It is an expensive gamble, but also an attempt at technological emancipation from the major programmes of the past, in which Italy has often played a subordinate role. In the coming weeks, Italy’s parliament will decide whether to commit substantial resources to the Global Combat Air Programme (Gcap), a joint effort with the United Kingdom and Japan to develop next-generation combat aircraft.

The aim of the Gcap is to create a sixth-generation air combat system by 2035, designed to gradually replace platforms such as the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Mitsubishi F-2. The system will operate in complex warfare environments, with a strong emphasis on interoperability with allied forces. According to Italy’s Defence Multi-Year Planning Document, the country’s contribution to the programme is estimated at around €9 billion through 2035, with more than €600 million allocated for 2025 alone. The cost does not include future expenses for production or the operational lifecycle of the aircraft.

The Gcap marks a potential shift in Italy’s defence strategy. Previous programmes, such as the Eurofighter and F-35, left the country largely dependent on stronger partners, with limited access to key technologies. In contrast, the Gcap grants Italy equal participation, with a 33.3 percent share alongside the UK and Japan, allowing for greater technological and industrial returns. Unlike the F-35, which involved significant U.S.-controlled “black boxes” restricting local involvement, the Gcap is structured to provide Italian industries and institutions greater operational sovereignty.

The programme merges the British Tempest and Japanese FX projects, and will initially operate alongside Italy’s Eurofighters and F-35s before gradually assuming full operational responsibilities. It will also incorporate uncrewed combat air systems (UCAS) and auxiliary technologies, enhancing Italy’s capabilities in drone integration and advanced communication networks.

Experts highlight the programme’s strategic importance. “We need to equip ourselves looking ahead to the next 10, 20, 30 years to maintain deterrence against Russia and contain Chinese assertiveness,” said Alessandro Marrone, head of the Defence, Security and Space programme at the Istituto Affari Internazionali.

Despite strong political and industrial support, the Gcap faces challenges. High levels of classified information, supply chain integration across large industrial groups, SMEs, and start-ups, and the need for a steady pipeline of skilled engineers all present potential obstacles. Delays or fragmented funding could affect technology development and industrial returns, while international cooperation depends on clear export and component exchange rules.

The programme’s first phase, financed with €3.85 billion through 2026, focuses on developing and testing key technologies. The next phase, costing around €4.5 billion, will produce a demonstrator aircraft, with entry into service planned around 2040.

If approved, the Gcap could secure Italy a prominent role in the next generation of global combat aviation, marking a decisive step toward greater autonomy and technological leadership in defence.