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Bulgaria Heads to Presidential Poll Amid Black Sea Security Concerns and Economic Pressures

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Bulgarians are preparing to vote in a presidential election shaped by concerns over Russia’s war in Ukraine, drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, rising energy costs and persistent inflation.

The election is the first major electoral test for Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party since its victory in parliamentary elections last April. A record 27 candidates are contesting the presidency, although polling suggests the race could be decided in a second round.

Incumbent President Iliana Yotova, backed by Radev’s party, is polling between 41% and 47%, while former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov is attracting between 28% and 31%, according to projections cited during the campaign. Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the far-right Vazrazhdane party, is polling between 10% and 13%.

Yotova supports dialogue with Moscow and opposes military assistance to Ukraine, positions that have placed the country’s relationship with Russia at the centre of the campaign. Gyurov, an economist backed by pro-Western opposition parties, has expressed firm support for Kyiv.

Security concerns have intensified following drone attacks on commercial ships off Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast. The incidents have raised fears that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could create wider risks for the European Union and NATO member, prompting Bulgarian authorities to seek assistance from international partners to strengthen maritime security.

The attacks have also focused attention on the Black Sea’s importance for regional shipping and trade, as governments across Europe assess the potential consequences of the conflict spreading beyond Ukraine.

Economic pressures have been another major issue for voters. Rising energy prices and inflation have increased household expenses, with families in rural communities facing particular difficulties in meeting everyday costs. Candidates have sought to address these concerns as voters weigh the country’s economic prospects alongside national security and foreign policy.

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Yotova became president earlier this year after Radev stepped down to contest the parliamentary elections and subsequently became prime minister. She previously served as vice-president alongside Radev after their election victories in 2016 and 2021.

A former journalist and member of the European Parliament, Yotova would become Bulgaria’s first woman elected president if she wins the presidency in her own right.

Her challenger, Gyurov, is a former deputy governor of Bulgaria’s central bank who served as caretaker prime minister during the first months of 2026. During his time in office, he signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine, underlining his support for closer ties with Kyiv.

Polling stations are scheduled to close at 8pm local time on Sunday, with initial exit polls expected shortly afterwards and preliminary results due on Monday.

Bulgarian election rules require turnout to exceed 50% and a candidate to secure a majority of votes for a first-round victory. Forecasts put turnout below 40%, making a runoff on November 1 likely. The second round would set up a direct contest between the leading candidates and give voters another opportunity to decide the country’s direction on foreign policy, security and economic issues.

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Turkey and Qatar Sign Mutual Defence Pact as Gulf Security Alliances Shift

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Turkey and Qatar have signed a mutual defence agreement to strengthen military cooperation and prepare for potential external attacks, as the Iran war accelerates changes in security arrangements across the Gulf and wider Middle East.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani signed the agreement during a meeting in Istanbul on Friday, where they co-chaired the Supreme Strategic Committee between the two countries. The meeting also produced agreements covering trade, energy, diplomacy, education and culture.

A joint statement said the defence pact was intended to strengthen collective security, support regional stability and establish a common response to an external armed attack against either country or both.

The two sides agreed to consult on security threats and expand cooperation through joint military exercises, defence industry projects and exchanges of military personnel for training.

Erdogan said Turkey and Qatar would continue working to prevent another outbreak of conflict in the Gulf and promote dialogue and peace. His office described the agreement as a new stage in the countries’ close relationship and said it would expand cooperation in defence production.

The leaders also discussed Israel’s attacks on Gaza and the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian territory, efforts to normalise relations in Syria and developments in Libya.

Regional defence partnerships expand

The agreement comes amid a wider reassessment of security arrangements following the war involving Iran. While Gulf governments continue to regard the United States’ military presence as central to their security, Washington’s signals of a broader strategic realignment have encouraged regional countries to strengthen other defence partnerships.

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Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Indonesia have all taken steps towards closer military or defence industry cooperation in recent months.

In August, Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, under which the three countries agreed to support one another if any came under attack. The pact was ratified by the Turkish parliament last week, bringing together NATO member Turkey, Pakistan, which possesses the Muslim world’s only nuclear arsenal, and Saudi Arabia, a major regional military and economic power.

Turkey has said the agreement is not directed against any country and remains open to additional participants, including Egypt.

Pakistan and Kuwait also signed a joint defence and military cooperation agreement in August.

In October, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia signed the Badr multilateral memorandum of understanding, focusing on cooperation in the defence industry.

The latest Turkey-Qatar agreement adds another layer to these emerging arrangements. Its emphasis on consultations, military exercises and defence production reflects efforts by regional governments to strengthen their ability to respond to security threats while maintaining existing international partnerships.

The developments point to a more varied regional security network, with countries pursuing closer bilateral and multilateral ties as uncertainty continues over the Gulf’s future security environment.

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Zelenskyy to Meet Trump Envoys in Dublin as Europe Seeks Role in Ukraine Peace Talks

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to meet US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Dublin on Thursday as diplomatic efforts to end the war with Russia continue.

The meeting is scheduled on the sidelines of the ninth European Political Community (EPC) summit, hosted by Ireland, where leaders from more than 45 countries are gathering to discuss security and other strategic issues.

Witkoff and Kushner are expected to arrive from Moscow after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin. They will brief Zelenskyy on the latest developments in negotiations, following two days of discussions in Abu Dhabi.

Zelenskyy arrived in Dublin on Wednesday evening and met Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin, who expressed solidarity with Ukraine and condemned Russia’s continuing attacks.

Martin described the attacks as “barbarous” and “vile”, praising the Ukrainian people for their courage and resilience.

Zelenskyy thanked European representatives for their involvement in the Abu Dhabi discussions but insisted that Europe must have a direct role in negotiations concerning the continent’s future security arrangements.

“This war is in Ukraine, and ending this war without Europe’s participation would be unjust, and it would be impossible,” he said.

He called on European leaders to agree on a single representative to participate in future negotiations, arguing that a coordinated position was necessary as diplomatic discussions continue in November.

Kushner said in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday that he would seek Putin’s “blessing” for direct European involvement in the talks.

Zelenskyy is also expected to hold bilateral meetings and attend plenary sessions and a Friends of Ukraine gathering co-chaired by Martin and UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

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Security tightened across Dublin

The summit is taking place under heightened security following a series of threats targeting schools, airlines and media organisations. Hoax bomb threats were sent to hundreds of schools in Ireland, the United Kingdom and Italy on Wednesday.

Garda Commissioner Justin Kelly said Irish police were prepared for all eventualities, citing their equipment, training and operational plans.

Several protests are also planned along routes leading to Dublin’s Convention Centre, where the summit is being held. Kelly said police would facilitate peaceful demonstrations but act swiftly if criminal activity occurred.

The EPC was established in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It provides a forum for European leaders, including countries outside the European Union, to discuss shared political and security challenges.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is attending for the first time, alongside Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Swiss President Guy Parmelin. Carney’s participation has been described by an EU official as a sign of Canada’s interest in closer security cooperation with Europe.

This year’s summit, themed “Europe: Strong, Secure and Connected”, will focus on competitiveness, energy security and connectivity. Migration is also expected to feature in discussions, with a joint statement anticipated from Italy, Denmark and the UK.

The meeting will be followed on Friday by an informal gathering of EU leaders, where divisions over Europe’s approach to Ukraine are expected to feature prominently.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni recently criticised the lack of coordination among European countries, urging European Council President António Costa to make Ukraine a priority. She warned that multiple diplomatic initiatives and competing voices risk undermining Europe’s credibility in negotiations with Russia.

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UK Considers Adding eBay and Vinted to Social Media Ban for Under-16s

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The UK government is considering extending its planned social media restrictions for under-16s to online marketplaces eBay and Vinted, amid concerns that their messaging features could expose children to online grooming.

Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said ministers were examining whether the resale platforms should be included in the ban, which is scheduled to take effect in March next year.

Asked on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg whether the government intended to prevent under-16s from using the websites, Nandy said: “We are looking seriously at doing so in order to keep children safe.”

The move follows a report by The Sunday Times that the government was considering adding eBay, Vinted, Depop and Facebook Marketplace to the list of restricted platforms. The newspaper cited concerns that private messaging could allow strangers to contact and groom children.

An eBay spokesperson said the company was committed to providing a safe marketplace for its customers and wanted to understand more about the proposed legislation.

“While the details of the proposed legislation are not yet clear, we look forward to understanding more and continuing to work constructively with the government,” the spokesperson said.

Vinted had not responded to requests for comment.

Both eBay and Vinted already require users to be at least 18. eBay says membership involves entering into a contract, while Vinted’s platform is primarily used to buy and sell second-hand clothing and other fashion items. The company has grown to around 17 million users in the UK.

Scope of the proposed restrictions

The government announced the under-16 social media ban in June, initially identifying 10 major platforms that would be affected. YouTube is also expected to be restricted, although YouTube Kids, its child-focused service, will remain available.

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Ministers have not yet published the complete list of affected services. The proposed rules are intended to cover platforms designed to enable social interaction and allow users to post material.

Restrictions could also apply to services offering livestreaming or features through which strangers can contact children, including some gaming platforms. Roblox, popular among children aged eight to 12, is not expected to face a complete ban, although features such as its chat function could be restricted.

The UK is following Australia’s introduction of similar restrictions last year. Although some children there have found ways to bypass the rules, British ministers have said they intend to adopt a tougher enforcement approach.

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