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EU Holds Steady on €650 Billion Defence Spending Estimate Amid Mixed Member State Response

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The European Commission is maintaining its projection that EU member states could invest up to €650 billion in defence over the next four years, despite fewer than half of the bloc’s governments formally requesting the fiscal leeway needed to ramp up spending.

The estimate, initially presented in March as part of the Commission’s “Readiness 2030” defence strategy, was designed to support the temporary activation of the “national escape clause” in the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact. This mechanism allows member states to exceed the usual 3% of GDP deficit threshold without penalty, provided the extra spending is directed toward defence in light of the current geopolitical climate.

By Friday, only 13 out of 27 EU member states had submitted formal requests to use the clause. These include Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The Commission had asked for coordinated submissions by April 30, but clarified that this was a “soft deadline,” and late applications would still be considered ahead of its Spring Semester Package report due June 4.

Speaking to reporters, Commission spokesperson Balazs Ujvari acknowledged that the €650 billion figure was a “ballpark estimate” based on assumptions made before knowing how many member states would participate. “We wanted to give an order of magnitude of the fiscal space that could be made available,” he explained, adding that a more accurate estimate will only be possible next year after 2025 defence expenditure data is collected.

To gain approval, member states must demonstrate exceptional circumstances justifying the deviation, show that the deviation does not threaten medium-term fiscal sustainability, and prove that their spending is linked directly to defence.

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Some of the requesting states, including Belgium, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, are already under Excessive Deficit Procedures due to deficits exceeding the 3% cap. In such cases, the Commission said it would factor in the flexibility provided by the escape clause during its assessments.

Separately, the Commission is also preparing to launch the SAFE programme, offering up to €150 billion in loans for defence spending through jointly procured, EU-made weapons systems. These funds, unlike national budgets, will be centrally raised and distributed, aiming to foster defence industry cooperation across the bloc.

The SAFE initiative is still under review by the Council, with an application window expected to open six months after its formal adoption.

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Spain and Portugal Hit by New Storms, Death Toll Rises

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Spain and Portugal endured fresh storms and torrential rain on Saturday, claiming another life just days after Storm Leonardo caused deadly flooding and widespread damage.

One person was killed in Portugal as heavy rainfall from Storm Marta swept across the Iberian Peninsula. Authorities reported that a 46-year-old member of the emergency services drowned in a river at Campo Maior, in the central Portalegre district, while attempting to cross a flooded area.

The extreme weather forced three municipalities in Portugal to postpone a presidential vote scheduled for Sunday by a week. Storms in recent weeks have already taken a heavy toll: Storm Kristin killed at least five people in Portugal last week, while Storm Leonardo claimed another victim on Wednesday.

Officials warned that the risk of flooding from the Tagus River in the central Santarém region remained at its highest level. Further south, in Alcácer do Sal, floodwaters from the Sado River had receded to the banks, though the city had previously been submerged, forcing residents to evacuate. Alcácer do Sal lies about 90 kilometres south of Lisbon.

In Spain, Storm Marta prompted the closure of dozens of roads as it moved northeast. In Ávila, a snow plough driver died on Saturday after the vehicle plunged down a 20-metre slope at the El Pico pass. According to the Directorate General of Traffic (DGT), more than 100 roads were closed in the early morning, mostly due to flooding, snow, or ice.

The province of Cadiz was the hardest hit, with several roads rendered impassable, followed by Cordoba and Seville. Snowstorms in mountainous regions led to road closures in Granada, Asturias, Salamanca, and Navarre.

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Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) said rainfall would ease on Sunday in many areas but persist in some regions, including the Strait of Gibraltar, the Alboran Sea, Andalusian mountain ranges, the Balearic Islands, northeastern Catalonia, and the Cantabrian Sea. Locally heavy showers are expected, with thunderstorms and hail reported in some areas.

Authorities in both countries continue to urge residents to exercise caution, avoid flooded zones, and stay updated on weather alerts. Emergency services have been deployed to assist those affected by rising waters and to prevent further casualties.

The repeated storms across the Iberian Peninsula highlight the ongoing vulnerability of the region to severe weather events in recent weeks, with communities struggling to recover from back-to-back floods and heavy rains.

Spain and Portugal’s governments have stressed the importance of preparedness, especially in flood-prone regions, as meteorologists warn that unsettled weather may continue to affect the peninsula over the coming days.

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German Troops in Lithuania Face Hybrid Threats Amid Rising Tensions With Russia

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The German army brigade stationed in Lithuania is not under direct fire, but troops report facing hybrid attacks, including surveillance, psychological operations, and drone activity, as tensions with Russia persist in the Baltic region.

Soldiers have described unusual incidents, including mysterious phone calls where conversations from hours earlier were played back by unknown callers. “A comrade phones home, speaks for half an hour, and then gets a call from an unknown number. He answers – and hears his own conversation from earlier, recorded and played back,” Joshua Krebs wrote in his book, Inside Bundeswehr, calling the tactic “uncanny.”

Drones have also reportedly been used to monitor sensitive defence systems and exercises involving Germany’s Battletank Brigade 45 in Lithuania. Last year, a Russian reconnaissance aircraft entered Belarusian airspace during the Bundeswehr’s exercise Iron Wolf, raising concerns about Russian surveillance in the region.

Germany’s Inspector General, Carsten Breuer, described such incidents as “proof of the very real threat to Lithuania.” Federal Defence Minister Boris Pistorius echoed the warning during a meeting with his Lithuanian counterpart in Berlin, stressing that hybrid warfare poses a particular concern for Lithuania and the wider Baltic region.

The risks are compounded by Russian incursions into European airspace. In October 2025, two Russian fighter jets briefly entered Lithuanian airspace for approximately 18 seconds before turning back under NATO escort. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the incident as a “provocation,” with the aircraft thought to have flown from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.

Given the Baltic states’ proximity to Russian territory, the region is under constant NATO monitoring. Germany, Spain, and the UK currently lead the mission to police Baltic airspace, while Germany also supports ground operations, including deploying a mobile air force command post for air surveillance from January to March this year.

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Experts note that hybrid attacks often exist in a legal grey area. Unlike conventional military operations, many hybrid actions, such as surveillance or unmarked troop movements, cannot be directly attributed to a single actor, and international law does not automatically classify them as armed attacks under Article 51 of the UN Charter. The aim is often psychological: to provoke, unsettle, and signal presence without triggering a military response.

Incidents reminiscent of the “little green men” in Crimea have occurred in the Baltics. In December, Russian border guards briefly crossed into Estonia without authorization, prompting diplomatic protests rather than military retaliation. Armed men in unmarked uniforms were also spotted near the Estonian border earlier in the year, reinforcing concerns about Russia’s hybrid strategies.

According to Pistorius, these tactics are part of a broader pattern of Russian pressure. “The threat posed by Russia is felt more acutely in Lithuania and across the Baltic region than elsewhere in Europe,” he said, citing provocative airspace incursions and intelligence-gathering operations as ongoing challenges for NATO forces in the region.

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Greenland Mayor Condemns Comedian’s Flag Stunt Amid Tensions with US

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The mayor of Greenland’s capital has urged media professionals and content creators to act responsibly after a German comedian attempted to hoist the US flag in Nuuk, drawing outrage from local residents.

Bavarian comedian Maxi Schafroth, 41, tried to raise the Stars and Stripes near the city’s cultural centre on Thursday. Passers-by confronted him after he claimed to be a US official. Witnesses reported that locals reacted angrily, and Schafroth left the scene amid disapproving looks. Local authorities subsequently fined him, according to reports.

Avaaraq Olsen, mayor of Kommuneqarfik Sermersooq, the district that includes Nuuk, described the stunt as “immensely harmful.” She said the incident was particularly upsetting for children and families, who have already been anxious over US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to seize Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory.

“Raising a flag at our capital cultural centre, the flag of a military superpower that for weeks has been implying military force against our country, is not a joke,” Olsen said in a statement. “When you amplify those fears for content, clicks, or laughs, you are not being bold or creative. You are adding to the distress of an already vulnerable population. So, pause before you film. Think before you stage something ‘funny.’ Consider whether your next question or stunt will inform the world or simply make a child cry or a family feel less safe in their own country.”

Schafroth is known in Germany for his work on the satirical programme “Extra Drei,” broadcast by the regional NDR channel, which attracts over one million viewers. NDR expressed regret over the incident in statements to Germany’s Der Spiegel and the Ritzau news agency.

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The stunt comes amid heightened international attention on Greenland following Trump’s long-standing territorial interest in the Arctic territory. Trump described owning Greenland as essential to US national security, claiming without evidence that Russia or China would otherwise seize control. His statements sparked a serious diplomatic crisis, considered the most severe in NATO’s history since the alliance was established in 1949.

Although the US president later backtracked on threats to use force, discussions between Washington, Copenhagen, and Nuuk are ongoing. Greenland’s government has been working to manage the stress and anxiety caused by the situation and to reassure its population that their safety remains a priority.

Local authorities stressed that Greenlanders, particularly children, remain worried over the uncertainty surrounding the territory’s international status. Olsen said the flag stunt, though intended as a humorous act, highlighted the need for content creators to consider the real-world impact of their actions on communities already facing heightened tension.

The incident underscores the lingering sensitivity in Greenland following months of international attention, and the city’s leadership has called for respect and caution in public displays that could inflame fear or insecurity among residents.

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