Cocoa prices have dropped from record highs in recent weeks, but consumers across Europe are still paying significantly more for chocolate and related products, with prices up more than 16% year-on-year. According to new data from Eurostat, the cost of cocoa and powdered chocolate surged by 16.2% across the EU in May 2025, driven by a combination of volatile cocoa markets, energy costs, and climate-related crop disruptions.
Over the past year, European retail prices for chocolate have seen steady monthly increases, with inflation in cocoa-based products more than doubling from 6.3% last May. Analysts point to soaring cocoa bean prices—nearly tripling since 2023—as a key driver. Weather-related crop damage in major producing countries like Ghana and Ivory Coast has further strained supplies.
“The price of cocoa has skyrocketed in the past two years, hitting record levels last year,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. “While prices have retreated from highs of over $12,000 per tonne, they remain elevated and volatile.”
Recent figures show London cocoa futures have dropped to an eight-month low, with prices hovering around £5,310 ($7,236) per metric tonne—still more than double the level of mid-2023. Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, noted that global supply optimism is growing as farmers are incentivised by high prices to expand production. “Consumers have shown a willingness to pay more, which has encouraged investment in cocoa farming,” she said.
Despite this, experts caution that European chocolate prices are unlikely to fall in the near term. A report by UK consultancy Foresight Transitions warned that climate-related challenges and trade uncertainties—particularly those tied to U.S. tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump—are limiting downward movement in cocoa prices.
Additionally, the EU’s full reliance on imports, primarily from West Africa, leaves the bloc especially vulnerable to global market shocks. The region also has the world’s highest chocolate consumption, further intensifying the impact of supply disruptions.
The economic fallout has already affected industry jobs. Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest chocolate producer, recently laid off 20% of its workforce, with a third of those cuts in the EU.
“The combination of rising cocoa, energy and wage costs is putting chocolate producers under significant pressure,” Streeter said, highlighting that UK chocolate prices in May were 17.7% higher than the same time last year.
With climate unpredictability and supply risks persisting, analysts say cocoa-related inflation is likely to remain a concern for both consumers and manufacturers well into 2026.