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EU Holds Steady on €650 Billion Defence Spending Estimate Amid Mixed Member State Response

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The European Commission is maintaining its projection that EU member states could invest up to €650 billion in defence over the next four years, despite fewer than half of the bloc’s governments formally requesting the fiscal leeway needed to ramp up spending.

The estimate, initially presented in March as part of the Commission’s “Readiness 2030” defence strategy, was designed to support the temporary activation of the “national escape clause” in the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact. This mechanism allows member states to exceed the usual 3% of GDP deficit threshold without penalty, provided the extra spending is directed toward defence in light of the current geopolitical climate.

By Friday, only 13 out of 27 EU member states had submitted formal requests to use the clause. These include Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The Commission had asked for coordinated submissions by April 30, but clarified that this was a “soft deadline,” and late applications would still be considered ahead of its Spring Semester Package report due June 4.

Speaking to reporters, Commission spokesperson Balazs Ujvari acknowledged that the €650 billion figure was a “ballpark estimate” based on assumptions made before knowing how many member states would participate. “We wanted to give an order of magnitude of the fiscal space that could be made available,” he explained, adding that a more accurate estimate will only be possible next year after 2025 defence expenditure data is collected.

To gain approval, member states must demonstrate exceptional circumstances justifying the deviation, show that the deviation does not threaten medium-term fiscal sustainability, and prove that their spending is linked directly to defence.

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Some of the requesting states, including Belgium, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, are already under Excessive Deficit Procedures due to deficits exceeding the 3% cap. In such cases, the Commission said it would factor in the flexibility provided by the escape clause during its assessments.

Separately, the Commission is also preparing to launch the SAFE programme, offering up to €150 billion in loans for defence spending through jointly procured, EU-made weapons systems. These funds, unlike national budgets, will be centrally raised and distributed, aiming to foster defence industry cooperation across the bloc.

The SAFE initiative is still under review by the Council, with an application window expected to open six months after its formal adoption.

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Iran Executes Three Men Over January Protests Amid Rising War Tensions

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Rights groups said the trio, who included a teenager who had taken part in international wrestling competitions, were executed without a fair trial and had given confessions under torture.

Iran executed three men on Thursday who were accused of killing police officers during nationwide protests in January, raising fears among activists of a potential surge in hangings as the country faces war with Israel and the United States. The executions mark the first publicized hangings related to the nationwide demonstrations, which were met with a severe crackdown by Iranian authorities.

The men, Mehdi Ghasemi, Saleh Mohammadi, and Saeed Davoudi, were hanged in the city of Qom, south of Tehran, after being convicted of waging war against God, a capital offense under Iran’s sharia known as moharebeh, according to the judiciary’s Mizan news agency. Authorities said the trio were involved in the killing of two police officers and carried out “operational actions” in favor of Israel and the United States.

Rights groups raised immediate concerns over the fairness of the trials. Saleh Mohammadi, a teenage wrestling champion who had competed internationally, was reportedly denied proper legal defense and forced to give confessions during fast-tracked proceedings, according to Amnesty International. Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights said the three men were “sentenced to death following an unfair trial, based on confessions obtained under torture,” noting that Mohammadi had just turned 19.

Legal affairs monitor Dadban added that the men were “deprived of effective access to independent counsel and the right to defense,” arguing that under such circumstances, the death penalty amounts to “extrajudicial killing.”

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The hangings come a day after the execution of Kouroush Keyvani, a dual Iranian-Swedish national accused of spying for Israel, which drew condemnation from Stockholm and the European Union. That execution was the first publicly announced since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, escalating a conflict that has spread across the Middle East.

Activists warned that Iran could use such executions to intimidate citizens. “We are deeply concerned about the risk of mass executions of protesters and political prisoners in the shadow of war,” said Iran Human Rights. “These executions are carried out to spread fear in society, as the Islamic Republic knows that the main threat to its survival comes from the Iranian people demanding fundamental change.”

The January protests initially erupted over rising living costs and quickly evolved into nationwide anti-government demonstrations, peaking on 8–9 January. Rights groups estimate that thousands of protesters were killed in the crackdown, with the Human Rights Activists News Agency recording over 7,000 deaths, while Tehran acknowledges more than 3,000 fatalities, including security personnel and civilians.

Hundreds of individuals are still facing charges connected to the protests that could carry the death penalty. Iran remains one of the world’s most prolific executioners, with at least 1,500 people hanged last year alone, according to Iran Human Rights.

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EU Ministers to Discuss Expanding Naval Mission to Strait of Hormuz as Oil Prices Surge

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Foreign ministers from the European Union are scheduled to meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss whether the bloc’s naval mission should be extended to the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions in the Middle East and soaring global oil prices.

The discussions come as the conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets. The narrow maritime passage handles roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil shipments, making it one of the most critical trade routes for energy supplies.

According to a person familiar with the matter, EU ministers will consider expanding the bloc’s naval mission Operation Aspides to include patrols in the Strait of Hormuz.

Operation Aspides was launched in early 2024 to protect international shipping in the Red Sea after attacks by Yemen’s Houthi forces on commercial vessels traveling through the region.

Pressure from Washington has been increasing in recent days. Donald Trump urged several major powers, including the United Kingdom, France, China and Japan, to deploy naval vessels to the area to safeguard oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran announced last week that it would block the waterway in response to US-Israeli strikes on its territory. Since then, several vessels have reportedly come under attack in the region, increasing fears about disruptions to global energy supplies.

Despite the pressure from Washington, some European officials remain cautious about expanding the mission. Johann Wadephul confirmed that the issue would be discussed at the meeting in Brussels but expressed skepticism about the need for such an operation.

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In an interview with German public broadcaster ARD, Wadephul said he did not see an immediate requirement for extending the naval mission and ruled out Germany’s participation for now. He also called on the United States and Israel to provide clearer information about their objectives and strategy in the war against Iran.

His remarks reflect broader concerns among European officials who say Washington has not fully explained the timeline or long-term goals of the military campaign.

Meanwhile, global oil markets remain under pressure as the conflict continues. Chris Wright said on Sunday that the war with Iran could end within a few weeks. He added that energy prices would likely fall once stability returns to the region and shipping lanes reopen.

Despite those reassurances, crude oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel, raising concerns among governments and economists about the potential impact on inflation and economic growth worldwide.

The meeting in Brussels is expected to focus on whether European countries should play a larger role in protecting maritime traffic in the Gulf as tensions continue to escalate.

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Qatar Intercepts Missiles as Authorities Activate Emergency Preparedness Measures

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Qatar intercepted missiles targeting the country early Saturday, prompting precautionary evacuations in parts of the capital as authorities activated emergency preparedness measures and reassured residents about the stability of supply chains.

The Qatari defence ministry said the country’s armed forces intercepted incoming missiles in two waves during the early hours of the morning. Journalists and residents in Doha reported hearing air raid alerts followed by the sound of interceptor missiles destroying incoming projectiles at around 2:00 a.m. and again at approximately 5:45 a.m., with loud explosions shaking parts of the city.

Authorities said the situation was handled by defence systems, while the government began precautionary safety steps in several areas.

The interior ministry announced temporary evacuations affecting residents who received notifications through the National Alert System. Officials said alternative accommodation had been arranged for those impacted, though some residents opted to move to other safe locations until the threat subsided.

Witnesses reported evacuations in parts of Msheireb Downtown Doha, a central district that includes government offices and international companies. Some residents and journalists also said areas within Education City were cleared as a precaution. The district hosts branch campuses of several American universities and international institutions.

Officials have not publicly listed the exact neighbourhoods included in the evacuation notices, urging the public to rely on official announcements and follow instructions from authorities.

Shortly before the evacuation alerts were issued, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps published a warning on social media advising employees working at major US technology companies in Gulf countries to leave office areas along with residents living nearby. The message referenced technology hubs in cities including Doha, Dubai and Riyadh.

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Qatari officials moved quickly to reassure the public that emergency planning and supply chains remain secure. Interior Minister Sheikh Khalifa bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani said the country maintains strategic reserves of essential medicines sufficient for about nine months, along with medical supplies capable of supporting healthcare services for up to a year if needed.

Authorities also emphasised the continued flow of goods into the country. National carrier Qatar Airways said it has transported nearly 300 tonnes of essential cargo into Qatar since the beginning of March. The shipments include medicines, baby formula, fresh food and medical equipment.

The airline said cargo flights are continuing through temporary air corridors authorised by the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority to maintain supply routes despite regional airspace disruptions.

Government officials said the country’s emergency plans are designed to ensure public safety while maintaining essential services during periods of regional tension. Authorities urged residents to remain calm and stay informed through official communication channels as security forces continue monitoring the situation.

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