key sector for EU exports. The unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies has led to hesitation in investment decisions related to hiring, research and development, and market expansion. Consumers, too, are delaying major purchases, further slowing economic activity.
Possible Outcomes for Global Trade
Oxford Economics outlines four possible scenarios for trade uncertainty and its impact on private investment and global growth.
- Rapid Decline in Uncertainty – If trade policy uncertainty dissipates by the end of the year, investment levels are expected to recover in 2026 and beyond.
- Prolonged Uncertainty Until 2028 – If uncertainty persists and is coupled with increased tariffs, global investment could suffer long-term harm, with declines of up to 10% in the U.S. and China, 6% in the Eurozone, and 4%-5% in the UK.
- Gradual Decline to a High-Level of Uncertainty – If uncertainty remains elevated for several years, it could lead to a sustained drag on global investment, reducing it by 10%-20% in major economies.
- Uncertainty Lasting Until 2029 – The worst-case scenario predicts a 20% drop in investment in China, 14% in the U.S., 10% in the Eurozone, and 7% in the UK by 2029.
The report suggests that, in such a scenario, governments would need to introduce major monetary and fiscal policy interventions to prevent prolonged global economic stagnation.
A Growing Concern for Global Markets
As trade tensions persist and global uncertainty mounts, businesses are bracing for a challenging investment climate. Without a resolution to trade disputes, economic growth could face prolonged difficulties, reinforcing a cycle of low confidence and declining investments.
The coming months will be critical in determining whether global policymakers can ease tensions and provide stability, or if prolonged uncertainty will further hinder economic recovery.
Business
Europe Pushes for Payment Sovereignty as Digital Euro and Instant Networks Advance
Europe is stepping up efforts to reduce its dependence on foreign payment networks as governments and financial institutions increasingly view payment infrastructure as a matter of economic and strategic security.
Visa and Mastercard, both US-based companies, process a large share of card payments across Europe. According to European Central Bank data, the two networks account for about 61 percent of card payments in the euro area and handle almost all cross-border card transactions.
European officials argue that this dependence could leave the region vulnerable to political pressure or disruptions during periods of geopolitical tension. The experience of Russia, where Visa and Mastercard suspended operations following Western sanctions, has reinforced concerns about relying heavily on foreign-controlled financial infrastructure.
The issue is one of the reasons the European Central Bank is backing the digital euro. The proposed electronic currency would be issued and guaranteed by the ECB and designed to operate alongside cash and existing banking services.
The digital euro is expected to support both online and offline payments, with commercial banks and payment providers serving customers while the ECB provides the underlying infrastructure. Supporters say the system could give European consumers and businesses a payment option based on European technology while reducing transaction costs for merchants.
Negotiations between the European Parliament and EU member states are entering their final stage, with approval targeted for the end of the year. A pilot programme involving 36 payment service providers is planned for 2027, while retail use could begin in 2029.
ECB President Christine Lagarde has said Europe needs its own payment solution to strengthen economic sovereignty and reduce dependence on foreign networks.
Private initiatives are also seeking to create a stronger European payments market. The European Payments Alliance and European Payments Initiative have agreed to connect instant payment systems used across several countries. The combined network could eventually reach around 380 million people in 15 European countries.
The goal is to allow consumers to make cross-border payments through their existing banking or payment applications without needing to switch platforms.
Similar efforts are under way elsewhere. In the UK, major banks including Barclays, NatWest, Lloyds and HSBC are supporting an initiative designed to expand account-to-account payments and reduce dependence on Visa and Mastercard.
Brazil has already developed a widely used domestic alternative through PIX, the instant payment system created by its central bank. PIX now accounts for more than half of transactions in the country and has become a symbol of Brazil’s payment independence.
Other countries are developing comparable systems. Colombia’s Bre-B instant payment network has rapidly gained users, while companies such as Brazilian fintech PagBrasil are working on systems that connect national payment platforms.
PagBrasil’s RoamingPay allows consumers to make QR-code payments abroad through their domestic banking apps or digital wallets.
The growing number of national payment systems has created a new challenge: interoperability. Industry experts argue that linking these systems could allow consumers to retain their domestic payment services while using them abroad, similar to mobile phone roaming.
For Europe, the debate is therefore moving beyond simply creating a homegrown payment system. The larger challenge is building networks that can operate across borders without leaving European consumers dependent on foreign card companies when they travel or conduct international business.
Business
European Stocks Challenge August’s Weak Reputation as Markets Reach Record Highs
European stock markets have entered August 2026 with remarkable strength, defying a long-standing belief that the month is traditionally one of the weakest periods for investors.
The EURO STOXX 50 and Germany’s DAX have climbed to record highs, while France’s CAC 40 remains close to its peak. The strong performance has surprised many market participants, as August has often been associated with poor returns across Europe’s major equity markets.
Historical data shows that the reputation is only partly accurate. While August has delivered average losses over several decades, analysts say those figures are heavily influenced by a small number of severe financial crises rather than consistent yearly declines.
The EURO STOXX 50 has recorded an average August decline of 1.42% since its creation. Germany’s DAX has averaged a 1.03% loss since 1970, and France’s CAC 40 has fallen an average of 1.22% in August since 1988. September has historically been an even weaker month for all three indexes.
This year tells a different story. On August 11, the EURO STOXX 50 closed above 6,560 points for the first time, marking an all-time high and a gain of about 13% since the beginning of the year. The DAX also surpassed 26,450 points, while the CAC 40 finished near 8,740.
Analysts argue that the median return provides a clearer picture of August’s typical performance. For the EURO STOXX 50, the median August return is only -0.19%, suggesting that most years are relatively stable and that extreme events have distorted the long-term average.
Five historic crises account for much of August’s negative reputation. The Russian debt default in 1998, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the eurozone debt crisis in 2011, the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and China’s yuan devaluation in 2015 all triggered sharp market declines during August. Excluding those years, the EURO STOXX 50’s average August return turns slightly positive.
Market specialists also point to seasonal trading conditions. August is traditionally a holiday period across Europe, leaving thinner market liquidity and making share prices more sensitive to unexpected news. With fewer monetary policy meetings scheduled during the summer, investors often have limited guidance until central bankers gather later in the month at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in the United States.
Despite the positive momentum, risks remain. Strong corporate earnings have supported European equities, but higher energy prices linked to Middle East tensions could revive inflation and pressure consumer spending and company profits.
Rather than proving August is destined to be a losing month, this year’s performance suggests investors should focus less on the calendar and more on the possibility of unexpected global shocks during a period of reduced market activity.
Business
Oil Prices Rise as Investors Await Key US Inflation Data
Oil prices rose on Wednesday while global stock markets delivered mixed results as investors focused on a closely watched US inflation report and developments surrounding stalled efforts to end the conflict involving Iran.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed 0.9 per cent to $89.67 a barrel in early trading. US West Texas Intermediate crude also gained 0.9 per cent to $83.98. Gold increased 0.8 per cent to $4,400.44 an ounce, while silver advanced 1 per cent to $65.30.
Energy markets remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Iran rejected remarks by US President Donald Trump suggesting Washington could seek compensation if Tehran demands compensation as part of negotiations to end the conflict.
The United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran in late February, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting the movement of oil through a critical global shipping route. Brent crude prices have experienced significant volatility, moving between $72 and $102 a barrel over the past month.
Concerns over regional security also increased after Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked a vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb strait near Yemen. The incident raised fears that further violence could threaten shipping through another important route connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
Rising energy costs are adding to inflation concerns in the United States. The average price of regular petrol reached $4.01 a gallon, according to AAA, compared with less than $3.14 a year earlier.
Investors are now awaiting the US government’s July inflation report. Economists expect annual inflation to have eased to 3.4 per cent from 3.5 per cent in June.
A softer inflation reading could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Higher rates can help contain price increases, but they can also increase borrowing costs for households and businesses and weigh on stock valuations.
Wall Street retreated further from its record levels on Tuesday. The S&P 500 declined 0.3 per cent for its second consecutive modest loss after reaching an all-time high on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 184 points, or 0.3 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6 per cent.
US Treasury yields have climbed since the conflict with Iran began, reflecting concerns about higher oil prices and inflation. Rising yields have also pushed long-term mortgage rates to their highest level in a year.
Asian markets were mostly higher on Wednesday. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.6 per cent to 67,334.94.
South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 4 per cent to 6,597.90 as investors bought technology stocks. Samsung Electronics rose 7.7 per cent, while SK Hynix gained 7.1 per cent.
Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 0.8 per cent, while Shanghai’s Composite index added 0.3 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2 per cent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.6 per cent.
In currency trading, the dollar strengthened to 159.41 yen from 159.30 yen, while the euro slipped to $1.1535 from $1.1544.
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