Business

Economic Uncertainty Over US Tariffs Threatens Eurozone and UK Growth

Published

1 year ago

March 29, 2025

RTX

Uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs is set to cost the eurozone and UK economies billions over the next two years, according to a recent report by S&P Global. The potential economic fallout cannot be fully offset by increased defence spending, despite upcoming fiscal stimulus measures in Europe.

Eurozone Growth Downgraded Amid Trade Concerns

S&P Global’s latest economic forecast projects that the eurozone economy, valued at €14.6 trillion, will contract by 0.4% of GDP cumulatively in 2025 and 2026 due to trade-related uncertainty. Prior to the recent announcement of 25% tariffs on US car imports, the organization had already downgraded its eurozone growth expectations for 2025 from 1.2% to 0.9%.

Sylvain Broyer, Chief Economist for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) at S&P Global, emphasized that “uncertainty itself is likely to pose a greater risk to the European economy than the tariffs alone.”

While US tariffs could weaken economic recovery, there are some positive indicators. Fiscal stimulus measures in Germany and the broader EU could help drive eurozone GDP growth to 1.4% in 2026. Additionally, confidence in the region is improving due to falling inflation and interest rates, which are strengthening the labour market.

Potential Economic Impact of Tariffs

S&P Global considered multiple scenarios regarding the impact of US tariffs on the eurozone economy. In the worst-case scenario, where all EU exports to the US face a 25% tariff, eurozone GDP growth could be limited to 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

Germany, heavily reliant on US car exports, would be particularly affected. Broyer noted that Germany’s exposure to US car markets is 1.5 times the European average, and tariffs could lower its economic output by 0.1% in 2025.

Despite these challenges, EU defence spending could provide some economic support. European governments are expected to increase defence budgets by 1% of GDP from 2026 onward, potentially boosting eurozone GDP by 0.1% in 2026, 0.2% in 2027, and 0.3% in 2028.

European Central Bank’s Expected Response

S&P Global anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates once more in 2025, reducing the rate to 2.25% by mid-year. However, it expects the ECB to start raising rates again in the second half of 2026, with two hikes bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.75% by year-end.

Broyer warned that additional risks to the forecast include continued trade uncertainty, potential failures in executing fiscal plans, and economic slowdowns in the US due to rising import costs. However, stronger-than-expected fiscal stimulus could improve confidence and support growth.

UK Growth Forecast Cut Nearly in Half

The UK is also facing economic headwinds. Before the car tariff announcement, S&P Global had already lowered its UK growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.8%, citing persistent inflation, weak export volumes, and restrictive monetary policy.

Marion Amiot, Chief UK Economist at S&P Global Ratings, highlighted that if the UK cannot avoid the newly imposed 25% tariffs on car exports to the US, it could face an additional 0.2% hit to GDP. “Car exports to the US are the largest source of bilateral goods trade surplus for the UK,” Amiot noted.

The UK’s export sector is struggling due to weak demand in Europe and China, as well as the strong value of the British pound. High energy and labour costs are also limiting competitiveness. “Energy prices are still twice as high today as they were before the energy crisis, so businesses have a lot to absorb,” Amiot explained.

The Bank of England’s Dilemma

The Bank of England (BoE) faces a challenging economic landscape. While businesses and investors are eager for interest rate cuts, inflation remains a key concern. In its latest meeting, the BoE kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, despite inflation dropping to 2.8% in February.

S&P Global predicts that the BoE will lower rates to 4% by the third quarter of 2025, although it now expects one fewer rate cut than previously forecast. Inflationary pressures are likely to remain a constraint on monetary policy decisions.

Looking ahead, UK economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, with S&P Global projecting a 1.6% GDP increase. “Things are looking up for 2026, with regional growth picking up, interest rates cut by another 50 basis points, and inflation edging back to 2.5%,” the report concluded.

As trade tensions and policy uncertainty continue to shape economic conditions, both the eurozone and the UK must navigate a complex environment, balancing fiscal stimulus with monetary policy adjustments to maintain stability and growth.

Business

Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist

Published

2 days ago

May 22, 2026

Web Reporter

Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.

European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.

Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.

Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.

Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.

Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.

Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.

Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.

In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.

Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.

Business

Goldman Sachs tapped to lead SpaceX IPO as Musk eyes record-breaking market debut

Published

4 days ago

May 20, 2026

Web Reporter

Goldman Sachs has reportedly secured the lead underwriting role for the anticipated stock market debut of SpaceX, a move that signals preparations are accelerating for what could become the largest initial public offering in history.

According to sources cited by CNBC, the aerospace and artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk is expected to move ahead with a public listing later this year at a valuation of at least $1.25 trillion.

Such a valuation would place SpaceX among the world’s most valuable publicly traded companies immediately after listing, potentially ranking ahead of Tesla, another company led by Musk.

The planned flotation is also expected to further boost Musk’s personal fortune and could make him the first person to reach trillionaire status, according to market analysts.

Reports suggest the company is considering an unusual structure for the offering that would reserve a significant portion of shares for individual investors. SpaceX is said to be exploring plans to allocate as much as 30 percent of IPO shares to retail buyers, a move that would give smaller investors broader access to one of the most highly anticipated stock offerings in recent years.

Large technology IPOs are typically dominated by institutional investors such as hedge funds and pension firms, making the proposed retail allocation notable within the investment industry.

Analysts said much of SpaceX’s valuation growth has been driven by its satellite internet business, Starlink, which has rapidly expanded its global subscriber base and established a recurring revenue stream.

The company also increased its exposure to artificial intelligence earlier this year through an all-stock deal involving xAI, another Musk-controlled business. The transaction reportedly valued SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion, creating a combined private valuation of $1.25 trillion.

The expected listing comes at a time when global IPO markets are beginning to recover after several years of weak activity caused by higher interest rates and volatility in technology stocks.

Recent enthusiasm around AI-related firms has revived investor appetite for major public offerings. Last week, AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems debuted on the Nasdaq and ended trading with a valuation near $95 billion, strengthening expectations for more large-scale technology listings in 2026.

For Goldman Sachs, landing the lead role in the SpaceX offering would represent one of the most prestigious deals in modern Wall Street history. Competition among major investment banks for high-profile technology listings has intensified as firms seek to secure lucrative underwriting fees and strengthen relationships with fast-growing AI and technology companies.

Neither SpaceX nor Goldman Sachs has publicly confirmed the reports.

Business

Greek Stocks Stage Remarkable Comeback After Years of Financial Turmoil

Published

5 days ago

May 19, 2026

Web Reporter

A decade after Greece’s financial crisis pushed its banking system to the brink and wiped out most of the country’s stock market value, Athens has emerged as one of the world’s strongest-performing equity markets, outperforming major global indices including the Nasdaq 100 over the past five years.

The recovery marks a dramatic reversal for a country once viewed as the eurozone’s biggest financial risk. In 2015, Greece imposed capital controls, shut its banks and froze trading on the Athens Stock Exchange as fears of sovereign default shook global markets. At the height of the crisis, cash withdrawals were limited to €60 a day and Greek government debt had been downgraded to junk status by major ratings agencies.

By February 2016, the Athens Composite Index had fallen more than 90 percent from its 2007 peak, while Greek banking shares lost nearly all their value.

Today, the picture looks very different.

The Athens Composite Index has returned about 146 percent over the past five years on a total-return basis, outpacing the Nasdaq 100, which gained around 116 percent during the same period. Greece’s rebound has been driven by sweeping banking reforms, stronger public finances and renewed investor confidence.

Greek banks played a central role in the recovery. Lenders including National Bank of Greece, Eurobank, Piraeus Bank and Alpha Bank spent years dealing with enormous volumes of bad loans accumulated during the debt crisis. At one point, nearly half of all loans on their books were classified as non-performing.

The clean-up accelerated under the government-backed Hercules asset protection scheme, which allowed banks to remove billions of euros in troubled loans from their balance sheets. Improved profitability, stronger deposits and tighter cost controls followed.

By 2025, the country’s four biggest banks had collectively posted profits close to €5 billion, with several restoring shareholder payouts and share buybacks.

At the same time, Greece carried out major tax and fiscal reforms under international supervision. Digital tax collection systems boosted compliance rates, while government finances steadily improved. Greece recorded primary budget surpluses in both 2024 and 2025, helping reduce its debt burden sharply from pandemic-era highs.

The recovery also prompted credit rating agencies to restore Greece to investment-grade status for the first time in more than a decade. Moody’s became the last major agency to do so in 2025.

International investors have increasingly returned to Greek assets, encouraged by still-attractive valuations compared with other European markets. Shares in some Greek banks have risen roughly 500 percent over the last five years, though many still trade at lower earnings multiples than their European peers.

Athens also received a major boost after Euronext completed its acquisition of the Greek stock exchange in late 2025, increasing the visibility of Greek companies among international investors and index funds.

Despite the turnaround, challenges remain. Greece’s economy is still heavily reliant on tourism, inflation remains elevated and officials warn that tensions in the Middle East could affect growth and energy prices.

Even so, Greece’s transformation from financial crisis symbol to one of Europe’s strongest market recoveries has become one of the most notable turnaround stories in global finance.