Business
EBRD Economies Show Resilience Amid Global Trade Disruptions
As U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to reshape global commerce, countries within the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) region are expected to experience only limited direct effects. However, the ripple effects of slowing global growth and shifting investment patterns could pose challenges in the years ahead, according to the EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report.
Global Growth Projections Lowered
The EBRD has revised its global growth projections for 2025 downward, reducing forecasts from 3.5% to 3.2%, citing ongoing uncertainty in international trade policies. The U.S. government’s recent threats to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, alongside doubling levies on Chinese goods to 20%, have contributed to an uncertain trade environment that could impact investment and production worldwide.
“Uncertainty surrounding trade regulations can have a significant detrimental effect on trade, investment, and production,” the EBRD report states. Additionally, the economic impact of U.S. tariffs will depend on whether they are applied universally or selectively.
Limited Direct Impact, But Indirect Consequences Loom
While Eastern Europe and Central Asia have minimal direct exposure to U.S. trade restrictions, EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik highlighted the indirect effects that could weigh on economic performance.
“The direct effect of possible U.S. tariffs is going to be limited simply because relatively few countries in Eastern Europe or Central Asia export significant quantities to the U.S.,” Javorcik explained. “What’s going to matter more is the indirect effect.”
Slower economic growth in advanced European economies will have a spillover impact on their trading partners in EBRD regions. Additionally, U.S. policies may affect emerging markets through two key channels:
- Cuts to U.S. financial aid – Countries such as Ukraine, Lebanon, Moldova, and Mongolia could feel the effects of reduced U.S. support.
- Higher borrowing costs – With U.S. interest rates expected to remain high, borrowing costs on international markets will increase, particularly for countries with high external debt in foreign currencies.
Foreign Investment Flows Shift to Connector Economies
The combination of U.S.-led trade tensions and the ongoing war in Ukraine is reshaping foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns. Investment flows between Europe and Russia and between the West and China have declined significantly, leading to increased FDI in “connector economies”—countries that maintain strong ties with both Western and Eastern blocs.
“We are seeing a reconfiguration of global FDI flows,” said Javorcik. “There’s been a sharp decline in inflows to China and Germany, while investment in India has increased. What’s particularly striking is the surge in FDI to the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan—countries that pursue multi-vector geopolitical policies.”
Central Asia Emerges as a Key Beneficiary
Countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus have experienced a significant rise in exports due to their role in intermediated trade. Compared to 2021, exports from Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Georgia, and Armenia to the European Union have surged by 90% in 2024. However, total exports declined by 5% compared to 2023, indicating a slowdown in trade growth.
Javorcik pointed out that Central Asia is now the fastest-growing region among EBRD economies, expanding at twice the speed of other regions. This growth has been driven by declining inflation, rising real wages, and increased consumer spending.
“While real wages in EU-EBRD economies remain 9% below pre-Covid levels, wages in Central Asia and the Caucasus have significantly surpassed pre-pandemic levels, boosting purchasing power and economic activity,” Javorcik added.
EBRD Expands Investments in Emerging Markets
The shifting global investment landscape has led to record EBRD commitments in Central Asia. In 2024, the bank invested €2.26 billion across 121 projects in six regional economies, signaling a strategic focus on emerging markets.
Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty in Global Trade
As geopolitical tensions, evolving trade relationships, and U.S. policies continue to shape the global economy, the resilience of EBRD nations will depend on their ability to adapt to disruptions and attract diversified investments. While connector economies in Central Asia and the Middle East are benefiting from investment shifts, the long-term impact of global trade tensions remains uncertain.
Business
Fitch Cuts France’s Debt Outlook to Negative Amid Budget Deadlock and Weak Growth
Credit rating agency Fitch has revised France’s sovereign debt outlook from stable to negative while maintaining its rating at A+, citing weaker economic growth, rising borrowing costs and concerns over the country’s ability to reduce its public deficit.
The decision increases pressure on the French government to secure approval for its 2027 budget by the end of the year, as political divisions and an approaching presidential election complicate efforts to restore public finances.
Fitch’s announcement on Friday followed figures from the national statistics institute Insee showing that France’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026. The economy had stagnated in the second quarter after shrinking by 0.2% in the first three months of the year.
The agency pointed to persistent political fragmentation and a difficult social climate, including mass protests, as factors weakening confidence in the government’s ability to deliver lasting fiscal improvements.
Economy and Finance Minister Roland Lescure said he took note of Fitch’s decision, describing the adoption of a responsible budget before the end of the year as an absolute necessity.
The government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 5% of gross domestic product, while maintaining a path towards fiscal consolidation. Lescure said a clear budget was needed to give businesses and investors greater certainty in an uncertain international environment.
Earlier on Friday, he described the French economy as being at a standstill and warned that the country could face serious difficulties if the proposed recovery budget was not adopted. He repeated that the deficit needed to be brought down to 5% or less.
However, securing parliamentary approval remains uncertain because President Emmanuel Macron’s government lacks a majority in the National Assembly. The approaching 2027 presidential election is also adding to political tensions.
Fitch expects the budget to be adopted despite the parliamentary deadlock, pointing to constitutional procedures available to the government. The agency said political debates ahead of the election had done little to strengthen its confidence in France’s ability to achieve a lasting reduction in the deficit and stabilise public debt.
One option available to the government is Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which allows legislation to pass without a parliamentary vote unless lawmakers approve a motion of no confidence.
The government could also consider adopting the budget through ordinances, although this procedure has never been used to pass a national budget since the Fifth Republic was established in 1958.
Jérôme Mathis, an economics professor at Paris-Dauphine University, told Euronews that using ordinances could reduce uncertainty in the short term. However, he warned that such a move would not necessarily restore France’s long-term fiscal credibility.
The negative outlook signals increased concern over France’s financial position, although its A+ rating remains unchanged. The government’s ability to pass the 2027 budget and demonstrate credible deficit-reduction measures will be central to restoring confidence.
Business
Uzbekistan Launches Apple Pay and Google Pay Following Financial Sector Reforms
Uzbekistan has introduced Apple Pay and Google Pay, opening access to two major international digital payment platforms as the country moves to modernise its financial services sector.
The rollout follows regulatory changes to personal data laws and discussions between Uzbek officials and technology companies. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has also confirmed that work is underway to extend the services to cards issued through domestic payment networks Uzcard and HUMO, although no launch date has been announced.
Saida Mirziyoyeva, head of the Presidential Administration, announced the availability of the services for locally issued cards on October 27. She had met Google Vice President Karan Bhatia in New York a month earlier to discuss technological cooperation and the conditions needed for international payment providers to operate in the country.
Banks included in the rollout
Before the launch, customers in Uzbekistan could use domestic mobile and contactless payment services, including HUMO Pay and UZCARD PAY, as well as QR code systems.
The introduction of Apple Pay and Google Pay gives eligible cardholders access to international platforms for mobile payments.
Apple Pay initially supports Visa and Mastercard cards issued by eight local banks and financial institutions: Uzum Bank, Orient Finans Bank, the National Bank of Uzbekistan, Kapitalbank, Hamkorbank, Ipak Yuli Bank, TBC Bank and Octobank. Uzum Bank and Hamkorbank currently support Visa cards only.
Google Pay is available for eligible cards from nine banks: AVO Bank, Octobank, Uzum Bank, TBC Bank, Aloqabank, Kapitalbank, Ipak Yuli Bank, the National Bank of Uzbekistan and Orient Finans Bank.
Customers have been advised to contact their banks to confirm which cards can be added to the services.
The Central Bank told Euronews that both platforms protect customers’ card information during transactions. Cashback offers and other benefits will depend on the conditions set by individual banks.
Changes to data protection rules
The launch follows amendments to Uzbekistan’s personal data legislation in March 2026, which eased restrictions on the processing and storage of certain types of personal information outside the country.
During her September meeting with Google’s Bhatia, Mirziyoyeva linked the regulatory changes to the arrival of international payment systems, saying they were creating wider opportunities for their use in Uzbekistan.
The discussions also covered cooperation in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity training and support for the country’s technology industry.
The development forms part of Uzbekistan’s broader efforts to strengthen its financial technology sector. In September, the Central Bank approved a National Fintech Strategy covering the 2026-2030 period.
The strategy aims to attract investment, expand cross-border payments, introduce Open Banking and improve connections between financial systems.
The planned inclusion of Uzcard and HUMO would extend access to the international payment platforms beyond customers using Visa and Mastercard, bringing more locally issued cards into the expanding digital payments market.
Business
AstraZeneca Third-Quarter Profit Jumps 23% as Drugmaker Plans $1.5 Billion in Annual Savings
AstraZeneca reported a 23 per cent increase in third-quarter net profit, supported by strong sales of its cancer medicines, as the British pharmaceutical company announced plans to save $1.5 billion annuAstraZeneca Third-Quarter Profit Jumps 23% as Drugmaker Plans $1.5 Billion in Annual Savings
ally and reinvest the funds in developing new treatments.
The company said on Friday that profit after tax reached $3.12 billion for the July to September period, compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The increase marked a stronger performance than the previous quarter, when net profit rose just over 2 per cent.
Revenue increased 7 per cent to $16.2 billion, while core earnings per share rose 17 per cent to $2.79. The earnings figure excludes certain items, including restructuring costs and the amortisation of acquired medicines.
Oncology remained AstraZeneca’s largest business, accounting for 48 per cent of total revenue. Sales in the division increased 17 per cent to $7.8 billion, supported by demand for lung cancer treatment Tagrisso and immunotherapy Imfinzi.
The company’s new cost-saving programme, named Reshaping for Sustainable Growth, is expected to generate $1.5 billion in annual savings. AstraZeneca said the funds would mainly support its research and development pipeline, which includes more than 180 projects.
The restructuring is expected to involve one-off charges of up to $2 billion and is scheduled to be largely completed by the end of 2029. The company did not announce any job cuts, although the changes could affect its workforce as resources are redirected across the business.
Chief Executive Pascal Soriot said AstraZeneca remained on course to achieve its long-term growth ambitions, pointing to late-stage drug candidates and the expansion of new technologies.
Pressure from generic medicines and China
The company’s growth came despite declining sales of some established medicines. Revenue from Farxiga, used to treat diabetes, heart and kidney disease, fell 25 per cent to $1.6 billion after generic alternatives entered the US market. Blood thinner Brilinta has also faced competition following the loss of patent protection.
AstraZeneca is also dealing with China’s volume-based procurement system, under which state purchasing programmes secure large orders from pharmaceutical companies in exchange for lower prices.
The drugmaker maintained its 2026 financial outlook, forecasting revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits and an increase in core earnings per share in the low double digits, excluding currency movements.
It also reaffirmed its ambition to generate $80 billion in annual revenue by 2030, compared with nearly $59 billion in 2025. The company expects the US market to account for half of that target.
AstraZeneca has expanded its focus on the US, adding a direct share listing in New York in February, while also pledging to invest $15 billion in China by 2030.
The company said it had recorded 12 positive late-stage clinical trial results so far this year. Its development programme also includes a weight-loss treatment intended to compete with products such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro.
AstraZeneca shares rose more than 4.5 per cent in early trading on Friday following the results.
-
Entertainment2 years agoMeta Acquires Tilda Swinton VR Doc ‘Impulse: Playing With Reality’
-
Sports2 years agoChina’s Historic Olympic Victory Sparks National Pride Amid Controversy
-
Business2 years agoSaudi Arabia’s Model for Sustainable Aviation Practices
-
Business2 years agoRecent Developments in Small Business Taxes
-
Home Improvement2 years agoEffective Drain Cleaning: A Key to a Healthy Plumbing System
-
Politics2 years agoWho was Ebrahim Raisi and his status in Iranian Politics?
-
Sports2 years agoKeely Hodgkinson Wins Britain’s First Athletics Gold at Paris Olympics in 800m
-
Business2 years agoCarrectly: Revolutionizing Car Care in Chicago
