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Hezbollah Weighs US-Israeli Ceasefire Proposal Amid Escalating Conflict
Hezbollah is reviewing a ceasefire proposal from the United States and Israel, according to sources familiar with the matter. The development comes as diplomatic efforts intensify to halt hostilities between Israel and the Lebanese militant group.
US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson presented the proposal to the Lebanese government on Thursday evening, a Lebanese official confirmed. Optimism surrounds the potential agreement, with Lebanese authorities expecting Hezbollah to respond officially by Monday.
“Diplomatic efforts are on fire now,” said the official, signaling a potential breakthrough.
Escalation and Human Impact
The conflict escalated in mid-September after months of border clashes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. The violence began when Hezbollah launched attacks in solidarity with Hamas and Palestinians in Gaza. Israel responded with a major offensive, targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure.
The offensive has taken a heavy toll on Lebanon. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, hundreds of civilians have been killed, over a million people displaced, and critical infrastructure severely damaged. Israeli strikes have intensified in recent days, focusing on Shia-majority areas under Hezbollah’s influence but also hitting buildings housing displaced families.
On Thursday alone, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 43 people in Lebanon, including eight civil defense workers. The Civil Defense Directorate reported that an Israeli strike destroyed its headquarters in the village of Douris, near Baalbek, while workers were inside responding to relief calls.
Proposal Details
The US-Israeli proposal seeks a 60-day cessation of hostilities as a foundation for a lasting ceasefire, aligned with UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war. The resolution mandates that armed groups south of Lebanon’s Litani River be limited to the Lebanese Army and UN peacekeeping forces.
Key provisions include the withdrawal of Israeli ground forces to positions behind internationally recognized borders and enhanced roles for the Lebanese Armed Forces in securing southern Lebanon and addressing smuggling routes.
The proposal was outlined to Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, who maintains close ties to Hezbollah. It marks the first significant ceasefire initiative from the US and Israel since late September, when a temporary truce collapsed following the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike.
Political Context
The negotiations also involve US President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team, although officials stress adherence to the Logan Act, which prohibits unauthorized individuals from conducting foreign policy. The Biden administration’s special envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, has been leading the diplomatic push.
US officials aim to finalize the agreement soon, with some Israeli officials advocating for a swift resolution to stabilize the region before Trump assumes office.
The US embassy in Beirut declined to comment on the negotiations. However, sources emphasize that the proposal could pave the way for a broader and more enduring resolution to the long-standing conflict.
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Russia Demands SWIFT Reconnection as Condition to Revive Black Sea Initiative
Russia has set forth a key demand for the restoration of the Black Sea Initiative—reconnecting its Agricultural Bank, Rosselkhozbank, to the SWIFT financial system. This request, which falls under the jurisdiction of the European Union (EU), comes amid ongoing negotiations between global powers on the war in Ukraine.
Partial Ceasefire and Black Sea Security Agreement
Following recent talks in Saudi Arabia, the United States announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a partial ceasefire specifically covering energy facilities. While this fell short of the broader ceasefire pushed by former President Donald Trump, the parties also agreed on measures to ensure the safe navigation of commercial vessels in the Black Sea and to prevent their use for military purposes.
However, the Kremlin quickly detailed additional conditions, demanding the lifting of sanctions on food exports, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, and cargo insurance. Most notably, Russia is insisting that Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions involved in agricultural trade be reinstated on SWIFT, a global messaging system that facilitates secure financial transactions.
EU’s Role and Sanctions History
SWIFT, headquartered in Belgium, falls under EU regulations. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU removed several Russian banks from SWIFT in 2022, including Sberbank, Credit Bank of Moscow, and Rosselkhozbank. The exclusion was a significant blow to Russia’s financial system, as it restricted the country’s ability to conduct international transactions.
Rosselkhozbank, a state-owned institution, plays a critical role in facilitating payments for Russia’s agricultural exports, a major revenue source through the global sale of wheat, barley, and corn. While the EU has not directly sanctioned Russian agricultural exports, the banking restrictions have complicated payments for these transactions, leading to the collapse of the initial Black Sea Initiative brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.
Diplomatic Tensions and Uncertain Outcomes
The demand to reinstate Rosselkhozbank puts the EU in a difficult position. Granting this request could signal a willingness to make concessions, potentially encouraging Russia to seek further sanctions relief. However, refusing it could provoke tensions with the Trump administration, which is eager to secure a ceasefire.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently opposed easing sanctions, arguing that they must remain in place until Russia ends its military aggression. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed this stance, stating that sanctions would only be lifted after Russia takes concrete steps toward peace.
As EU sanctions require unanimous renewal every six months, any member state could disrupt the process. Hungary, which has previously expressed opposition to sanctions, could leverage this situation to push for changes when restrictions are up for review on July 31.
Future of SWIFT and Global Financial Pressures
While the EU holds the power to reinstate Rosselkhozbank’s SWIFT access, the U.S. could signal leniency by ensuring that those engaging with the bank avoid legal repercussions. Analysts suggest that Russia’s demand may be a strategic move to test both Washington and Brussels, pressuring the EU to reconsider its stance on financial restrictions.
For now, the EU remains firm in its approach. France has indicated that sanctions should remain unless Russia agrees to a full ceasefire, reparations, and security guarantees for Ukraine. However, with negotiations ongoing and international pressure mounting, the debate over SWIFT and broader sanctions relief is unlikely to fade anytime soon.
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