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Economic Uncertainty Over US Tariffs Threatens Eurozone and UK Growth

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Uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs is set to cost the eurozone and UK economies billions over the next two years, according to a recent report by S&P Global. The potential economic fallout cannot be fully offset by increased defence spending, despite upcoming fiscal stimulus measures in Europe.

Eurozone Growth Downgraded Amid Trade Concerns

S&P Global’s latest economic forecast projects that the eurozone economy, valued at €14.6 trillion, will contract by 0.4% of GDP cumulatively in 2025 and 2026 due to trade-related uncertainty. Prior to the recent announcement of 25% tariffs on US car imports, the organization had already downgraded its eurozone growth expectations for 2025 from 1.2% to 0.9%.

Sylvain Broyer, Chief Economist for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) at S&P Global, emphasized that “uncertainty itself is likely to pose a greater risk to the European economy than the tariffs alone.”

While US tariffs could weaken economic recovery, there are some positive indicators. Fiscal stimulus measures in Germany and the broader EU could help drive eurozone GDP growth to 1.4% in 2026. Additionally, confidence in the region is improving due to falling inflation and interest rates, which are strengthening the labour market.

Potential Economic Impact of Tariffs

S&P Global considered multiple scenarios regarding the impact of US tariffs on the eurozone economy. In the worst-case scenario, where all EU exports to the US face a 25% tariff, eurozone GDP growth could be limited to 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

Germany, heavily reliant on US car exports, would be particularly affected. Broyer noted that Germany’s exposure to US car markets is 1.5 times the European average, and tariffs could lower its economic output by 0.1% in 2025.

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Despite these challenges, EU defence spending could provide some economic support. European governments are expected to increase defence budgets by 1% of GDP from 2026 onward, potentially boosting eurozone GDP by 0.1% in 2026, 0.2% in 2027, and 0.3% in 2028.

European Central Bank’s Expected Response

S&P Global anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates once more in 2025, reducing the rate to 2.25% by mid-year. However, it expects the ECB to start raising rates again in the second half of 2026, with two hikes bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.75% by year-end.

Broyer warned that additional risks to the forecast include continued trade uncertainty, potential failures in executing fiscal plans, and economic slowdowns in the US due to rising import costs. However, stronger-than-expected fiscal stimulus could improve confidence and support growth.

UK Growth Forecast Cut Nearly in Half

The UK is also facing economic headwinds. Before the car tariff announcement, S&P Global had already lowered its UK growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.8%, citing persistent inflation, weak export volumes, and restrictive monetary policy.

Marion Amiot, Chief UK Economist at S&P Global Ratings, highlighted that if the UK cannot avoid the newly imposed 25% tariffs on car exports to the US, it could face an additional 0.2% hit to GDP. “Car exports to the US are the largest source of bilateral goods trade surplus for the UK,” Amiot noted.

The UK’s export sector is struggling due to weak demand in Europe and China, as well as the strong value of the British pound. High energy and labour costs are also limiting competitiveness. “Energy prices are still twice as high today as they were before the energy crisis, so businesses have a lot to absorb,” Amiot explained.

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The Bank of England’s Dilemma

The Bank of England (BoE) faces a challenging economic landscape. While businesses and investors are eager for interest rate cuts, inflation remains a key concern. In its latest meeting, the BoE kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, despite inflation dropping to 2.8% in February.

S&P Global predicts that the BoE will lower rates to 4% by the third quarter of 2025, although it now expects one fewer rate cut than previously forecast. Inflationary pressures are likely to remain a constraint on monetary policy decisions.

Looking ahead, UK economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, with S&P Global projecting a 1.6% GDP increase. “Things are looking up for 2026, with regional growth picking up, interest rates cut by another 50 basis points, and inflation edging back to 2.5%,” the report concluded.

As trade tensions and policy uncertainty continue to shape economic conditions, both the eurozone and the UK must navigate a complex environment, balancing fiscal stimulus with monetary policy adjustments to maintain stability and growth.

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AI Infrastructure Firms Lead European Stock Market to Record Highs in 2026

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European stock markets climbed to fresh record highs this week, driven by strong corporate earnings, improving economic data and growing investor demand for companies supplying technology behind the global artificial intelligence boom.

The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 closed at about 657 points on Wednesday after reaching a new intraday record, extending its winning streak to a third straight session. The EURO STOXX 50, which tracks the eurozone’s largest listed companies, also touched an all-time high. Since the start of 2026, the STOXX Europe 600 has advanced around 10%.

National markets also posted milestones. Germany’s DAX rose above 26,100 for the first time, France’s CAC 40 climbed to a record 8,700, and Italy’s FTSE MIB reached an unprecedented 53,540.

Unlike previous rallies dominated by luxury brands, pharmaceutical companies or banks, this year’s gains have largely been driven by businesses producing semiconductors, chip-testing equipment, advanced electronic components and industrial technologies supporting AI infrastructure.

Investors have also been encouraged by reports of progress in negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation concerns and easing cost pressures for European manufacturers and airlines.

The economic outlook has also improved. Preliminary figures from Eurostat showed the eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter compared with the previous three months, twice the pace expected by economists. Annual economic growth accelerated to 1%, while stronger-than-expected second-quarter corporate earnings added to investor confidence.

Among the year’s strongest performers, France’s Soitec has emerged as the leading stock in the STOXX Europe 600, with its shares soaring 414.5% since January. Investors have backed the semiconductor materials producer on expectations that demand for AI infrastructure will continue to grow despite weaker annual revenue.

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Austria’s AT&S ranked second after its shares surged 343.5%, supported by demand for advanced substrates used in AI servers. The company recently forecast revenue growth of between 30% and 35% for the current financial year.

Other major gainers include Tullow Oil, up 136.4%; ams-OSRAM, which gained 136.2%; and Technoprobe, whose shares climbed 135.1% as demand for semiconductor testing equipment increased.

German semiconductor equipment maker AIXTRON advanced 121%, while STMicroelectronics more than doubled with a gain of 105.7% following signs that the global semiconductor market is recovering.

Italian engineering company Saipem rose 75.8% on the back of stronger offshore energy investment, while Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International climbed 67.6% after reporting improved profits outside Russia. Steel producer ArcelorMittal rounded out the top 10 with a 65.3% gain, supported by stronger profitability and European trade protections.

The performance of these companies reflects a broader shift in European markets, where suppliers of advanced technology have become central to investor interest. As spending on AI data centres, semiconductor manufacturing and digital infrastructure continues to expand, technology-focused industrial companies are increasingly shaping the direction of Europe’s equity markets.

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TotalEnergies Expands European Renewable Portfolio with Shell Deal and KKR Partnership

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French energy company TotalEnergies has agreed to acquire Shell’s onshore renewable energy business in Europe, strengthening its position in the region’s fast-growing clean energy market while also announcing the partial sale of another renewable portfolio to US investment firm KKR.

The company said it had reached an agreement to purchase Shell’s European onshore renewable assets for an undisclosed amount. The acquisition includes about four gigawatts of electricity generation capacity, made up largely of solar and wind projects that are either operating or under construction in Italy and the Netherlands. The package also includes a pipeline of solar, wind and battery storage developments in Italy, Britain and Spain.

Although neither company disclosed the purchase price, a source familiar with the transaction told AFP the deal is valued at several hundred million euros.

The acquisition is expected to expand TotalEnergies’ renewable energy footprint across Europe as governments continue investing in cleaner energy sources and utilities increase their focus on reducing carbon emissions.

At the same time, TotalEnergies announced a separate transaction involving part of its existing renewable portfolio. The company will sell a 50 percent stake in a collection of wind and solar assets located in Germany, Spain, France and Poland to US investment firm KKR.

The agreement values that portfolio at approximately €1.8 billion ($2.1 billion). The assets included in the sale represent around 1.2 gigawatts of electricity production capacity.

Stephane Michel, President for Gas, Renewables and Power at TotalEnergies, said the two transactions support the company’s long-term strategy by balancing investment with capital management.

“These two transactions enable us to optimise our capital allocation in renewables while continuing to deploy our Integrated Power strategy,” Michel said in a statement.

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The latest deals reflect a broader trend among major energy companies as they reshape their portfolios to meet growing demand for renewable electricity while maintaining financial flexibility.

Following the acquisition of Shell’s renewable operations, TotalEnergies said it will have close to 10 gigawatts of renewable electricity production either already operating or under construction across Europe. The company also reported having an additional 27 gigawatts of renewable projects currently under development.

The expansion comes as Europe continues to accelerate investment in renewable energy infrastructure to strengthen energy security and meet climate targets. Solar, wind and battery storage projects have become central to the region’s transition away from fossil fuels, attracting increased interest from both energy companies and institutional investors.

With the Shell acquisition and the KKR partnership, TotalEnergies is positioning itself to expand its renewable generation capacity while sharing investment costs on selected assets, allowing it to continue growing its clean energy business across key European markets.

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European Minimum Wage Rankings Shift When Purchasing Power Is Taken Into Account

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Minimum wage levels across Europe present a different picture when adjusted for purchasing power, with the latest figures showing that workers in several countries have seen their earnings lose value as inflation outpaced wage increases during the first half of 2026.

New data released by Eurostat for July 2026 show that only eight of 29 European countries raised their statutory minimum wages between January and July. During the same period, consumer inflation across the eurozone reached 3.2 per cent, reducing the real value of wages in many countries where minimum pay remained unchanged.

In nominal terms, Luxembourg continues to offer the highest gross monthly minimum wage in Europe at €2,771. It is followed by Ireland (€2,391), Germany (€2,343), the Netherlands (€2,338) and Belgium (€2,234). France ranks just below this group with a monthly minimum wage of €1,867.

At the opposite end of the scale, Bulgaria has the lowest statutory minimum wage among European Union member states at €620 per month. When EU candidate countries are included, Ukraine records the lowest monthly minimum wage at €169, followed by Moldova at €313.

More than half of the countries included in the data have minimum wages below €1,000 per month, although seven of those nations are EU candidates.

The rankings change noticeably after adjusting for purchasing power standards (PPS), which measure how much goods and services workers can actually afford in their home countries.

Germany moves to the top position with a minimum wage valued at 2,164 PPS, ahead of Luxembourg at 2,108 PPS, the Netherlands at 2,023 PPS, Belgium at 1,922 PPS and Ireland at 1,756 PPS.

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Within the European Union, Estonia records the lowest minimum wage in purchasing power terms at 935 PPS, narrowly below Latvia’s 938 PPS. Bulgaria and Turkey also remain below the 1,000 PPS mark.

Several countries improve significantly when living costs are considered. Romania records the largest rise, moving from 20th place in nominal rankings to 12th in purchasing power terms. North Macedonia climbs from 24th to 16th, while Serbia, Croatia and Bulgaria also move higher in the adjusted rankings.

By contrast, Estonia experiences the biggest decline, dropping from 16th place in nominal terms to 26th after purchasing power adjustments. Latvia, Czechia and Cyprus also fall several positions.

Only eight countries increased minimum wages during the first half of 2026. North Macedonia recorded the largest increase at 6.9 per cent, followed closely by Romania and Estonia, both at 6.8 per cent. Belgium raised minimum wages by 5.8 per cent, Greece by 4.5 per cent, Luxembourg by 2.5 per cent, France by 2.4 per cent and the Netherlands by 1.9 per cent.

Countries that did not adjust minimum wages faced greater pressure from inflation. Malta recorded inflation of 8.2 per cent during the period, followed by Cyprus at 5.4 per cent and the Netherlands at 4.7 per cent.

Turkey remains a notable case, with inflation reaching 17.8 per cent between December 2025 and June 2026. Because the country now updates its minimum wage only once each year, many low-income workers have experienced a sharp decline in purchasing power despite substantial increases introduced in recent years. Nearly 40 per cent of Turkish workers earn the minimum wage, one of the highest proportions in Europe.

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Five European Union countries — Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Austria and Finland — continue to operate without a statutory national minimum wage, relying instead on collective bargaining agreements to determine pay levels across different sectors.

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