Business
Germany Set to Approve Major Spending Bill on Defence and Infrastructure
Germany is poised to pass a significant spending bill that will unlock hundreds of billions of euros for defence and infrastructure projects, potentially boosting both the euro and the German stock market. Investors remain optimistic about the fiscal reform, which could support continued market uptrends.
German Markets Surge Ahead of Parliamentary Vote
The German stock market and the euro continued their upward momentum ahead of Tuesday’s parliamentary vote on the spending bill. The proposal, introduced by Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz, aims to exceed the traditional 1% GDP limit on defence spending, allowing the government to allocate approximately €45 billion for military expenditures. Additionally, the bill will establish a €500 billion special fund dedicated to infrastructure development.
Last Friday, Merz secured a crucial agreement with the Green Party on the debt-financed spending package, clearing a major hurdle in the legislative process. With the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens controlling 520 seats in the Bundestag, the coalition comfortably surpasses the two-thirds majority required to amend constitutional laws.
The DAX index rose 0.73% on Monday to 23,154.57, just 1% below its all-time high of 23,419.48 recorded on March 6. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened by 0.43% against the US dollar to 1.0922, holding near a four-month high, despite minor fluctuations during Tuesday’s Asian trading session.
European Defence Stocks See Massive Gains
Defence stocks have surged since mid-February following US President Donald Trump’s decision to initiate peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin while initially excluding the European Union and Ukraine. His move to halt all military aid to Ukraine has prompted the EU to accelerate defence spending.
In early March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed an €800 billion defence budget for the bloc, urging member states to raise military spending by an average of 1.5% of GDP. In response, Merz announced plans to exempt defence spending from Germany’s constitutional debt brake. His proposal received backing from all 27 EU member states at a summit in Brussels on March 6.
The increased focus on defence has propelled major European arms and aerospace stocks to new highs. Shares in German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall have soared 52% month-over-month and 123% year-to-date, repeatedly breaking records. Similarly, BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce Holdings have climbed 42% and 36%, respectively, in 2025.
The Euro Stoxx Aerospace & Defence Index has jumped 33% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the pan-European Stoxx 600’s 8% gain. Meanwhile, Germany’s benchmark DAX has risen 16% this year, making it one of the best-performing global indices.
Euro Poised for Further Gains Amid Fiscal Reform
The euro has appreciated by 7% against the US dollar since its January low, driven by optimism over increased European defence spending. The massive fiscal injection into defence and infrastructure is expected to revitalize Germany’s economy and support the euro’s strength.
Conversely, the US dollar has weakened against major G10 currencies amid escalating global trade tensions. Analysts predict further declines due to rising economic uncertainty in the United States. “I still view any USD rallies as selling opportunities and would be fading any USD upside across the G10 board,” wrote Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone London.
The upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday will be a key moment for currency markets. Any dovish signals from the central bank could exert additional pressure on the dollar, potentially driving the euro even higher.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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