Business
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady as Middle East Conflict Clouds Economic Outlook
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive meeting without a move as policymakers weigh rising inflation and growing uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The decision leaves the federal funds rate in a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. While widely expected, the outcome revealed significant divisions within the central bank’s policy-setting committee, underscoring the difficult balancing act facing officials.
In its post-meeting statement, the Fed said recent developments in the Middle East had added to uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook. It noted that inflation remains above target, partly due to higher global energy prices following renewed tensions in the region.
Despite holding rates steady, the central bank signalled that cuts remain possible later this year if inflation eases and economic conditions weaken. Still, the decision was far from unanimous. Three policymakers opposed language suggesting future rate cuts, while one official, Stephen Miran, argued for an immediate reduction.
The dissent marked the highest level of disagreement within the Federal Open Market Committee since 1992, highlighting a widening debate over how best to respond to slowing growth and persistent price pressures.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to step down as chair in May, said the central bank must remain cautious as it navigates a complex economic environment. Inflation has risen to 3.3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target, while recent data show the labour market is losing momentum.
Although unemployment remains relatively low at 4.3%, hiring has slowed considerably in recent months. Policymakers are trying to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched while avoiding unnecessary damage to economic growth.
Powell also indicated that he intends to remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors after his term as chair ends, potentially until early 2028. He cited concerns about maintaining institutional stability amid what he described as mounting political pressure on the central bank.
His decision would temporarily prevent President Donald Trump from appointing another governor immediately, even as Trump’s nominee to succeed Powell as chair, Kevin Warsh, moves closer to confirmation.
Warsh has advocated broad changes to the Fed’s policymaking framework and has expressed support for lower interest rates. However, with inflation still elevated, analysts say any shift toward easier monetary policy may be gradual.
The Fed’s next moves will likely depend on how inflation, employment and energy markets evolve in the coming months. For now, policymakers appear determined to proceed carefully as geopolitical risks and domestic economic challenges continue to shape the outlook.
Business
Debate Grows in Germany Over Using Gold Reserves to Ease Economic Pressures
Business
European Fuel Prices Remain Elevated After Iran Conflict Despite Ceasefire
Business
Global Markets Hold Steady as US-Iran Talks Uncertainty Looms
European markets traded in a narrow range on Tuesday while Asian indices posted gains and oil prices edged higher, as investors kept a close watch on possible negotiations between the United States and Iran ahead of the expiry of a fragile ceasefire.
The current truce is set to end within 48 hours, adding to uncertainty across global financial markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting a key route for global oil shipments and contributing to volatility in energy prices.
Oil markets showed modest gains. US benchmark crude rose about 8.5% from last week’s low to around $86.3 a barrel, while Brent crude climbed roughly 9.5% to near $94.5. The increases reflect ongoing concerns about supply disruptions, even as traders hope diplomatic efforts could stabilise the situation.
In Europe, major indices including the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Stoxx 600 were largely unchanged, moving within a tight range of around 0.2%. National benchmarks such as the FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40 and FTSE MIB also showed little movement.
Asian markets, however, recorded stronger performances, supported by cautious optimism that talks could prevent further escalation. On United States futures markets, Wall Street indicators remained stable, with contracts tied to the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fluctuating within a narrow margin.
Diplomatic efforts are underway, with US representatives including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travelling to Islamabad to pursue a possible agreement. However, there has been no confirmed progress so far.
Donald Trump has expressed confidence that a new deal could surpass the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated under former president Barack Obama. Iranian officials have struck a more cautious tone, with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stating that Tehran would not negotiate under pressure and warning of potential escalation.
Away from geopolitics, corporate developments in the UK also drew attention. Associated British Foods is expected to announce the outcome of a strategic review into a possible separation of its retail arm Primark from its food business. The review, conducted with advisers from Rothschild & Co, is assessing whether a split could improve long-term shareholder value.
The company has faced challenging trading conditions, warning earlier this year of flat sales and declining profits. Rising costs and the broader impact of tensions in the Middle East, including potential increases in petrochemical prices, have added pressure.
With the ceasefire deadline approaching and negotiations still uncertain, markets remain highly sensitive to any developments, balancing hopes for diplomacy against the risk of further disruption.
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