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2024: A Year of Democratic Upheaval as Voters Reject Incumbents

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The year 2024, heralded as the “year of democracy,” may be remembered instead as the year incumbents faced unprecedented voter backlash. In a historic first, every governing party in developed countries lost vote share during elections this year, according to a Financial Times analysis.

Once considered a cornerstone of political advantage, incumbency is losing its protective edge. The adage “better the devil you know” appears to have given way to “throw the rascals out.” This shift has upended the political landscape, with voters increasingly turning away from sitting governments.

Global Volatility Hits Wealthy Democracies

For decades, wealthy democracies were marked by political stability, with power alternating between mainstream parties over extended periods. Emerging democracies, in contrast, saw more frequent shifts in power due to weaker party systems and insurgent challengers.

However, this distinction is fading. Ben Ansell, a professor at the University of Oxford, noted that volatility now defines even the most developed democracies. “They’ve become like Latin American democracies or like India used to be. Now it hurts to be an incumbent. That’s quite new,” he told CNN.

The Inflation Factor

One of the primary culprits for this year’s anti-incumbent wave was inflation. Following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global inflation soared to levels unseen since the 1990s, driven by supply chain disruptions and rebounding demand.

The economic toll, though rooted in global factors, landed squarely on the shoulders of national governments. “Unemployment weakens governments, but inflation kills them,” Ansell observed. The political fallout has been severe, with voters across continents holding leaders accountable for rising living costs.

Yet, some nations bucked the trend. In Mexico, the Morena party maintained power by implementing price controls on basic groceries, a measure renewed in 2023. While controversial among mainstream economists, such interventions may offer a blueprint for combating inflation’s political consequences.

A Changing Voter Landscape

Inflation alone does not account for the upheaval. Structural and cultural shifts are also driving volatility. Roberto Foa of the University of Cambridge highlighted the erosion of partisan loyalty, with voters increasingly switching allegiances between elections.

This fluidity has paved the way for unconventional political actors who defy traditional norms. Vicente Valentim of the European University Institute noted that previously stigmatized views, such as election denialism and anti-immigration sentiment, are becoming normalized.

Simultaneously, voters have adopted a consumer-like approach to politics, demanding instant satisfaction and greater choice. As Ansell remarked, the era of choosing between two dominant parties feels “mid-20th century” in today’s world of boundless consumer options.

The Road Ahead

While rising inflation has fueled voter discontent, stabilization may offer some respite for future incumbents. However, the cultural and structural forces reshaping democracies suggest that political volatility may remain the norm for years to come.

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Chile’s President Makes Historic Visit to South Pole

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President Gabriel Boric of Chile has become the first Latin American leader to visit the South Pole, marking a significant milestone for the region. The two-day expedition, named Operation Pole Star III, underscores Chile’s commitment to scientific research and environmental monitoring in Antarctica, according to the Chilean government.

The journey began in Santiago, with Boric accompanied by scientists, military commanders, and government officials. After stopping in Punta Arenas, a southern Chilean city, the delegation proceeded to the U.S.-operated Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, Chilean broadcaster Televisión Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported.

Expanding Antarctic Research

Chile, one of seven countries with territorial claims in Antarctica, is a signatory to the Antarctic Treaty, which mandates the use of the continent for peaceful and scientific purposes only. While the country has traditionally focused its research in Antarctica’s northern regions, the Boric administration aims to extend activities to the continent’s western areas.

“This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American president has visited the South Pole,” Boric said during the trip, as reported by TVN.

A Commitment to Science and Sovereignty

President Boric emphasized that the visit symbolizes Chile’s dedication to preserving Antarctica as a “continent of science and peace.” He also highlighted its importance in reinforcing Chile’s sovereignty claims in the region.

“From here, everything is north. There are only 12 flags flying, one of which is Chile’s. That is a source of pride,” Boric said, referring to the nations that signed the original Antarctic Treaty, including Argentina, Australia, and the United States.

Boric shared a video on social media platform X, formerly Twitter, from the South Pole, wearing a red jacket, black hat, and sunglasses. “Good morning from Chilean Antarctica, where everything begins,” he wrote.

Environmental Focus

The visit was part of Chile’s broader effort to enhance environmental monitoring of pollutants in Antarctica, a key component of Operation Pole Star III. Scientists accompanying the president aim to gather data to support ongoing research into the impacts of climate change and human activity on the fragile ecosystem.

Chile’s government hopes the trip will further bolster the country’s role in Antarctic research while fostering international collaboration under the principles of the Antarctic Treaty.

President Boric’s historic visit not only cements Chile’s place in Antarctic exploration but also reaffirms the continent’s unique status as a global hub for scientific inquiry and peaceful cooperation.

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Azerbaijan Airlines Crash in Kazakhstan Sparks External Attack Allegations

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New evidence suggests the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft that crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, killing 38 people, may have been the target of an external attack.

Photos released by Azerbaijani media outlet AnewZ reveal shrapnel marks on the plane’s fuselage, raising suspicions of a mid-air assault. The aircraft, en route from Baku to Grozny, Russia, was diverted before crashing in Kazakhstan. An international investigation into the crash’s causes is ongoing, involving experts from Brazil, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

International Investigation Underway

The Brazilian Air Force, responsible for analyzing the plane’s black box data, confirmed that nine foreign investigators are collaborating with its experts at the Air Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center in Brasília. Analysis of the cockpit voice and flight data recorders is expected to shed light on the crash’s final moments.

Azerbaijan Accuses Russia

Azerbaijan’s President, Ilham Aliyev, alleged the aircraft was struck by fire from the ground over Russia, possibly rendered uncontrollable by electronic warfare. He criticized Moscow for attempting to “hush up” the incident and expressed dissatisfaction with the explanations provided by Russian officials.

Aliyev’s accusations gained traction following reports that the crash coincided with Russian air defense operations near Grozny, allegedly targeting a Ukrainian drone strike.

Putin Apologizes, Stops Short of Admitting Responsibility

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an apology to Aliyev, describing the crash as a “tragic incident.” However, the Kremlin has not acknowledged responsibility. Officials confirmed that air defense systems were active near Grozny at the time, reportedly to counter a Ukrainian drone attack.

Mounting Allegations

Claims that the aircraft was shot down by Russian air defenses have fueled tensions. The Kremlin’s admission of nearby military activity has done little to quell speculation, as investigators seek to determine whether shrapnel found on the plane is consistent with missile strikes or other external factors.

The crash adds strain to already fraught relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, with both countries demanding accountability.

As investigators analyze the black box data, the international aviation community watches closely, awaiting clarity on the incident’s cause. Meanwhile, the tragedy remains a poignant reminder of the volatility in regions affected by ongoing geopolitical tensions.

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Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds Amid Violations

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A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered on November 27, has held for over a month despite repeated violations and slow progress on its terms. Analysts suggest the truce is likely to persist, offering relief to thousands displaced by the conflict, even as challenges remain ahead of the January deadline.

The agreement required Hezbollah to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw from the region, transferring control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers within 60 days. While Hezbollah has largely halted rocket attacks, Israel has withdrawn from only two of approximately 60 towns it occupies in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces continue targeted strikes, citing Hezbollah’s alleged attempts to move weapons and prepare rocket launches.

Ceasefire Implementation and Violations

Both sides have accused the other of violating the truce. Lebanon filed a complaint with the UN Security Council, reporting 816 Israeli attacks between November 27 and December 22. Meanwhile, Israel alleges Hezbollah has committed hundreds of violations, including moving ammunition and launching rockets.

The ambiguity in the ceasefire terms has contributed to its durability, according to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The agreement’s flexibility allows it to adapt to changing circumstances,” he noted.

Challenges in Withdrawal

Israel’s withdrawal has been slower than expected, with military officials citing the lack of sufficient Lebanese forces to take over. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is awaiting Israel’s withdrawal before deploying troops. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli spokesperson, emphasized security concerns as the priority.

The 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal is not seen as rigid. Experts, including Harel Chorev of Tel Aviv University, suggest Lebanon will need to mobilize significantly more troops before a full transfer can occur.

Hezbollah’s Position and Future Risks

Weakened by 14 months of conflict and the loss of key supply routes following the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah appears reluctant to resume hostilities. Its Secretary General, Naim Kassem, recently stated the group is refraining from action to allow the Lebanese state to enforce the agreement.

Despite this, former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni warned that if Israeli forces remain beyond the deadline, guerrilla-style attacks by Hezbollah or other groups could occur. Even if Israel withdraws ground troops, sporadic airstrikes may continue, similar to its operations in Syria.

As the ceasefire approaches its January deadline, its durability will depend on the ability of both sides to navigate the complex terms of the agreement and avoid further escalation.

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