Health
Study Warns Aid Cuts Could Cause Millions of Preventable Deaths by 2030
As cuts in international aid continue worldwide, a new study projects that 22.6 million people could die by 2030, including 5.4 million children under the age of five.
The research, conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and funded by the Rockefeller Foundation, examines 93 low- and middle-income countries home to 6.3 billion people, or roughly 75 percent of the world’s population. Researchers warn that the decline in official development assistance (ODA) threatens to reverse decades of progress in global health.
Using two decades of data from 2002 to 2021, the team modelled outcomes under different funding scenarios. “We don’t want to accept this as the new normal, we don’t want to accept this situation, this constant reduction,” said Davide Rasella, study coordinator at ISGlobal, in an interview with Euronews Health.
In 2023, total ODA reached a record $250.3 billion (€212.3 billion), with France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States providing around 70 percent of the total. All of these major donors, except Japan, reduced their contributions in 2024 for the first time in three decades, marking the first overall fall in international aid in six years.
The United States dismantled its foreign aid agency, USAID, in 2025, and other countries followed with further cuts. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria saw contributions drop sharply from $15.7 billion in 2022 to $11.34 billion in 2025. Some donors, including the European Union, have not yet confirmed their pledges.
“People are going to die. Unless we restore the level of funding, millions of people are going to die. There’s no doubt of it,” Rasella said. He added that the next challenge is how to allocate the remaining funds most effectively.
The study highlights the critical role ODA has played in global health. Between 2002 and 2021, aid programs helped reduce child mortality by 39 percent, prevent 70 percent of HIV/AIDS deaths, and cut deaths from malaria and nutritional deficiencies by 56 percent.
Researchers modelled two scenarios for 2030. A mild defunding scenario, reflecting a 10.6 percent reduction in aid, could result in 9.4 million preventable deaths, including 2.5 million children under five. A more severe defunding scenario could see more than 22.6 million additional deaths, including 5.4 million children. “At least three out of every four people on the planet live in countries where two decades of development gains could be reversed,” the authors said.
Cuts in aid affect more than health outcomes. They also reduce the number of doctors on the ground and limit the exchange of critical information, including epidemic preparedness and responses to climate-related shocks.
Eric Pelofsky, vice president for global economic recovery at the Rockefeller Foundation, said investing in development not only saves lives but promotes global stability and prosperity. He noted that aid is often framed domestically as a trade-off, but protecting global health and stability ultimately benefits donor countries.
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