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Germany’s Economic Sentiment Hits 2-Year High as Eurozone Trade Surplus Shrinks

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Germany’s economic sentiment reached its highest level in two years, but the eurozone’s trade surplus saw a sharp decline, according to economic data released on Tuesday. While EU exports to the US surged ahead of potential tariffs from former US President Donald Trump, the trade deficit with China widened significantly.

The latest trade figures indicate that European and US businesses are accelerating shipments to mitigate the impact of possible tariff hikes, driving a sharp increase in transatlantic trade volumes.

German Economic Sentiment Soars

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index surged to 51.6 points in March 2025, up from 26 points in January, surpassing market expectations of 48.1. This marks the highest level of economic optimism since January 2023.

“Economic expectations are improving considerably again in March, with a strongly increasing ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment,” said ZEW President Achim Wambach. “The brighter mood is likely due to positive signals regarding future German fiscal policy, including the agreement on the multi-billion-euro financial package for the federal budget. In particular, prospects for metal and steel manufacturers, as well as the mechanical engineering sector, have improved. Last but not least, the European Central Bank’s sixth consecutive interest rate cut means favorable financing conditions for private households and companies.”

The broader eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index also rose, climbing 15.6 points to 39.8, reaching its highest level in eight months.

Germany’s Fiscal Expansion Plan

Earlier this month, Germany announced a major fiscal expansion to strengthen its defense capabilities and stimulate economic growth, marking a shift from its traditional fiscal conservatism. The initiative includes a €500 billion infrastructure fund over 12 years, with €100 billion allocated to climate and economic transformation projects. Additionally, Germany plans to ease its constitutionally mandated debt brake to allow increased borrowing, particularly for defense spending. These measures are expected to receive approval from the Bundestag this week.

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Eurozone Trade Surplus Declines Sharply

The eurozone’s trade surplus in goods plummeted to just €1 billion in January 2025, a drastic decline from €10.6 billion in the same period last year, according to Eurostat data. The figure also marked a significant drop from December’s €15.4 billion surplus.

The downturn was driven by weaker performance in machinery, vehicles, and other manufactured goods. The surplus in machinery and vehicles fell from €16.5 billion in December to €7.4 billion in January, while other manufactured goods shifted from a €1.2 billion surplus to a €4.6 billion deficit. The European Union as a whole also saw its trade balance turn negative, moving from a €15.9 billion surplus in December 2024 to a €5.4 billion deficit in January 2025.

EU Trade with US Surges Ahead of Tariff Threats

A key highlight in the trade data was a sharp rise in European exports to the United States. EU exports to the US reached €46.7 billion in January, marking a 16% year-on-year increase, while imports from the US also grew by 7.5% to €30.5 billion. The surge suggests that businesses are frontloading shipments ahead of proposed US tariff hikes.

The Trump administration has announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on all major trading partners starting April 2, 2025. Additionally, Trump has specifically threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European wines and other alcoholic beverages unless the EU removes its existing 50% tariff on American whiskey.

EU’s Trade Deficit with China Widens

While trade with the US showed resilience, the EU’s trade relationship with China continued to deteriorate. Imports from China surged by 19.2% year-on-year to €44.8 billion, while exports to the country fell by 13.3% to €14 billion.

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The growing trade imbalance with China raises concerns about the EU’s dependence on Chinese goods and the competitiveness of European exports in the region. As economic conditions fluctuate, policymakers will need to navigate these challenges while maintaining stability within the eurozone’s trade landscape.

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France Considers Exit Tax on Crypto Gains and €10,000 Fine for Undeclared Wallets

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French lawmakers have backed proposals to tax unrealised cryptocurrency gains when wealthy investors leave the country, alongside fines of up to €10,000 for failing to declare certain self-custody wallets.

The measures were approved by the National Assembly’s finance committee last week as part of discussions on the government’s 2027 budget. However, the proposals must be submitted again for votes in the full Assembly after the committee rejected the budget bill’s revenue section.

The proposed exit tax would extend France’s existing rules for shares and other securities to digital assets, including Bitcoin. It is scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027, if approved.

Under current rules, people who have lived in France for at least six of the previous 10 years can be taxed on unrealised gains when they move abroad, provided their shares and other securities exceed €800,000 in total value.

The amendment, introduced by Communist MP Nicolas Sansu and 16 left-wing colleagues, would apply the same threshold to household cryptocurrency holdings, including assets held on foreign exchanges or in wallets controlled directly by their owners.

Tax payments would be deferred for moves within the European Union and certain other countries. The tax could also be cancelled if the assets were retained for between two and five years.

The proposal does not specify a tax rate for crypto-assets or explain how social charges would apply, leaving the potential bill for departing investors unclear.

Supporters argue that cryptocurrency should not receive more favourable treatment than conventional investments of equivalent value.

Proposed reporting rules for crypto wallets

The committee also backed a proposal by centrist MP Charles de Courson requiring taxpayers to declare self-custody wallets worth a combined €100,000 or more at the end of the year. Failure to comply could attract fines of up to €10,000. Existing rules generally require the declaration of cryptocurrency accounts held abroad, rather than self-custody wallets.

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Supporters cited concerns about tax compliance and fraud, while cryptocurrency advocates warned that creating a register of holdings could expose investors to security risks if the information were leaked.

The concerns come amid a rise in crypto-related kidnappings in France. Police recorded more than 40 such cases between January and mid-April, following around 30 during all of 2025.

Lawmakers also backed a separate amendment to tax exchanges of cryptocurrencies for stablecoins, which are digital tokens pegged to currencies such as the US dollar. Under current rules, tax generally applies when cryptocurrency is converted into conventional money or used for purchases.

Other measures approved by the committee would allow investors to offset cryptocurrency losses against gains for 10 years and increase a proposed fine for failing to provide documents requested by tax authorities from €10,000 to €50,000 per request.

The committee rejected proposals for a broader wealth tax covering crypto-assets and a plan to exempt up to €1,000 a year in cryptocurrency payments from tax.

Budget faces parliamentary hurdles

The committee rejected the revenue section of the 2027 budget on Friday by 31 votes to three. As a result, its amendments must be resubmitted when the full National Assembly begins considering the original bill.

Lawmakers are due to vote again on the revenue section on October 20 and on the complete bill on November 17, before it moves to the Senate. Parliament must pass the budget by December 10, after which the government can enact it by ordinance.

The minority government faces a difficult parliamentary process amid political uncertainty and rising borrowing costs, with France’s 10-year government bond yield briefly exceeding 5% this month for the first time since 2002.

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Macron to Push ‘Made in Europe’ Agenda at Final Paris Motor Show Visit

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French President Emmanuel Macron will visit the Paris Motor Show on Monday for the final time during his presidency, using the event to renew calls for European public support to favour vehicles and components manufactured within the European Union.

The biennial exhibition, one of the world’s oldest and most popular motor shows, provides Macron with an opportunity to review his government’s record in the automotive sector and promote his ambition to strengthen European manufacturing against growing competition from China.

The French presidency considers the automotive industry central to the country’s manufacturing base, supporting around 400,000 direct jobs. Officials point to progress in electric vehicle production and the development of a domestic battery industry since Macron took office in 2017.

At the beginning of his presidency, France had no battery factories and electric car production remained limited, relying heavily on the Renault Zoe. The country has since opened four battery plants in the north, although domestic production still falls short of demand.

According to France’s national statistics agency Insee, 331,000 new electric passenger cars were registered in the country in 2025, compared with 216,000 produced domestically. Around 60% of electric vehicles manufactured in France are exported, particularly to the United Kingdom and other European markets. As a result, only 26% of new electric cars purchased in France are made within the country.

The government has set a target of producing two million electric vehicles annually by 2030, a goal that remains distant.

Macron’s visit will follow a dinner at the Élysée Palace on Sunday evening, attended by around 60 representatives from the automotive industry, including manufacturers, suppliers, battery producers and rare-earth companies. The presidency said Chinese manufacturers would not be represented at the dinner, although several Chinese brands are expected to exhibit at the motor show.

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On Monday, Macron is scheduled to visit the stands of Stellantis, Renault and automotive supplier Valeo before taking part in a roundtable discussion on autonomous vehicles.

France wants the EU to make public subsidies more dependent on production within the bloc’s 27 member states, covering the entire supply chain from batteries to spare parts. Paris argues that Europe must strengthen its position as China expands its export capacity.

The French government remains open to Chinese investment that brings advanced technology and transfers expertise to Europe. However, it opposes factories that carry out only final assembly in Europe while sourcing most components elsewhere.

Winning German support remains a challenge. Germany exports substantially more vehicles than France and has major commercial interests in China, leaving Berlin concerned that tougher European restrictions could trigger retaliation against its manufacturers.

Reports that France and Germany had reached a deal linking stricter European production rules to changes in the EU’s 2035 emissions targets were rejected by the Élysée, which said discussions were continuing.

After a press day featuring Macron’s visit, the Paris Motor Show will open to the public from October 13 to 18 at the Porte de Versailles exhibition centre.

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EU May Need to Cut Gas Consumption by 7% This Winter as Reserves Hit Record Low

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The European Union may need to reduce gas consumption by 7% this winter as storage levels fall to their lowest for this time of year on record and the war involving Iran keeps energy prices elevated, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

The US-based energy research organisation said EU gas storage facilities were about 72.4% full on October 3, the lowest level recorded for this point in the year since 2011. The shortfall could leave the bloc with 7.3 billion cubic metres less gas available from storage between November and March than during the previous winter.

Combined with the EU’s planned complete ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports from January 2027, the lower reserves could require member states to use about 14 billion cubic metres less gas than last winter.

IEEFA said the situation did not mean European storage facilities would run empty. However, lower reserves can reduce the rate at which gas is released, potentially creating supply difficulties during a prolonged cold spell late in winter. Lower storage levels would also leave Europe needing to purchase larger and potentially more expensive volumes of gas next summer.

The organisation estimated that replacing the storage shortfall with additional imports rather than reducing demand would cost about €3 billion, approximately 12% more than the same volume would have cost last year.

The energy market has faced additional pressure since the war involving Iran began on February 28, disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade.

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Dutch Title Transfer Facility futures, Europe’s main gas price benchmark, reached €84.50 per megawatt-hour in mid-September, their highest level since 2022. Prices climbed above €80 on Thursday before easing to around €78 early on Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said imported fossil fuels had cost the EU an additional €100 billion since the end of February, without providing any additional energy in return.

Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has urged governments to continue limiting consumption amid exceptionally low storage levels. European gas network operators also warned that a severe winter could leave the bloc facing a supply shortfall of up to 15%.

Governments have begun taking measures to secure supplies. The Netherlands approved up to €993 million in June to support reserve building by state-owned company EBN. Germany instructed state-owned importer SEFE to store eight terawatt-hours of gas by December 15, while Spain has increased the volume of liquefied natural gas held at its import terminals by more than 25%.

EU winter gas consumption fell from around 222 billion cubic metres in 2021-22 to 185 billion in 2022-23 following a surge in prices and emergency conservation measures. Consumption subsequently recovered to approximately 200 billion cubic metres in each of the past two winters.

IEEFA said this suggested that further reductions in demand could become increasingly difficult.

The organisation warned against responding primarily by expanding storage infrastructure, arguing that this could prolong dependence on fossil fuels. Instead, it recommended greater investment in renewable energy, heat pumps, industrial electrification and energy-efficiency improvements to reduce winter demand.

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