Business
China’s Factory Growth Stalls as Energy Shock and Weak Domestic Demand Weigh on Economy
China’s manufacturing sector showed little sign of expansion in May, with official data indicating activity slipping to its weakest level in three months as global energy disruptions and soft domestic demand continue to test the resilience of the world’s second-largest economy.
According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 50 in May, down from 50.3 in April. The reading sits exactly at the threshold that separates expansion from contraction, reflecting a sector that is no longer clearly growing.
Behind the headline figure, the underlying data pointed to further weakness. New orders dropped to 49.9, slipping back into contraction territory after briefly expanding the previous month. Production eased to 51.2, while raw material inventories fell to 48.6, suggesting firms are becoming more cautious about future output.
Not all segments moved in the same direction. High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing offered some support, rising to 52.9 and 52.1 respectively. Officials said these areas continued to benefit from ongoing industrial upgrading and targeted policy support, even as broader demand softened.
The slowdown comes at a time when global energy markets remain under strain following the war in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. The crisis has pushed energy prices higher and created volatility across supply chains, although China has so far been partially insulated.
Beijing’s large strategic reserves, estimated at around 1.4 billion barrels, along with increased reliance on coal and accelerated investment in renewable energy, have helped soften the immediate impact. Analysts at HSBC noted that China remains “relatively more shielded” compared with other Asian economies due to its diversified energy structure.
However, economists warn that prolonged disruption could still filter through to production costs and industrial activity over time.
The bigger concern for policymakers remains domestic demand. A prolonged downturn in the property sector has weakened household confidence and spending. Retail sales growth slowed sharply in April, prompting HSBC to cut its 2026 forecast for China’s retail expansion to 2.8%, down from a previous estimate of 5.2%.
While exports have remained relatively resilient—particularly to Europe and Southeast Asia—shipments to the United States have declined over the past year. Analysts say external demand is now doing most of the heavy lifting for Chinese growth.
Beijing has set a 2026 growth target of between 4.5% and 5%, its lowest in decades. Economists at Morgan Stanley say the target remains achievable but caution that global oil volatility and weak consumption will be key risks.
Recent diplomatic engagement between the United States and China has offered some optimism for trade stability, but analysts say any recovery in manufacturing will depend on whether domestic demand can regain momentum in the months ahead.
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Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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