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France Faces Economic and Political Challenges Amid Growth Forecast Downgrade

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France’s central bank has revised its economic growth forecast downward, predicting a 0.9% expansion in 2025, a reduction from the 1.2% anticipated in September. The updated figures, released Monday evening, also forecast growth of 1.1% in 2024 and 1.3% in both 2026 and 2027.

The downgrade comes amid significant political upheaval and budgetary gridlock, which have raised concerns among economists and investors. Wages are expected to outpace inflation by 2027, but the near-term outlook remains clouded by fiscal uncertainty.

Credit Rating Downgrade

France’s fraught political environment recently prompted credit ratings agency Moody’s to downgrade the nation’s credit score to Aa3. The downgrade reflects apprehension over a ballooning national deficit, projected by Moody’s to hit 6.3% of GDP in 2025.

France has already exceeded the European Union’s deficit cap of 3% in 2024, triggering disciplinary measures from the bloc. However, the central bank offers a slightly more optimistic view, forecasting the public deficit to land between 5% and 5.5% next year.

Government Collapse Intensifies Uncertainty

Adding to the instability, France’s government collapsed earlier this month following a dispute over the 2025 budget. Former Prime Minister Michel Barnier was ousted in early December and replaced by François Bayrou.

The new administration is now racing to draft emergency legislation to prevent a government shutdown, as no budget bill has been passed for 2025. The central bank has warned that such emergency measures could exacerbate next year’s deficit and necessitate a €4 billion increase in income taxes.

Political Divisions and Economic Credibility

The French National Assembly remains deeply divided following a controversial snap election earlier this year, in which no party secured a majority. Prime Minister Bayrou now faces the challenge of bridging these divisions to stabilize the political landscape and address the budget crisis.

François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, has called on lawmakers to set aside partisan disputes for the sake of the nation’s credibility. “Political unity is essential to safeguard France’s economic reputation,” he said.

Inflation and Tax Measures

Inflation, a key economic metric, is projected to slow to 2.4% this year, 1.6% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2027. These estimates hinge on tax policies outlined by the previous Barnier government, which may be revised or abandoned under Bayrou’s leadership.

As France navigates this period of economic and political turbulence, questions remain about the nation’s ability to implement the reforms needed to restore fiscal stability and investor confidence.

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Trump’s Auto Parts Tariffs Threaten Global Car Industry, Warns CLEPA

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The global automotive supply industry is facing significant challenges following the implementation of a 25% tariff on foreign-made cars imported into the U.S. and the upcoming 25% levy on imported auto parts, which will take effect on May 3. These tariffs, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, are expected to have far-reaching consequences for the car industry, leading to potential job losses, plant closures, and a decrease in investment across the sector.

Euronews spoke with Benjamin Krieger, Secretary General of the European Association of Automotive Suppliers (CLEPA), who outlined the potential impact of these tariffs on the global auto supply chain. CLEPA serves as a key link between European automotive suppliers and policymakers.

Krieger emphasized that the tariffs could severely increase production costs for automotive suppliers, many of whom operate in a highly integrated global market. “The industry is very globally connected, with European suppliers often investing in manufacturing facilities across the U.S., Europe, Canada, Mexico, and Asia. Components frequently cross multiple borders, and tariffs on these goods will raise costs, which are often absorbed by the automotive suppliers,” Krieger explained.

This increase in costs poses a serious threat to the competitiveness of the industry. With already slim profit margins, suppliers may face difficult decisions, including scaling back investments or even closing factories, leading to potential job losses. “The additional pressure will certainly result in factory closures and job losses,” Krieger warned.

As the tariffs target not just finished cars but also essential auto parts, they are likely to disrupt the industry’s delicate balance. “For suppliers, we either have to relocate production, abandon investments made in recent years, absorb the cost, or lose market share. There’s no ideal solution,” Krieger said, highlighting the tough choices ahead for suppliers.

Krieger also expressed concerns that the tariffs could reverse the progress made in the automotive sector over recent decades. “There’s a real risk that we could lose the gains we’ve built in the last decades,” he added, stressing the long-term damage these tariffs could inflict on the global automotive supply chain.

In response to the tariffs, Krieger suggested that the European Union must provide clear guidance on how to move forward. “We need clarity on the tariffs being applied and their implications for our trade relationships. Understanding the impact will help us quantify the problem and determine the effects on different European countries,” he said.

He also called for the EU to strengthen the competitiveness of its own auto supply industry. Countries like Germany, which have thriving automotive sectors, may be hit hardest by the U.S. tariffs, and will likely seek new markets to offset losses. “I hope for a measured response from the EU. It’s important that we show unity and pursue agreements with the U.S. while also prioritizing our strategic independence,” Krieger said.

As the situation unfolds, the automotive supply industry faces uncertain times, with both the U.S. tariffs and the EU’s response set to shape the future of the global car industry.

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Eurozone Growth Forecasts Slashed Amid Trump’s Tariff Shock

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Economists have sharply downgraded eurozone growth projections following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of 20% tariffs on European exports. The sweeping trade barriers have heightened concerns over a global economic slowdown, prompting expectations of accelerated rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), with April now seen as a likely starting point.

Tariffs Trigger Economic Concerns

Trump’s latest trade move has sparked widespread concerns among economists, who warn that the tariffs will hit European consumption and investment while shifting inflation fears to the background. The tariff shock is expected to weigh heavily on trade, business confidence, and foreign investments, increasing the likelihood of stagnation within the eurozone economy.

ABN Amro economists, led by Bill Diviney, anticipate a significant slump in European economic activity. “The EU has been hit with a 20% tariff. We expect this to drive a sharp fall in exports to the U.S. over the coming months, and we are significantly downgrading our 2025 growth forecast as a result,” Diviney stated. The bank now expects near-zero quarterly growth in the short term, with a likely contraction by the third quarter of 2025. However, a recovery is projected toward the year’s end, gaining momentum in 2026.

Bank Forecasts and Inflation Outlook

Bank of America estimates that the U.S. tariffs could reduce global GDP growth by 50 basis points, with the U.S. potentially losing up to 1.5 percentage points, while China and the eurozone face contractions of around one percentage point and 40–60 basis points, respectively.

“For the eurozone, if tariffs remain in place, we anticipate a 40–60 basis point decline in growth over the next few quarters, with the EU likely implementing some form of retaliatory measures,” economist Ruben Segura Cayuela said. However, the inflationary impact of EU retaliation is expected to be minimal, with a 10% tariff hike on U.S. imports raising inflation by only five basis points.

Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Sven Jari Stehn, also revised their projections, warning of increased downside risks. “Our baseline forecast of 0.8% eurozone growth in 2025 already accounted for a total trade-related GDP hit of 0.7%, but the magnitude of Trump’s tariffs raises the likelihood of a technical recession.” The bank now expects the ECB to cut its deposit rate to 1.75% by July, with an April cut deemed “very likely.”

ECB Rate Cuts on the Horizon

The consensus among major financial institutions is that the ECB will respond to the tariff-induced slowdown with aggressive monetary easing. ING’s global head of macroeconomics, Carsten Brzeski, likened the tariffs to a “tsunami,” warning of a prolonged downturn.

“This U.S. tariff move will hurt. Beyond trade, the real concern is its effect on confidence—European consumers and businesses are likely to hold back on spending and investment, keeping eurozone growth at a crawl,” Brzeski said. ING has accordingly lowered its eurozone GDP forecast for 2025 to 0.6% from 0.7% and for 2026 to 1.0% from 1.4%.

With economic headwinds mounting, analysts widely expect the ECB to begin rate cuts in April, potentially ushering in a series of reductions throughout the year to cushion the impact of weakened trade and investment. As uncertainty over global trade tensions intensifies, the eurozone’s economic trajectory remains precarious.

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Amazon Makes Surprise Bid for TikTok as US Ban Looms

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Amazon has submitted a last-minute bid to acquire TikTok, a Trump administration official confirmed on Wednesday, as the deadline for a US ban on the popular social media platform approaches. The offer was made in a letter addressed to Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, according to an official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The bid was first reported by The New York Times, coming just days before the deadline for TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell the platform to an approved buyer or face a ban in the United States. While President Donald Trump has suggested he may extend the deadline, he has also indicated that he expects a deal to be finalized by Saturday.

Possible Investors in TikTok

Amazon’s interest in TikTok adds another player to an already competitive field of potential buyers. Among the companies that have expressed interest in acquiring TikTok’s US operations are Oracle and Blackstone. Oracle, which secured a 12.5% stake in TikTok Global in 2020, has long been seen as a leading contender, given its role as the app’s cloud technology provider.

In January, AI startup Perplexity AI proposed a merger with TikTok’s US division, suggesting it could rebuild the platform’s algorithm while avoiding monopoly concerns. The company emphasized its commitment to maintaining American oversight and data security in a blog post outlining its vision for TikTok’s future.

Other potential buyers include a consortium led by billionaire Frank McCourt, who recently brought on Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian as a strategic adviser. The group has reportedly offered ByteDance $20 billion in cash. Meanwhile, Employer.com founder Jesse Tinsley has assembled a competing consortium and is said to be offering over $30 billion. Additionally, Wyoming entrepreneur Reid Rasner has reportedly submitted a bid worth approximately $47.5 billion.

Concerns Over National Security

TikTok’s future in the US remains uncertain due to national security concerns raised by American officials. Both the FBI and the Federal Communications Commission have warned that ByteDance could potentially share US user data with the Chinese government. However, TikTok has repeatedly denied these claims, stating it has never provided data to Chinese authorities and would refuse to do so if asked. To date, the US government has not presented concrete evidence supporting the allegations.

Trump’s relationship with TikTok has been complex. Although he has millions of followers on the platform and has credited it with helping him connect with younger voters, his administration has also pushed for restrictions on the app. During his first term, he issued executive orders targeting both ByteDance and Chinese messaging app WeChat, citing security concerns.

With the deadline for TikTok’s fate rapidly approaching, all eyes are on ByteDance and the US government to determine whether Amazon’s bid—or another offer—will secure the platform’s future in the United States.

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