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EU Holds Steady on €650 Billion Defence Spending Estimate Amid Mixed Member State Response

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The European Commission is maintaining its projection that EU member states could invest up to €650 billion in defence over the next four years, despite fewer than half of the bloc’s governments formally requesting the fiscal leeway needed to ramp up spending.

The estimate, initially presented in March as part of the Commission’s “Readiness 2030” defence strategy, was designed to support the temporary activation of the “national escape clause” in the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact. This mechanism allows member states to exceed the usual 3% of GDP deficit threshold without penalty, provided the extra spending is directed toward defence in light of the current geopolitical climate.

By Friday, only 13 out of 27 EU member states had submitted formal requests to use the clause. These include Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The Commission had asked for coordinated submissions by April 30, but clarified that this was a “soft deadline,” and late applications would still be considered ahead of its Spring Semester Package report due June 4.

Speaking to reporters, Commission spokesperson Balazs Ujvari acknowledged that the €650 billion figure was a “ballpark estimate” based on assumptions made before knowing how many member states would participate. “We wanted to give an order of magnitude of the fiscal space that could be made available,” he explained, adding that a more accurate estimate will only be possible next year after 2025 defence expenditure data is collected.

To gain approval, member states must demonstrate exceptional circumstances justifying the deviation, show that the deviation does not threaten medium-term fiscal sustainability, and prove that their spending is linked directly to defence.

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Some of the requesting states, including Belgium, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, are already under Excessive Deficit Procedures due to deficits exceeding the 3% cap. In such cases, the Commission said it would factor in the flexibility provided by the escape clause during its assessments.

Separately, the Commission is also preparing to launch the SAFE programme, offering up to €150 billion in loans for defence spending through jointly procured, EU-made weapons systems. These funds, unlike national budgets, will be centrally raised and distributed, aiming to foster defence industry cooperation across the bloc.

The SAFE initiative is still under review by the Council, with an application window expected to open six months after its formal adoption.

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Suspected Drone Strike Hits UK Base in Cyprus Amid Escalating Iran Conflict

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A suspected drone strike hit a British military base in Cyprus shortly after Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the United Kingdom had agreed to allow the United States to use its bases for attacks on Iran’s missiles and launch sites, marking the first apparent impact of the Iran war on European soil.

The UK Ministry of Defence said a drone struck RAF Akrotiri, a key Royal Air Force base on Cyprus’ southern coast, just after midnight on Monday. British Defence Secretary John Healey told officials that ballistic missiles had been fired toward Cyprus around the same time. He said there were no casualties.

Cyprus confirmed the incident, describing it as involving an unmanned drone that caused limited damage at the base. Government spokesperson Constantinos Letymbiotis said the event occurred shortly after midnight and that authorities were assessing the situation. He did not provide further operational details.

RAF Akrotiri is one of the UK’s most strategically important overseas bases and has played a role in regional security operations. The reported strike comes amid rising tensions following US and Israeli attacks on Iranian military targets and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the Gulf.

Earlier, Starmer confirmed that the UK had agreed to permit the US to use British bases for operations targeting Iran’s missile systems and launch infrastructure. The decision signaled deeper British involvement in efforts to counter Iran’s military capabilities.

European leaders condemned Iran’s recent attacks. In a joint statement, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz strongly criticised Iranian strikes on countries in the region and said they would take steps to defend their interests and those of their allies. They indicated that defensive measures could include proportionate action aimed at stopping missile and drone launches at their source.

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Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, suggested in a television interview that some of the country’s military units were acting independently under general pre-issued instructions. His comments came after questions about Iranian strikes on Gulf Arab nations that have previously mediated between Tehran and Western powers.

Iran has launched attacks against Qatar, which shares a major offshore gas field with the Islamic Republic and has played a diplomatic role in regional negotiations. The United Arab Emirates and Oman have also been targeted. Oman had recently served as an intermediary in nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States.

The strike on RAF Akrotiri underscores the widening scope of the conflict, with military actions now extending beyond the Middle East and into European territory linked to allied operations.

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Cruise Passengers Stranded Amid Escalating Middle East Crisis

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The Persian Gulf is currently characterised by hostilities. The Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping, with only vessels connected to China or Russia allowed to pass. The escalating crisis in the region has left thousands of tourists stranded on cruise ships and disrupted air travel.

On Sunday afternoon, a missile struck the water near the Mein Schiff 4, operated by TUI Cruises, while the ship was docked in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Clouds of black smoke were reported over the water, according to the Bild newspaper. The vessel carries approximately 2,500 passengers and 1,000 crew members, with many due to return to Germany from Dubai. The situation on board is tense, and it is not yet clear if anyone was injured.

Security measures on the ship remain strict. Passengers are prohibited from entering outside decks, are advised to avoid windows, and receive regular alerts on their smartphones about potential incoming missile threats.

A sister ship, Mein Schiff 5, berthed in Doha, Qatar, is also affected. Passengers attempting to fly home from Doha on Saturday were forced to return to the ship after flights were canceled. Many had already boarded aircraft and had to leave luggage at the airport, waiting around ten hours before being taken back to the ship in the evening.

Other cruise lines are similarly affected. Six vessels are currently docked across ports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. These include the MSC Euribia from MSC Cruises, the Celestyal Discovery and Celestyal Journey from Celestyal Cruises, and the Aroya from the Saudi operator Aroya Cruises.

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The closure of airspace in multiple countries in the region has compounded the situation, preventing passengers from flying home. Thousands remain stranded, unsure when they will be able to continue their journeys or be evacuated safely.

The crisis follows US and Israeli strikes in the region on Saturday, which prompted retaliatory attacks by Iran targeting military positions in the Persian Gulf. Cruise passengers, many of whom expected a calm holiday, have instead faced a sudden escalation in regional tensions.

Authorities in ports and embassies are coordinating with shipping companies to maintain safety and provide updates, but the rapidly evolving security situation has made evacuation and travel plans uncertain. Tourists are advised to follow official guidance and avoid unnecessary movement on or around their vessels.

The disruption highlights the wider impact of escalating hostilities in the Gulf, affecting not only commercial shipping but also tourism and international travel. Passengers on affected cruise ships and flights face prolonged delays as authorities work to stabilize the situation and ensure safety in the region.

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Azerbaijan Commemorates Khojaly Massacre with New Memorial and National Ceremony

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Azerbaijan held nationwide commemorations on Thursday to mourn the hundreds of civilians killed in February 1992 in the town of Khojaly during the Karabakh conflict with Armenia. President Ilham Aliyev led the ceremonies, inaugurating a new Khojaly Genocide Memorial Complex in Baku to honor the victims of what he described as “the greatest tragedy for the Azerbaijani people.”

Thousands of people gathered at the Khojaly Massacre Memorial in Baku for the National Day of Remembrance. A minute of silence was observed across the country as citizens paid tribute to those who lost their lives over 30 years ago.

Azerbaijani authorities state that 613 civilians, including women and children, were killed when Armenian forces, with the support of the former Soviet Union’s 366th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, attacked Khojaly. Dozens more were reported missing or injured during the assault, which occurred amid the war between ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia and Azerbaijani troops over the Karabakh region and surrounding areas.

Human Rights Watch conducted its own investigation into the incident, attributing direct responsibility for the civilian deaths to Karabakh Armenian forces. Armenia has repeatedly denied the accusations, arguing that the reported death toll was exaggerated and that casualties resulted from fighting between the two sides.

Despite differing accounts, the Khojaly tragedy remains a deeply significant event in Azerbaijan’s collective memory. Commemorations continue to emphasize the human cost of the conflict and the impact on generations of Azerbaijanis.

This year’s ceremonies took place against the backdrop of a peace and reconciliation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both nations have pledged to work toward a more stable and peaceful future following decades of conflict and suffering on both sides.

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President Aliyev emphasized the importance of remembering the past while looking forward. The newly inaugurated memorial complex aims to provide a permanent site for reflection, ensuring that the victims of Khojaly are remembered by future generations.

The National Day of Remembrance has become a focal point for public reflection and national unity, drawing participants from across Azerbaijan. Observers note that the ceremonies serve both to honor the victims and to reinforce awareness of the historical and ongoing challenges in the Karabakh region.

Over 30 years after the massacre, Khojaly continues to hold a central place in Azerbaijani history. Thursday’s events highlighted the nation’s efforts to commemorate the past while supporting dialogue and cooperation with Armenia to foster lasting peace in the South Caucasus.

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