As the Bundeswehr marks its 70th anniversary in Berlin, the celebration is shadowed by growing anxiety over Germany’s security. Around 20 US nuclear weapons are currently stored in the country—modernised, ready for use, and symbolic of Washington’s longstanding commitment to Europe’s defence. Yet experts warn that this deterrent may not guarantee protection if the United States hesitates to act in a crisis.

The weapons, believed to be B61-12 hydrogen bombs stored at Büchel Air Base in Rhineland-Palatinate, can be deployed by fighter jets such as the Eurofighter. Their destructive capacity remains immense. The bombs form part of the US nuclear umbrella extended to NATO allies since the Cold War, but concerns have deepened over the reliability of that shield under President Donald Trump, who has questioned aspects of NATO’s mutual defence commitments.

“It has never been and cannot be certain that the US will actually deploy nuclear weapons. It is not a guarantee. But the important thing is that the enemy cannot rule it out,” said political scientist and security expert Karl-Heinz Kamp, a former president of the Federal Academy for Security Policy and an associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “Deterrence is pure speculation. It has held up so far, for 50 years.”

Reports from several US media outlets suggest that the United States brought new nuclear weapons to Europe over the summer, with signs including flight paths and the delivery of F-35 fighter jets designed to carry tactical nuclear weapons. Germany has also ordered a fleet of F-35s, expected to arrive in 2026.

Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, nuclear deterrence has returned to the forefront of European security debates. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly brandished nuclear threats, touting his arsenal of about 5,500 warheads and showcasing intercontinental missiles such as the RS-24 “Yars.” Kamp noted that while Putin uses nuclear rhetoric as a political tool, actual deployment remains unlikely. “Whoever shoots first, dies second. That is not a desirable state of affairs,” he said.

Still, questions persist about whether US nuclear weapons in Germany could be relocated to NATO’s eastern flank, including the Baltic states, Poland, or Romania, as a stronger warning to Moscow. Kamp acknowledged this possibility, calling such a move a potential “signal to Russia.”

Anti-nuclear groups, including ICAN Germany, continue to demand the withdrawal of US weapons from German territory, arguing that they make the country a target rather than a protectorate.

While some analysts argue that Germany could technically produce its own nuclear arsenal, Kamp described the idea as politically untenable given Germany’s post-war commitments. The nation is bound by the 1990 Two Plus Four Treaty and the 1969 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, both of which prohibit it from developing nuclear weapons.

Public opinion also stands firmly against the idea. Only about a third of Germans support developing domestic nuclear arms. For now, Germany’s security remains anchored within NATO, protected not only by the United States but also by the nuclear capabilities of France and the United Kingdom.