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Study Warns Aid Cuts Could Cause Millions of Preventable Deaths by 2030

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As cuts in international aid continue worldwide, a new study projects that 22.6 million people could die by 2030, including 5.4 million children under the age of five.

The research, conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and funded by the Rockefeller Foundation, examines 93 low- and middle-income countries home to 6.3 billion people, or roughly 75 percent of the world’s population. Researchers warn that the decline in official development assistance (ODA) threatens to reverse decades of progress in global health.

Using two decades of data from 2002 to 2021, the team modelled outcomes under different funding scenarios. “We don’t want to accept this as the new normal, we don’t want to accept this situation, this constant reduction,” said Davide Rasella, study coordinator at ISGlobal, in an interview with Euronews Health.

In 2023, total ODA reached a record $250.3 billion (€212.3 billion), with France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States providing around 70 percent of the total. All of these major donors, except Japan, reduced their contributions in 2024 for the first time in three decades, marking the first overall fall in international aid in six years.

The United States dismantled its foreign aid agency, USAID, in 2025, and other countries followed with further cuts. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria saw contributions drop sharply from $15.7 billion in 2022 to $11.34 billion in 2025. Some donors, including the European Union, have not yet confirmed their pledges.

“People are going to die. Unless we restore the level of funding, millions of people are going to die. There’s no doubt of it,” Rasella said. He added that the next challenge is how to allocate the remaining funds most effectively.

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The study highlights the critical role ODA has played in global health. Between 2002 and 2021, aid programs helped reduce child mortality by 39 percent, prevent 70 percent of HIV/AIDS deaths, and cut deaths from malaria and nutritional deficiencies by 56 percent.

Researchers modelled two scenarios for 2030. A mild defunding scenario, reflecting a 10.6 percent reduction in aid, could result in 9.4 million preventable deaths, including 2.5 million children under five. A more severe defunding scenario could see more than 22.6 million additional deaths, including 5.4 million children. “At least three out of every four people on the planet live in countries where two decades of development gains could be reversed,” the authors said.

Cuts in aid affect more than health outcomes. They also reduce the number of doctors on the ground and limit the exchange of critical information, including epidemic preparedness and responses to climate-related shocks.

Eric Pelofsky, vice president for global economic recovery at the Rockefeller Foundation, said investing in development not only saves lives but promotes global stability and prosperity. He noted that aid is often framed domestically as a trade-off, but protecting global health and stability ultimately benefits donor countries.

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New Study Reveals How Coffee May Help Protect the Body From Ageing

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A new study has uncovered a key biological mechanism that may explain why coffee has long been linked to healthier ageing and a lower risk of chronic disease.

Researchers at Texas A&M College of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences found that compounds in coffee interact with a protein in the body known as NR4A1, a receptor involved in regulating stress responses, inflammation and cellular repair. The findings shed new light on how coffee may help protect the body from age-related decline.

For years, studies have associated regular coffee consumption with a longer life and reduced risk of conditions such as heart disease, cancer and cognitive decline. Until now, however, the biological processes behind those benefits have remained largely unclear.

The research team identified NR4A1 as a critical target for several naturally occurring compounds in coffee, particularly polyphenols and other polyhydroxylated substances. These compounds bind to the receptor and appear to influence how it functions.

NR4A1 acts as what scientists call a nutrient sensor, responding to dietary compounds and helping the body adapt to stress and damage. It plays an important role in controlling inflammation, maintaining energy balance and promoting tissue repair — all essential processes in healthy ageing.

Stephen Safe, one of the study’s lead researchers, said the findings provide a clearer understanding of coffee’s protective effects. He explained that NR4A1 helps limit damage when tissues are under stress, and that its absence can worsen the effects of injury or disease.

Laboratory tests showed that coffee compounds reduced cellular damage and slowed the growth of cancer cells. When researchers removed NR4A1 from the cells, those benefits disappeared, strongly suggesting that the receptor is central to coffee’s protective action.

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The study also highlights that coffee’s health effects are likely driven by more than caffeine alone. Decaffeinated coffee has also been linked to improvements in learning and memory, indicating that other components, including polyphenols, may play a significant role.

Recent research has suggested that moderate consumption of caffeinated coffee may also reduce anxiety, improve attention and vigilance, and lower levels of inflammation.

Scientists caution that while the findings are promising, more research is needed to determine how significant the NR4A1 pathway is in humans and how it interacts with other biological systems.

Still, the discovery offers an important step toward understanding why coffee remains one of the most widely studied beverages in nutrition science. It also reinforces the idea that compounds found in everyday foods and drinks can play a meaningful role in supporting long-term health and resilience as people age.

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Study Finds Rise in 11 Cancers Among Younger Adults in England

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A major study has found that rates of 11 types of cancer are increasing among younger adults in England, raising fresh concerns among researchers about factors driving the trend.

The study, conducted by the Institute of Cancer Research and Imperial College London, examined cancer diagnoses between 2001 and 2019 in adults aged 20 to 49. It identified rising incidence in a range of cancers, including breast, colorectal, pancreatic and kidney cancers.

The full list includes breast, colorectal, pancreatic, kidney, liver, gallbladder, thyroid, ovarian and endometrial cancers, as well as oral cancer and multiple myeloma, a form of blood cancer.

Researchers noted that for most of these cancers, rates have also increased among older adults, where cancer remains far more common. This suggests that some shared risk factors may be affecting multiple age groups.

Two cancers, however, stood out. Rates of colorectal and ovarian cancer rose only among younger adults, pointing to possible age-specific causes that are not yet fully understood.

Scientists examined a range of established cancer risk factors, including smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity and body weight. While these factors are known to contribute significantly to cancer risk, they do not appear to fully explain the recent rise in cases among younger people.

In fact, many of these traditional risk factors have either remained stable or improved over recent decades. Smoking rates have declined, alcohol consumption has generally fallen or levelled off, physical inactivity has decreased, and intake of red and processed meat has dropped.

Obesity was the notable exception. Rates of obesity have risen steadily across all adult age groups and remain a significant contributor to cancer risk. Even so, researchers found that obesity alone could not account for the broader increase in cancer diagnoses among younger adults.

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This was particularly true for cancers commonly associated with excess body weight, such as bowel, kidney, pancreatic, liver, gallbladder and endometrial cancers. While rising obesity may be playing a role, it does not fully explain the trend.

The findings suggest that other factors may be contributing. Researchers say further investigation is urgently needed into possible causes, including environmental exposures, changes in diet or lifestyle during childhood, and other early-life influences.

They also pointed to the possibility that improved diagnostic tools, increased screening and greater public awareness may be leading to more cases being detected.

Public health experts say the study highlights the need for continued prevention efforts, particularly in tackling smoking and obesity, which remain more common in disadvantaged communities. As researchers work to better understand the causes, the rise in cancer among younger adults is likely to remain an important area of focus for health authorities.

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AI Tool Uses Facial Ageing to Help Predict Cancer Survival

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Researchers in the United States have developed an artificial intelligence system that uses changes in facial appearance over time to help predict how cancer patients may respond to treatment and their chances of survival.

The tool, known as FaceAge, was created by scientists at Mass General Brigham. It estimates a person’s biological age from a photograph, offering a measure of how old the body appears physiologically rather than simply counting years since birth.

Biological age can differ from chronological age, as factors such as illness, stress and lifestyle often accelerate the ageing process. Researchers say facial features may provide important clues about a person’s overall health.

Earlier studies using FaceAge found that cancer patients typically appeared about five years older biologically than their actual age. Those with older-looking facial profiles were also more likely to experience poorer outcomes following treatment.

In the latest research, scientists introduced a new metric called Face Aging Rate, or FAR, which tracks changes in biological age over time by comparing multiple photographs. The method is designed to monitor how quickly a person appears to age, potentially offering a real-time indicator of health.

The study analysed images of 2,276 cancer patients treated at Brigham and Women’s Hospital between 2012 and 2023. All participants had undergone at least two courses of radiation therapy, with photographs taken routinely during their treatment.

Researchers found that, on average, patients’ facial ageing progressed about 40% faster than their actual chronological ageing. Those with higher FAR scores had significantly lower survival rates, particularly when the photographs were taken more than two years apart.

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The findings suggest that changes in facial appearance over time may provide valuable insight into a patient’s condition and long-term prognosis.

The study also examined FaceAge Deviation, a separate measure comparing biological age from a single photograph with a person’s actual age. While higher scores were also linked to poorer outcomes, FAR proved to be a stronger and more reliable predictor of survival over extended periods.

Researchers believe combining both measures could offer a more complete picture of a patient’s health and disease progression.

Dr Raymond Mak, a radiation oncologist at Mass General Brigham Cancer Institute, said the technology could help doctors refine treatment plans, improve patient counselling and determine the most appropriate follow-up care.

The team also sees broader potential beyond oncology. Future research will explore whether the technology could help assess other chronic illnesses or even provide early health insights for otherwise healthy individuals.

To support ongoing studies, researchers have launched a public web portal where users can upload a photograph, receive a FaceAge estimate and contribute data to further development of the tool.

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