Scientists have warned that a major rockslide could occur at Hochvogel, a mountain on the border between Germany and Austria, with between 250,000 and 400,000 cubic metres of rock potentially breaking away from its summit.

The warning follows a smaller collapse in June, when around 2,000 cubic metres of rock fell from the mountain in the Allgäu Alps. Researchers monitoring the site say movement along existing cracks has accelerated, raising concerns that a much larger section could become unstable.

Hochvogel stands 2,592 metres above sea level and forms part of the Allgäu High Alps. A major fissure in the summit has existed since the 19th century and has gradually widened. Records indicate that the crack was once approximately shoulder-width, but it now stretches several metres across.

Scientists from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have monitored the mountain for 12 years. Since 2018, their work has included permanently installed sensors and measuring equipment, alongside drone surveys using laser scanners.

More than 30 sensors now collect data around the summit, recording movements with millimetre precision. During the spring, instruments detected movement of up to five millimetres per week. By comparison, the Alps generally shift by an average of around 1.8 millimetres a year.

Geology professor Michael Krautblatter, who leads the TUM research team, returned to the summit with colleagues in early October to inspect the terrain and monitoring equipment.

The main fissure was described by TUM in 2024 as being up to six metres wide, around 35 metres long and approximately 60 metres deep. Researchers are also concerned about a newer crack on the south-west ridge, known as “Fissure 6”, where the highest movement rates have been recorded.

The instruments transmit information several times an hour, allowing researchers to assess changes remotely and identify potential warning signs. Krautblatter told the German Alpine Club that similar early-warning systems are operating at only two other locations, Partnach Gorge and Höllental Gorge.

Scientists believe weather conditions could be contributing to the increasing instability. Johannes Leinauer, a member of the TUM team, told Deutschlandfunk that heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and melting snow had a clear influence on movement at Hochvogel.

He added that thunderstorms were becoming more frequent and intense because of climate change, potentially affecting the speed and frequency of rockfalls.

The mountain has long been closed to climbers approaching from the Austrian side, although the route from Germany remains open. Researchers hope continuous monitoring will help authorities identify dangerous conditions and restrict access before a collapse occurs.

Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukraine are raising doubts about the European Union’s financial support strategy, as Kyiv faces mounting economic damage, growing military needs and a significant funding shortfall for 2027.

European diplomats acknowledge that the war is likely to continue longer than previously expected, putting pressure on the bloc to reconsider how it will finance Ukraine’s defence and public services in the coming years.

“This war will last longer than we thought,” one European diplomat said, warning that Ukraine’s needs would continue to grow without a clear agreement on how additional assistance would be funded.

Another diplomat said the EU needed to demonstrate that its position remained unchanged, maintaining support for Ukraine while increasing pressure on Moscow.

Russian attacks have struck infrastructure, including railways, bridges, power stations, warehouses, medical facilities, schools and data centres. Recent strikes have killed civilians, including more than 30 people in Kramatorsk after a glide bomb attack set two public buses on fire, according to reports cited by Euronews.

Kyiv also suffered a major power disruption, raising concerns about the impact of further attacks as winter approaches. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the bombardment, describing it as terror against civilians, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the attacks amounted to war crimes.

The escalation is also damaging Ukraine’s economy. Repeated airstrikes have disrupted businesses, forced closures, increased costs and reduced profits. Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea has added to the pressure by restricting Ukrainian farmers’ ability to export grain, cutting off an important source of national income.

The worsening situation has placed the EU’s €90 billion support loan under scrutiny. Agreed last year, the package was intended to cover about two-thirds of Ukraine’s financial needs in 2026 and 2027, based on expectations that the war could end this year.

Ukraine’s Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko has warned that preparing the 2027 budget will be particularly difficult. Kyiv estimates it needs international assistance to address a funding gap of $78 billion, equivalent to about €70 billion.

The European Commission has not endorsed that full estimate, but Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis acknowledged on Friday that Ukraine faced a substantial shortfall. Brussels plans to provide €45 billion next year under the existing loan and has promised faster payments, subject to domestic reforms.

EU leaders have yet to formally reopen discussions on additional assistance, as member states negotiate the bloc’s next long-term budget. However, diplomats expect the issue to return to the agenda amid rising borrowing costs, sluggish economic growth and opposition from far-right parties.

The absence of US aid, previously a major source of military support, has further complicated the outlook.

Some EU countries have renewed calls to use frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine, arguing that the existing loan will not be sufficient. Belgium, which holds much of the immobilised assets, has resisted the proposal, while France and Italy remain cautious.

Issuing more joint EU debt is also politically difficult because of rising borrowing costs. Increasing national contributions could place a disproportionate burden on Germany, the Netherlands and Nordic countries.

Brussels is therefore urging allies, including the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan, to increase their support while officials examine alternative funding options.

Dombrovskis said the EU remained committed to ensuring Ukraine received the financial assistance it needed for as long as the war continued.

Iran’s military said it retained full control of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strategic waterway could be fully reopened within seven days if Tehran’s conditions were met and hostile measures against the country were lifted.

The statements came as Iran faced growing economic pressure, with the rial falling to record lows, Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigning and the United States claiming that Tehran had not loaded any crude onto tankers during September.

Brigadier General Aziz Jafari, commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Joint Air Defence Headquarters, said all movements through the Strait remained under the control of the Iranian armed forces despite changes in US tactics.

“All movements (in Hormuz) are under the control of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic,” Jafari said.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that Iran had not loaded crude oil onto tankers during September, arguing that the Trump administration was targeting Tehran’s main source of revenue.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged in August that restrictions were disrupting oil exports, saying the country had previously been able to sell oil but was now unable to do so at the same level.

Paknejad’s resignation was officially attributed to family and personal matters. However, his departure came amid speculation about the impact of reduced oil exports on government finances. Before his resignation was announced, Paknejad said in a video carried by Iranian media that revenue from oil already sold would be collected and that the process would continue.

The acting oil minister has pledged to maximise production and maintain exports through new strategies.

Despite pressure on Iranian exports, oil shipments from other parts of the region remained high. Ship-tracking company Kpler estimated crude exports from the region excluding Iran at between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day during the final week of September, compared with a pre-war regional average of about 18 million barrels per day.

Iran’s currency has also come under severe pressure. The euro rose above 300,000 tomans on the informal market, while the US dollar reached 270,000 tomans, more than double its level of about 135,000 tomans at the beginning of the year. One toman is equal to 10 rials.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack each day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Araghchi told foreign ambassadors in Tehran that the conflict could not be resolved militarily and called for negotiations based on fairness. He warned that any renewed military confrontation would trigger a stronger Iranian response.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran had received US proposals through intermediaries but rejected what he described as one-sided demands.

He said the Strait would remain closed until Iran’s seven conditions, based on the Islamabad memorandum, were met.